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Three years have passed over without any sequence of return risks or asset draw-down after retirement from full-time job as employee in Sep 2016.
So far, there is no impact on net worth as cumulative cash in exceeds cumulative cash out.
Hi Uncle8888,
ReplyDeleteCash shield, yield shield, bond shield.
I think very hard for negative sequence of returns risk to penetrate your triple shields! LOL!
Based on your 3 Taps pie chart, roughly 14% of your total portfolio in risk assets (stocks).
Using SG large caps as proxy for your stocks positions, the maximum drawdowns over past 22 years if 14% Singapore stocks and 86% cash:-
1) -8.6% (GFC)
2) -7.5% (AFC)
3) -4.5% (2015 China / Oil Crisis)
4) -3.1% (Dotcom / SARS, but a long frustrating 3 years of +/- 3% up & down sideways sandpaper grinding)
Do note that all above drawdowns recovered ... but of course take time & patience (which depending on personal circumstances & goals, may or may not have).
Total gains of 85.3% or CAGR of 2.76% over 22 years LOL.
Using Monte Carlo statistical projections for the above 14:86 asset allocation:-
Worst case drawdown (Great Depression style) -- -11.5% (i.e. stocks position almost wiped out!)
Median "big bear" drawdown -- -8.1%
Super kiasi. LoL
DeleteIf we know when to go then retirement planning will be simpler
Delete