LOL! Yeah, the longer I am in the markets, the more I realise I don't know. Kekeke!!
Mea culpa --- I was too early in deploying my war chest (about 29% so far). No regrets on the last 15 % points though, as my contrarian indicators were hit. :P
My dual momentum portion is still telling me to remain in cash, although following this indicator to the letter will likely mean missing out on the initial 20% of the move from the absolute bottom.
For those who are patient can also use the % of S&P500 stocks above their 200DMA:
Uncle8888,
ReplyDeleteLOL! Yeah, the longer I am in the markets, the more I realise I don't know. Kekeke!!
Mea culpa --- I was too early in deploying my war chest (about 29% so far). No regrets on the last 15 % points though, as my contrarian indicators were hit. :P
My dual momentum portion is still telling me to remain in cash, although following this indicator to the letter will likely mean missing out on the initial 20% of the move from the absolute bottom.
For those who are patient can also use the % of S&P500 stocks above their 200DMA:
Compare this indicator with the S&P500 chart during GFC
Current picture today
E.g. wait till 15% of S&P500 stocks are above their 200DMA before going back in.
You'll probably miss 15% to 20% of the initial up move, but this is the price to pay for greater assurance that you are in a sustainable uptrend.
Although this focuses on the S&P500, but as correlations go to 1 during crisis period, will also be very relevant to S'pore & Asian markets too! :)