At the recent gathering recently, I was discussing with another blogger and we both shared the same concern that most "investors" are comparing the next bear market with 2008/09 GFC.
Everyone seems to be complacent the next bear market would be the quick dip and recovery like we did in March 2009.
What if the next bear is more like 2000 to 2003? Death by a thousand cuts kind?
Lower highs and lower lows, with frequent false dawns and bear market rallies to create new hopes only to dash them again and again.
What's 3 years? Look at Japan's 3 decades!
Anyone trying to promote to Japanese investors Passive Indexing on their local local Nikkei 225 in Japan may have some selling to do!
I think promoting World Index or Asia ex-Japan may be a better sell ;)
hopefully, finally with some of you peers and qian bei bloggers, the blur blur kind will wise up to the passiveinvesting/CNAV/pseudovalueinvesting/impactinvesting/millionaireinvesting/socialinvesting/crowdinvesting snake oil that is being sold/marketed/educated/expounded/usedtoalleviateonesstanding and stop being lazy in their investing.
if you have excess funds, its ok to invest in my opinion.
but both are right, its diffinately not going to be 08/09! its either less worst than 08/09 or even many times worst than 08/09! like japan but this time around the globe.
but i still hold my opinion that ordinary folks who earn their living through hard work throughout their lives should not even touch the stock market at all.
i have a friend who like many is in the middle of losing all his savings and hard earn money in the stock market unless he can hold on to his head and bite it throught!
the only time i will recomend investing or trading is that person is willing to lose all the money that he had commited to invest or in trading. otherwise, stay out!
what ordinary folks know about investing and what to invest in????
a good friend of mine just pass me a list of all his CDP statement which show all of his holdings, so many counters, shares that i never heard before, at least 50 of them. wah liao! what is he investing??
now he is seeking advise how to do with them?
how the hell i know? sell them if you have no idea what you have thats my answer.
CW,
ReplyDeleteAt the recent gathering recently, I was discussing with another blogger and we both shared the same concern that most "investors" are comparing the next bear market with 2008/09 GFC.
Everyone seems to be complacent the next bear market would be the quick dip and recovery like we did in March 2009.
What if the next bear is more like 2000 to 2003? Death by a thousand cuts kind?
Lower highs and lower lows, with frequent false dawns and bear market rallies to create new hopes only to dash them again and again.
What's 3 years? Look at Japan's 3 decades!
Anyone trying to promote to Japanese investors Passive Indexing on their local local Nikkei 225 in Japan may have some selling to do!
I think promoting World Index or Asia ex-Japan may be a better sell ;)
Yeah, I guess when you have that as a benchmark and most recent, everyone will flock to it.
DeleteKeppel will go back to $12 in a year time right? That's what happen during gfc right?
hopefully, finally with some of you peers and qian bei bloggers, the blur blur kind will wise up to the passiveinvesting/CNAV/pseudovalueinvesting/impactinvesting/millionaireinvesting/socialinvesting/crowdinvesting snake oil that is being sold/marketed/educated/expounded/usedtoalleviateonesstanding and stop being lazy in their investing.
Deletehmm...
ReplyDeleteIndeed, it is dangerous to assume the next bear to be the same as 2009 bear.
Scary... I mean the Japan 3 decades.
Different market, different characteristic. Not sure? Then spread the bet wider
DeleteDoable. Average cost 5~10% higher than index.
ReplyDeleteCan also consider shorting the index instead of doubling down. The disadvantage is no dividend due to shorting.
When it is down below <1800, then switch to invest during max pessimism.
correction, when you short, you are paying the dividends plus finance (due to low interest rate) plus stock borrowing cost on top of the usual cost!
DeleteThanks for the correction. :)
DeleteIf your broker is charging you interest when you short, you should be change broker. Mine is paying me interest instead.
DeleteLinda,
DeleteCan you share the name of your broker for us to verify?
I suspect you are talking about other instruments (like spot forex) and not equities ;)
if you have excess funds, its ok to invest in my opinion.
ReplyDeletebut both are right, its diffinately not going to be 08/09! its either less worst than 08/09 or even many times worst than 08/09! like japan but this time around the globe.
but i still hold my opinion that ordinary folks who earn their living through hard work throughout their lives should not even touch the stock market at all.
i have a friend who like many is in the middle of losing all his savings and hard earn money in the stock market unless he can hold on to his head and bite it throught!
Deletehow many of us can?
the only time i will recomend investing or trading is that person is willing to lose all the money that he had commited to invest or in trading. otherwise, stay out!
DeleteThen where should ordinary folks put their money?
DeleteFD? CPF? Buy annuity for retirement?
anywhere that is safe, the safer the better.
Deletewhat ordinary folks know about investing and what to invest in????
ReplyDeletea good friend of mine just pass me a list of all his CDP statement which show all of his holdings, so many counters, shares that i never heard before, at least 50 of them. wah liao! what is he investing??
now he is seeking advise how to do with them?
how the hell i know? sell them if you have no idea what you have thats my answer.