20 years of data points and back-testing Read? Peter Lynch on His Secret to Superior Returns Uncle8888's 20 years of data points by back-testing; it also provided the evidence that it is worth the time, effort, patience, and discipline to build larger war chest and systematically deploys this war chest with right position sizing over a bigger number of stocks particularly fallen blue chips during market crash. Position sizing for each counter has to be right; and the number of different counters to diversify across the market crash will depend on fire power of our war chest. Simpler to execute???
We live, earn, spend, save and invest! 20 years worth of statistics for one data point in Singapore. (1) Earned income after tax (2) Earned income after tax and excluding CPF i.e. cash available for spending (3) Household expenses for family of five; and supporting three children up to completion of their local university study (4) Net investment gains from investing stocks in SGX (5) CPF mandatory contributions Hmm ... the financial capability to inject regular investing capital into his investment portfolio is his weakness in this 20 years of investing journey. :-(
20 years across market cycles of Bulls and Bears; Uncle8888 is finding harder and harder to understand these common investing lessons/wisdom prescribed by many investment writers! 1. It’s impossible to predict the market 2. Stay focused on long-term returns It may be true for someone who has accumulated some investing capital from their savings and just begins to invest for the first time.
Don't try to predict the market and start investing!
But; for veteran retail investors who have been through one or more market cycles themselves may know that that these two lessons may not be really wise!
1. It’s impossible to predict the market
2. Stay focused on long-term returns
Yes. It is impossible to predict the market; but the next market crash will certainly and definitely happen!
Unless some Gurus can come out with a solid model to construct a defensive investment portfolio that will NOT plunge 30% to 50% from the last peak value of our investment portfolio during market crashes; then (1) and (2) are worth believing!
Hmm ... nowadays; no Gurus are conducting courses on Permanent Portfolio. How come?
After embarrassing investing method, strategies, and money management from 2006 to 2007; Uncle8888's understanding on (1) and (2) has changed.
(1) It is impossible to predict the market; but we can still choose to earn very low return and preparing large fire power to achieve Barbell return at the next market cycle!
(2) Focus on long-term returns over market cycles is NOT about taking those plunges during market crashes and then recovering back to the previous peak value of investment portfolio or higher during the next Bulls with positive returns over long-term.
We may take years to accumulate those paper gains but losing them in just one to two years; and then will take another more years just to recover back these paper losses.
Those financially stronger retail investors may recover differently and faster from these paper losses by injecting more and more capital into their investment portfolio.
Read? One Uncommon Act Of Kindness! (6) This should be a rare incident happening at LRT station! How to release someone trapped in LRT station??? Punggol Nibong LRT station which doesn't have a control room. When Uncle8888 tapped out his card to exit LRT gantry gate; he did notice the man at the adjacent gantry gate encountered error when he tapped his wallet. This is common sight happening at any MRT/LRT gantry gate. Nothing unusual about it! Uncle8888 went to location map board to locate the right staircase Exit leading to the HDB block that he was going to. But when he passed by the gantry gates again; he saw that same man who was looking stunned as he was trapped inside LRT and probably thinking how to exit since he couldn't tap out due to card error. Uncle8888 approached him and thinking how to help him. There is no control room to reset card! How? Hmm .. then Uncle8888 asked the man to come to the Entry gate and he tapped his card to open the gate and the man quickly walked out! Uncle8888 is on monthly pass so no issue of fare reduction. Okay lah! LOL! But, now Uncle8888 knew that his card would have issue to enter as the card was not tapped out. Hmm .. need to tap out!
So Uncle8888 from outside and stretched forward to tap his card on the Exit. Done! All these actions certainly were captured on LRT station CCTV. Hopefully; he doesn't get called by Police for investigation! :-( Good deed ended up with troublesome!
Read? I am on Retirement Sum Scheme (RSS) (3) So based from CPF official reply ... We refer to your enquiry of 20 December 2019. We'd like to clarify that your payout will be calculated based on your current Retirement Account savings, to last you up to 20 years from your payout eligibility age (i.e. 65), with a base interest of 4% a year. The extra interest paid by the Government (up to 2% per year) on your Retirement Account savings will be used to extend your payouts beyond 20 years, capped at your age of 90. Members who are concerned about the risk of outliving their savings can consider joining CPF LIFE before age 80. This will eliminate longevity risk as they will receive CPF LIFE payouts for as long as they live. (1) your payout will be calculated based on your current Retirement Account savings, to last you up to 20 years from your payout eligibility age (i.e. 65), with a base interest of 4% a year. Uncle8888's monthly payout from 65 to 85 is estimated to be $1,180
The extended monthly payout from 86 to 90 is calculated based on
the extra interest paid by the Government (up to 2% per year) on your Retirement Account savings will be used to extend your payouts beyond 20 years, capped at your age of 90.
After 20 years in the stock market; his own data points show clearly on the debate on Market Timer for capital gains vs Buy and Hold for dividends; who will win bigger in the Game? Market Timer will require great craftsmanship to win big; while the Time in the Market will need mental strength to stay stronger to receive stream of Panadaols to ease heartache over volatility.
How would you update your advice today? If you cannot find growth companies in innings three through five of the ballgame, look at turnarounds, special situations, back at the cyclicals. There’s a real shortage now of growth companies. That is a red flag, because all the money is flowing into [a few companies]. There’s an end to that game. It will scare me if this trend continues for a couple more years. What’s your view of unicorns? That’s a big difference today—companies stay private a lot longer. The next Google might stay private for an extra 10 years. That makes it more difficult [for individual investors]. The day they come public, a thousand organizations have looked at it, and they’re probably pretty fairly priced. Fidelity can put 5% of funds into these things. The public can’t do that. I’d rather look at something that’s been around for a long time. Where are the opportunities now? I’m looking at industries that are doing badly; that for some reason will get better. Shipping. If you want to buy a ship, it’s a two- or three-year wait. People haven’t ordered ships for a long time, because by the time one comes in, prices may be down again.
Energy services is awful; that could have a major turn in the next year or two. Oil is interesting. Look, longer term, solar, windmills really work. But you need natural gas and oil to bridge to this. Everybody’s assuming the world’s going to not use oil for the next 20 years, or next year. China might sell five million electric vehicles next year, but they might also sell 17 million internal combustion engines. They don’t have old cars to retire. There are no electric airplanes. Near term, liquid natural gas and liquid petroleum gas might replace diesel fuel for trucks. I’m buying companies that I don’t think will go bankrupt. They’ve got to be around the next 18 to 24 months, or I have no interest. Anything else do you want investors to know?
If you’re going to invest, you have to follow certain rules. If you want to ski, you ought to go to the bunny hill and learn how to stop. It doesn’t make you an Olympic skier, but then in certain cases, you have an edge on the Fidelitys of the world. You might be in the cement industry, and suddenly orders pick up. You can see things better. The one thing I want everybody who is buying individual stocks to get is that they have to understand the story, the five reasons something is going to go right for the company. If you can’t convince an 8-year-old why you own this thing, you probably shouldn’t own it. Don’t invest in a company before you look at the financials. If you made it through fifth grade, you can handle the math.
Read? Dec 2019 Investing Performance Report : 20 Years in local SGX stock market only The moral story of Grasshopper and Ant in the stock market From 2000 to 2007; Uncle8888 was the Grasshopper in the stock market and especially from 2006 to 2007 singing loudly and cheeerfully in the Summer Bull. Bom pi pi! Setting new record high one after another without injecting a single cent as capital into his investment portfolio. In the Summer; why Grasshopper wants to worry about Winter like Ant. Waste time and waste opportunity to enjoy the Boom! Then what happened after next? 8 years of slow climb to the Peak in the Summer 2007 and just one yearto rapid fall to the Low in the Winter 2009! Then it took another 9 long years just to recover from the last Winter and set a new record high in Jan 2018! 10 long years of Summer! Ant has accumulated so much food to survive the Winter and the food is rotting in the Freezer! A long, long boring Summer for the Ant! What next for the Ant? Read? My Own Psychology Of Losses: Losing Money And Deploying Cash Is Not The Same!
Based on Uncle8888 DIY calculator on his computed RA balance at 65. The CPF estimated monthly payout of $1,180 for 23 years estimated duration is close to his own calculation based on 4% CPF RA compound interest. However; what is the monthly payout after 23 years from those accumulated extra interests compounded over 35 years is NOT known? CPF calculator stopped functioning!!! Spoil liao!!! LOL! Retirement Sum Scheme QWhy is extra interest used to extend payout duration by up to 5 years after age 85 and not use extra interest to increase payout amount? A
Using extra interest to extend payout duration ensures that more members are protected against the risk of outliving their payouts. In 2018, more than half of residents aged 65 were expected to live beyond age 85. This would mean that the majority of members on Retirement Sum Scheme (RSS) would outlive their payouts if the extra interest is not used to extend payouts for up to five years. With the extension of RSS payouts up to age 90, up to two in three members will have protection against the risk of outlving their payouts.
Three years have passed ... Replacement income for the last three years since 2017
Monthly and annual household expenses
Projected impact of year-on-year inflation on household expenses didn't seen to happen. Somehow we will react to some price increase and make adjustment for alternatives. Yearly Cash-In and Cash-Out Spending below replacement income and manage to have some small savings over the last three years.
So far, Uncle8888 has received five good/kind intention of advice/suggestions to get a proper job with CPF and medical benefits. Two out of the five advice/suggestions is to go for fully subsidized course to get certification since Uncle8888 is still eligible for these subsidies. As response to their advice/suggestion Uncle8888 showed them ..
The moral of story ... Don't anyhow suggest/give advice without knowing someone more in depth; and especially true for investment blogger like Uncle8888!
If you're looking for an eco-friendly vacation spot where you can enjoy the beautiful scenery while walking on a well-maintained trail to stay fit, there's no better place to go than Jeju Island. In the local dialect, "olle" originally referred to the narrow path between the street and one's doorstep. Jeju Olle-gil, a series of walking trails that stretchs around the entire coast of the island, is one of the many attractions and activities that Jeju has to offer. The trails pass through various landscapes along the way, including small villages, beaches, farms and forests. Each route offers a unique opportunity to soak in the beauty of Jeju and the island's culture. There is currently a total of 26 routes, consisting of 21 main routes and five sub-routes. Each course differs in length and difficulty, allowing visitors to choose the appropriate course that meets each individual’s level. The shortest route takes approximately one hour and the longest up to eight hours to complete. As each course is equipped with directions and guiding posts along the way, even first-time visitors will be able follow the trail conveniently. Visitors can get more information about Jeju Olle-gil Trail by visiting the official website.
Uncle8888 plans to walk Route 1, 6, 7 and 18; and if still have time will do Route 10 too.
4 Hallasan Trails – Which one is best and how to get there? There are four Hallasan trails on and around the mountain, but only two of these trails will take you all the way up to the volcano’s crater lip – the Gwaneumsa trail, and the Seongpanak trail: Gwaneumsa Trail – 8.7km (one-way) and 8-10 hours return hike <– the BEST views! Seongpanak Trail – 9.6km (one-way) and 7-9 hours return hike <– the EASIEST hike! Eorimok Trail – 4.7km (one-way) and 2.5 hours return hike
Yeongsil Trail – 3.7km (one-way) and 2 hours return
After the last trip of steep walking up to Aowanda (奧萬大) suspension bridge; Auntie8888 is quite weary of another steep walking up mountain hike. LOL! So forget about best view!
No need for Opposition party to form the next Govt to return my CPF. Just a few clicks on 'my cpf Online Services' and demand PayNow! Few seconds later, Uncle8888 received his CPF payment!
Thank you for using 'my cpf Online Services'.
We refer to your withdrawal application for members age 55 and above - Payment via PayNow (Transaction Number) submitted on 05 Dec 2019. Your application has been successfully processed. The payment has been credited to your bank account linked to your Singapore NRIC under PayNow. $24K CPF Interests Withdrawal 1) Deducted interests from SA first i.e. Jan to Nov (11 months) is $1,534.94 2) Remaining balance deducted from OA i.e. $22,465.06
Uncle8888 was surprised when the dental counter staff said no payment is required. FREE? Arh! Hmm! When he looked at the bill ... OIC! Lucky Merdeka generation after Pioneer generation who has better subsidies from Big Daddy!
Long term investing is all about recognizing market cycles exist and then figure out for ourselves how much money from the stock market we can comfortably received and keep it safely from giving back at the next Bear.
Patience, discipline and financial capacity to accept this trade off and expecting larger and better outcome when that opportunity finally strikes!
Read? Discovering Johore by Bus and Walk - Mersing Monday, 23 March 2015 Kota Tinggi - Larkin RM 4.80. Friday, 29 Nov 2019 After 4 yrs, still RM 4.80 But, with minor trade off. Bus still has air - "con" and good life span!
SINGAPORE - People in the Republic are contributing more to their retirement funds, said the Central Provident Fund Board in a statement on Thursday (Nov 28). Singaporeans added nearly $1.6 billion in total under the Retirement Sum Topping-Up Scheme between January and October. CW8888: Wow! Of course, we love our CPF Retirement scheme! Please keep our money with CPF to compound at 4%. Bom pi pi! Hmm ... Those opposition parties campaigning on Return My CPF to form the next government still got chance ah??? CPF lovers over-run CPF haters! No?
The total top-up amount was an increase from $1.5 billion over the same period last year. CPF members topped up a total of $2 billion to their accounts for the whole of 2018. In 2015, the total top-up amount was $934 million. The scheme helps people to build their retirement savings by topping up their own Special Account or Retirement Account, or those of their loved ones. "These top-ups, which comprise cash top-ups and CPF transfers, help build up members' retirement savings. With higher CPF bala nces, these members would receive higher payouts in their retirement years," the CPF Board said. Members have also been able to have the Basic Retirement Sum, or more, in their CPF accounts as a result of the top-ups received, said the board. Over the last three years, close to 24,000 members attained the Basic Retirement Sum, or more, after receiving top-ups to their CPF.
SINGAPORE: Workers in Singapore received a bump of 2.2 per cent in their income in 2019, according to the Labour Force in Singapore Advance Release report released on Thursday (Nov 28).
The nominal median income of Singapore residents on full-time employment increased this year toS$4,563from the S$4,437 recorded in 2018, the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) report said.
This year's 2.2 per cent real income growth is lower than the growth of 4.4 per cent in 2018.
From 2014 to 2019, real median income increased by 3.8 per cent annually - "significantly higher" than the 1.9 per cent annual growth in the preceding five years.
The findings were based on the Comprehensive Labour Force Survey conducted in mid-2019 by the ministry's research and statistics department.
Low-wage workers - those at the 20th percentile - experienced 4.4 per cent annual growth in median income from 2014 to 2019, higher than the 3.8 per cent growth for those at the 50th percentile and significantly higher than in the preceding five years.
The employment rate for residents aged 25 to 64 inched up to 80.8 per cent in June 2019 from 80.3 per cent in June 2018.
Among those aged 65 and above, employment rate "rose firmly" to 27.6 per cent from 26.8 per cent last year.
Resident employment continued to grow this year despite "increasing economic headwinds", said MOM.
"However, the unemployment situation is uneven, affecting non-PMETs more than PMETs," it added.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR NON-PMETS RISES
Unemployment among non-PMETs increased to 4.7 in June 2019 from 4.0 per cent a year prior, due to cyclical effects such as the US-China trade conflict which affected manufacturing output and retail trade.
But the increase in their long-term unemployment rate was "slight" - from 0.7 per cent to 0.8 per cent.
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