As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

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This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

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Value Investing
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Tuesday, 14 November 2017

2007 vs 2017. Ten Years Later!


On first look; it appeared that Uncle8888 has encountered his first lost decade in the stock market with little growth in his investment portfolio.

What is difference between 11 Oct 2007 (Bull Market STI at 3,876) vs 14 Nov 2017 (Bullish market STI at 3,399)?

Lost decade?



7 comments:

  1. Uncle8888,

    You exited more than 1/3 your stocks in 2014 & early-2015, hence you more or less escaped the full impact of 2015 to Feb-2016 drawdown. :)

    At the same time, without going back into stocks in early-2016 & preferring to keep plenty of dry gun powder for "blood in the streets" situation, you also skipped the recent upsurge. That's the price to pay for hedging / insurance.

    Anyway the important thing to do is to stick to your plan. Markets do occur in waves, up & down. Payday is simply a matter of waiting! LOL!

    As don't need to depend on dividends or trading, hence should be easier for you to maintain the master plan. And not try to 2nd guess or jump the gun or use methodology that doesn't jive with your temperament & psychology.

    As for STI numbers, let me offer some consolation to those really B&H types.

    STI itself doesn't give the whole picture as it doesn't include dividends. I prefer to use MSCI S'pore Net Returns index for performance with after-tax dividends re-invested:

    Oct 2007: 10,120
    Oct 2017: 12,718
    10 year annualized return: 2.31% p.a.

    Ok ok ... if you talk about REAL inflation-adjusted returns ... then it's flat. Hohoho!!

    ReplyDelete
  2. i like to add my 2 cents worth.

    Spur is powerful with analysis with mathematics as a matter of facts.

    i definitely can't prove him right or wrong(with my primary maths).

    But I have come across an articles that said this guy bought S & P 500 at one of those the peaks.

    And continued buying with out selling or taking out dividends(reinvested)

    After 20 or so years he still made money.

    That's another example of buy & hold & buy.(No selling-SMOL likes?)

    Anyone like to google or work out the maths?

    Ha! Ha!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Temperament,

      No need maths for this ... If buy SPY at Oct 2007 top & just hold on, will still make plenty of gains ... a 2-bagger.

      And without adding a single cent more, and also spend the dividends every quarter.

      SPY chart from Oct 2007 till mid-Nov 2017

      Dividends not re-invested. :)

      Delete
    2. SMOL must read what U just said above.

      B & H can make money too besides AH GU, AH KOW except AH TER goes to the market and never come back one.

      Delete
    3. temperament,

      Ya sure! With hindsight everyone is a genius!

      That's why the US librarian smart. After going through a -50% drawdown in 2009, you think she wants to go through it again?

      100% out of equities - market goes higher, she can sleep soundly knowing she has enough.

      Market goes down -50% again? Well, she can also sleep soundly knowing she got the cash to play wash, rinse, repeat ;)


      Buy-and-Hold works better for those who have another 20-30 years of working life ahead of them. Even when money stuck rotting in equities, can have day job to earn more and save more. Can wait for salted fish to come back alive!

      But at our age?

      How much % of your networth in equities?

      See?

      You not trusting Buy-and-Hold 100% too ;)






      Delete
  3. B & H at my age may be hoh.

    Don't forget i may want to leave behind a legacy.

    Or God willing, i may have another 15 to 20 yeras of good health.

    ReplyDelete

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