美股市況|美首季GDP放緩 道指曾瀉700點後跌幅收窄 長債息升穿4.7厘 美英偉達逆市彈3%(不斷更新) – 香港經濟日報 – 即時新聞頻道 –
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美股早段大跌,道指曾瀉706點,低見37754點,納指曾挫368點或2.3%,至15343點開市大跌16%,預告今年資本開支增、明年使費更大微軟、Alphabet、intel、Snap等將公布業績美股
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41 minutes ago
CW,
ReplyDeleteYour young colleague "investor" has a "soft" ear... Who is to say in another 1-2 years, he meets another person more charismatic or persuasive he wouldn't switch strategy again?
Although I'm not a big fan of passive indexing, to properly evaluate it, we need at least 1 bull/bear cycle, preferably 2 - which means 10 years' time frame?
Its clear he started near the top of the STI cycle hence the mediocre performance. But its less than 2 years of track record... If he had started in 2009, he would be singing praises to passive indexing!
It took 20 years to validate your style of DIY Panadol investing with extra rounds of 1,2,3 trading for extra kick. It just took a few months for your young colleague to "validate" it?
Was it the Trump rally or was it strategy? Causation or correlation?
What happens if we have a plain vanilla bear market of minus 20%? Throw away the strategy?
LOL!
Shhh ... Like that how to have free lunch or dinner.
DeleteOh! Sorli, sorli!
Delete"Stick out tongue"
Temperament,
ReplyDeleteWow! You good! Its a 2013 article!!!???
Either you have the memory of an elephant, or you are super organised with your bookmarks ;)
Yup, if after 30 years of investing (passive or active) you call it quits in 2007, you are smiling all the way.
Call it quits in 2008 your portfolio would have been 50% smaller :(
It's like a coin flip no?
May be some of you miss his point that monthly DCA doesn't work well like the Preacher's saying that passive investing doesn't care about market timing.
ReplyDeleteInvesting is about market timing!
CW,
DeleteNow I'm with you ;)
DCA and passive indexing is like faith. You'll only know for sure 20-30 years later when you plan to call it quits and retire.
STI near all time high - heaven! Its better to be lucky than smart ;)
STI near all time low - well... try going back for your money back guarantee... What guarantee? Its based on faith. Look ma! No brains needed remember?
Passive indexing is driving using the rear view mirror. You are betting what works for the past 30 years will work for the next 30 years. Its just simple straight line extrapolation.
He can consider using 'Chan Channel" to invest STI ETF.
ReplyDeleteInvest and accumulate when the index is below mean.
http://www.ycchan.net/LRTheory.aspx