A lifetime of earned income has come to an end on 30 Sep 2016 and he has shifted to cash flow from his Financial Assets!
For that Uncle8888 has build for himself sustainable retirement income for life model based on investing in our local stock market, SGX. Just local stocks! (Did Uncle8888 hear someone laughing?) If this doesn't go well for the next 20 years; he will go and jump down from the Mountain.
Uncle8888 has adopted a Goal-based Approach investing strategy by setting for himself a 10-year progressive Goal Targets to be achieved for each year from 2012 to 2021.
Our investing journey is not Horse Race or Rat Race where we compete against others. No! It is our investment Marathon Race where we set our own pace and compete against ourselves to win our own race.
Year 5: Q3 2016 Result for Tap No 3 (Cash Flow from Investment Portfolio)
Achieved 38.5% against 44% of 2021 Goal Targets.
Investment Portfolio XIRR
Track, Measure and Visualize!
Without doing it; how to revise investing strategies and to improve year-on-year investing performance?
Investment Portfolio's XIRR includes all investable cash plus the current stocks value at market closing price as on 30 Sep 2016.
Since one year ago:-2.3% Since 1 Nov 2008: +1.2% Since 1 Jan 2003: +7.0% Since 1 Jan 2000: +6.5%
The reality of riding market cycles of Bull and Bear
Until we master the Art Of Market Timing to optimize our gains; we will be riding up and down the market cycles without real significant gains.
Building Sustainable Retirement Income For Life Across Future Market Cycles
Real Taps. Real Money!
Tips for newbies/young ones: The bulk of our net worth comes through our saving from our hard earned incomes from our jobs and our investment portfolio will be the Accelerator to become wealthy or reach financial independence earlier when we get it right.
Stop day dreaming from Get Rich Fast scam or 30 minutes a day effort to get rich!
After soaking in both realized and paper losses for more than 16 years in pain until he became so seasoned; now he fully understand the Law of Large Losses and manage to find a less stressful or painful way to mitigate it. LOL!
Oil prices settled up nearly 6 percent on Wednesday after OPEC sources said the group has struck a deal to limit crude output at its policy meeting in November, its first agreement to cut production since the market crashed two years ago on oversupply.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reached agreement to limit its production by nearly a million barrels per day to 32.5 million bpd in talks held on the sidelines of the Sept. 26-28 International Energy Forum in Algiers, the sources told Reuters.
OPEC will agree to concrete levels of production for country at its Nov. 30 meeting in Vienna, the sources said.
After reaching its group target, it will seek support from non-member oil producers to further ease the global glut, they added.
The oil rally spilled over into the stock market, with Wall Street's index of energy shares rising 4 percent on track to its best day since January.
"This is a historic deal. This is the first time OPEC and non-OPEC will agree together in over a decade. This should put a floor on oil and should see oil move back toward the $60s," Phil Flynn, analyst at Chicago-based brokerage Price Futures Group.
"The cartel proved that it still matters even in the age of shale! This is the end of the 'production war' - OPEC claims victory."
Other analysts saw a selloff down the road, citing OPEC's general lack of adherence to quotas.
"We don't know yet who's going to produce what. I want to hear from the mouth of the Iranian oil minister that he's not going to go back to pre-sanction levels. For the Saudis, it just goes against the conventional wisdom of what they've been saying," said Jeff Quigley, director of energy markets at Houston-based Stratas Advisors.
Oil prices have more than halved from highs above $100 a barrel in mid-2014 as surging production from U.S. shale oil combined with other global oversupplies and OPEC output.
As oil traders looked to OPEC to cut output, key members such as Saudi Arabia and Iran became more protective of individual market share. The deal in Algiers follows failed talks in Qatar in April for a production freeze.
Oil prices gyrated earlier in the day after U.S. government data showed a surprise drop in domestic crude stockpiles for a fourth week in a row. The drawdown was offset by a 2 million barrel build in gasoline stockpiles, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a gain of 178,000 barrels.
CW8888: True! That is why you don't hear Uncle8888 talking about saving to the GREATER or GREATEST distance to achieve financial independence sooner.
As a single income household, he spent wisely and plan ahead for his retirement and his three kid university education costs is already an achievement in his life and not by accumulating millions and millions then it is financial independence. May be that is financial freedom!
Once Uncle8888 softly poked a well known and well liked public figure a few times for advocating his strong view that investing commoners are better off to invest in STI ETF until he tio ban by this public figure and subsequently stopped visiting his blog. Absolutely stopped. Not even once after that!
If poke too hard; he surely tio poked backside by his large followers to defend him.
STI ETF is never passive but it will not go down to zero. That is fact; but it is still actively managed by out-sourcing and market volatile.
In the next Bear market; Uncle8888 will be into STI ETF as short-term trading and long-term investing. Live demonstration here! Can wait bo?
Most commonly mentioned in investment blogosphere by many bloggers.
Uncle8888 is really big on loss aversion bias! No stop-loss! So what?
Like Chinese saying : Hit till death also never run! But; it doesn't mean he will end up as big loser!
Our own investing bias will continue to base on our personal investing experience, and outcome. We are most unlikely to alter such behavior when it still lead to desirable outcome.
Knowing common concepts is just knowledge; skills are developed when we evolve and develop ourselves around these core knowledge to achieve our own desired investment outcome and goals.
Learn whatever investing theories and concepts when we can; but we better know ourselves well and work around ourselves to fit into our bias to achieve results as by nature we can't really change our nature that much until it hurts us so much!
The past few weeks or months in the investment blogosphere; some smart Alec bloggers have began to write more on their hindsight wisdom to teach others in the cyberspace "valuable" investing lessons of Do and Don't and What to avoid!
After reading these impressive hindsight wisdom investing lessons; they made you look like idiots. Some in the cyberspace couldn't take it anymore and also began to seek second opinions and confirmation from other investment bloggers. Who is the prime candidate to check arh?
What is behind investing over decades to become successful long-term retail investors?
One "Guru" defined in his investing strategy as three years.
But, Uncle8888 defined long-term investing as the day till you reach your investing goals e.g. reaching the edge of your financial independence or sustainable retirement income for life. So long-term investing may over one or more decades over market cycles, economic cycles, commodity cycles, wars and crisis.
Every crisis that emerged in the past and the present; there are NO shortage of hindsight wisdom writers and including those branded and better known writers. They are the smart Alec telling what to do. What not to do and What to avoid.
Do they have their own money on the table to show us their game plan? Writing is cheap!
Luckily for him; there is NO investment blogosphere when he seriously took whatever money available in cash and CPF as his war chest and began his long-term investing journey to reach financial independence near the peak of STI for the next market crash.
So blame Rich Dad. Poor Dad? He is the one who inspired him to take action to get out of rat race!
Blame his stupidity in reading a book and believe?
When Uncle8888 seriously began his long-term investing; there was NO investment blogosphere so NO reading from smart Alec in the blogosphere teaching "valuable" investing lessons; otherwise he might be the one seeking second opinions and confirmation from other investment bloggers who have their skin on it.
Some hindsight wisdom reading really made us depressive and lose confidence and made us look like idiots.
Watch out for hindsight wisdom writing; and especially those smart Alec who don't place their own money on the table and write about it!
So what is behind investing over decades to become successful long-term retail investors? Uncle8888's thought after more than 16 years of serious investing.
Days and nights with both eyes on financial news and investment blogosphere reading useful and useless stuff. It is no different like reading newspapers. The Past. The Present and The Future! When investing over decades in the stock market; our Present is the outcome of our Past. The Present is NOT our Future. We have to keep learning, revising and refining our investing strategies.
Up till now, Uncle8888 still doesn't believe in passive investing unless you are super savers and then can afford to be more passive.
The Future is the outcome of the Present. Have we put in enough time and effort in our Present so that Future is the outcome of the Present. How Future Me Thank You?
O & G is facing the worst crisis ever as told by many insiders in O & G industry.
This is the Present. But for long-term investors; our Present is the outcome of our Past. Worst ever? Not necessary true!
We better understand the long-term investing over one or more decades. It is about The Good. The Bad and The Ugly! The Past. The Present and The Future!
Over decades; investing is like Pokémon Go. Catch Them All - The Good. The Bad and the Ugly.
Learn to look your investment performance at Investment Portfolio level and not at single stocks. Power up your Level!
Is owning 30 stocks in a portfolio
Especially if 40-50% of that portfolio
is geared towards financials?
And you have no clue what is Narrow
Country Focus risk?
We have a little issue here. Think Grasshopper not PowerMaths?
As retail investors, many of us may not have that kind of war chest to chase ALL 30 blue chips in our local stock exchange, SGX; but we may have enough resources to chase after X or XX by position sizing. It will achieve reasonable diversification across industries and sectors.
Does Grasshopper mean Singapore's listed companies only do business in Singapore selling char kway teow, laksa, chicken rice arh?
Real Person . Real Story and should be reading this blog post too.
Buddha also has fire! Fisherman runs out of patience!
Once we have lost our hard earned money in the stock market; there is nothing much we can do about it. When we cut our losses too late; whatever we can recover will be quite little. With that little recovered capital; we can't recover from such large losses. No. We can't!
So we put in more capital and then what happen?
Even larger losses may be expected if we never put in significant time and effort to sharpen our investing knowledge and skills?
You can only help yourself
You can choose to pay $X,XXX to polish your investing "skills" by attending "Gurus" guided courses to prove that "Gurus" are right!
We have to know ourselves. If we cannot stand heat personally so we better stay out of the kitchen even we want to cook nice meals for the family.
Uncle8888 also suffered large losses but never give up. He keeps learning. He also came to the stock market at the wrong market timing in Jan 2000. See closely! See for yourself. But; he never lose confidence but keep learning! That is the way he has chosen for himself. Nobody force him to invest!
Now, who are telling you that you need to invest?
Investment bloggers, financial advisers and "Gurus" conducting investment courses?
They are just Barbers!
Barbers will be telling guys to keep their hair neat and shorter to look smarter!
Barber : Guys; you need a hair cut to look smarter!
It is true that inflation is killing you softly year on year till we die; but the emotional heartache, pain in the mind, and depression of seeing our hard earned money lost in the stock market may shorten our life faster without us knowing it.
We have to know ourselves. If we cannot stand heat personally we better stay out of the kitchen even we like to cook nice meals ourselves for the family.
You still want to listen to your barber that it is great time to get a hair cut but you look wonderful with longer hair and what if you have little hair on your head and still need hair cut every month?
Personally; Uncle8888 has agreed with those super savers that they don't want to invest and don't put themselves into emotional roller-coastal over market cycles. A peaceful mind without worrying about market is also priceless as compared to compounding gains for more wealth. Potentially more money not means more peaceful mind.
He also fully understand why those who have chopped their fingers continue to be super savers to fight inflation. Year on year inflation is killing us softly but not large investment losses. When we cannot take the great pain of losses. Stay away from the stock market!
Strange. These words coming out from the investment blogger -the barber saying that you looking really nice. You don't need a haircut!
Taipei, Sept. 21 (CNA) Taiwan investigators brought back the main suspect in the Maxim Trader Group Ponzi scheme from Malaysia on Wednesday to face charges of defrauding investors of some NT$200 million (US$6.38 million)
Hsu Ssu-wei (許思為) was listed as fugitive in June 2015, after it was discovered that he had fled the country during an investigation into illegal fundraising activities involving the Maxim Trade Group.
Last May, the Bureau of Investigation raided 16 locations used by the bogus firm, which had been posing as an affiliate of a Nasdaq-listed international holding company, and seized about NT$60 million in cash, luxury cars and bank accounts.
The Maxim Trade Group was accused of fraudulently taking in more than NT$13.9 billion from investors in Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea, China and Hong Kong from 2013-2015 and transferring the funds to dummy bank accounts overseas.
According to Taiwan investigators, Hsu alone managed to swindle more than NT$200 million through the fraudulent company.
In July, investigators learned that Hsu was still at large in Southeast Asia. With the cooperation of law enforcement authorities in the region, Taiwan investors arrested Hsu in Malaysia Tuesday and escorted him back to Taiwan on Wednesday, the bureau said.
He will face charges associated with violations of the Bank Act, the bureau said
Just after reading one book: Rich Dad. Poor Dad and a Mind Flip.
After 16 years, Uncle8888 has acquired the full courage and confidence to divert his journey as salaried employee earning nice and comfortable income and unlike many of his seniors taking the common path to the forced end-point at the will of their employer.
Looking back after 16 years, it is Amazing!
Many have read this book; but how many have their mind flip and they became so determined to get out of rat race and will learn whatever to take them there.
Starting in the month of Oct 2016 and appearing from mid noon till late evening/early night for 2 to 4 times during weekdays. First Pokestop and travel anti-clockwise. Maximum duration per Pokestop is 30 mins.
Set up your Pokestop and Lure to catch this Pokémon if you wish to throw a Raspberry (kopi-o kosong) to catch this Pokémon of low CP 16.
Bring a few pieces of paper and a pen to understand his Wealth Formula!
Wealth = Asset Value + Cash Flow
How about his view on this FB's comment he has read this morning?
"Then it is wiser to use cash to pay for mortgage payment and leave CPF-OA money compounding @2.5%."
Once you understand CW8888's Wealth Formula; it may help you to make a wiser decision.
Choose Active and progressively ending as Passive to enjoy the fruits of your Money Tree; BUT in life seldom there is Free Lunch. You like free lunch or breakfast try to visit some known temples or churches that provide them.
See what you see and see it closely.
Winners, Losers, Non-performing. Catch them all.
It is like Pokémon Go. Catch them all; otherwise how to get those rare ones?
When you are single, five days never change your underwear. Nobody #$%&& care!
When you are married; you try to tell your spouse. "Honey; I five days never change my underwear; I am going to break the last record and make it 6 days! LOL!
Same as pursing financial independence when you still have dependents who have many more years of uncertainty to go. The Equation for Financial Independence is not simple. Uncle8888 has seriously thought over and over again in 2013 whenever he has some quiet moments himself and thinking it loud.
Should he do it now as there may be no tomorrow?
But the deeper thought of many more years of his dependents has firmly hold him back. See the difference? It is not as simple as what we have read in some investment blogs - Passive income exceeding household expenses is financial independence.
I May Not Have Tomorrow But May Not Be So For My Dependents
This is what long-term investing and short-term trading all about.
Holding long-term for its yield and trading short-term for its cash flow is not as that easy over market and oil cycles - the boom and doom.
We must remember our investing experience and future approach to investing is always personal and that is the reason why we have to understand ourselves, our investing goals and the most important our account size really matters.
Uncle8888 is very discipline in risk control and he knows enough is enough and he will never ever lose any money in Kep Corp!
The hunt was over long ago. met a lot of friendly people around. got some stories of people i have met. I would like to share with everyone.
it was the 1st few days of pokemon. I was riding on my bike around my estate. So there was this pokestop. Where i met this old man in wheelchair with his maid. He was putting lure at the stop for the nearby kids to play. He saw me and said that he was on wheels too. We were chatting when i saw some of the kids playing..... They were so happy when they caught a slowpoke. I was like.... wat?? i already caught maybe 30 slowpoke t that day. Then i realize that, 4 of them were sharing 1 phone to play. So it was like.... the slowpoke of the Day!.. they take turns to wait and catch. But they were very happy. there are also a few more kids around, .. But as there was only 1 stop, their pokeballs ran out quite fast. So i took turns to take their phones , coz i cycle around to pick up those pokestops. At 1 of the stops. There was this ah beng. Typical Ah Beng. sitting there smoking with techo music from his e-scootor. I went around like 20 times.... so i guess he thought i was chashing a rare pokemon. So he followed me to that stop and saw that there was no rare But he just sat there and play anyway with the kids. it was getting late so the old man, told the kids time to go home. I also need to go work. Anyway, we told the kids to come down tomorrow . So the next day, i fit in another 2 handphone holders on my bike and 5 battery packs down to the pokestop. So i can take a few more phones to run the pokestops. When i reach there, the old man and the maid were there... they even bring drink and some cakes and i also saw the ah beng..... and guess what he got 3 friends with him .... all in e-scooters. I figure out that he realize what i was doing. So he decided to help, he got 3 of his friends and not only they can help to get to the other pokestops. They ride the Kids to the stops. You can see the delight on the kids' faces. because they never had to chance to even ride on one. The ah bengs, even tell each other not to ride too fast..... and even tell each other not to scold vulgar hokkien coz got kids around. We didnt talk by just a nod of the head and smile.
2nd story ----------- It was during 1 of walks at MBS. When there was a rush. KABUTOPS. was spotted... there was a crazy rush to the art science centre. I also was in the mist of the people. When they was a shout by someone. There was a young girl. face 1st on the ground and crying, but everyone ignore her and some asshole even kick her. When this malay kaki shouted at the guy.The guy just stare and walk off. The kaki carry the girl up and to the sitting area, he dusted her knees and they were bleeding.... guess that the parents wanted kabutops more than their daughter. Then the kaki's wife and daughter came. There are too many people and simply the girl can't see her parents. So the Ah bang, stood up on the sitting area and carried the girl on his shoulder to let her get a better view... Finally after a while, the mother spotted her daugher and came running in. The little girl was crying when the mother hug her..... the father came and thank the malay buddy. End up, they wasn't catching kabutops. But were having dinner. The little girl was playing around.So when the crowd rush, she somehow got caught in the mist and got push off away. After that, i walk off to the other stops.... when i came back to art science centre later... they were still there... Guys talking about soccer and man u . wives talking little girls running around... Singapore multi racial harmony at it's best.
3rd ----- I was riding to MBS on my bicycle. Took a longer route around gardens by the bay, to catch some Jynx. When i saw a man pushing a wheel chair boy. I don't know how to explain. But the boy is like wheel chair bounded and can only move a few fingers . very poor thing. When i look at him, he was like very shy or fearful. So i smile at him and his dad, just casual ask what he was catching. The father said, catch snake, which i guess it was ekans. But when i look at the i pad... it looks weird, coz it dont seems the boy is playing. because the dad was holding onto the i pad, the kid can only use 1 finger to touch the screen and you can see his hands are not steady. So i turn and saw this younger boy holding onto a phone . Then i realize, The i Pad, is just a mirror of the phone , the young boy is catching the pokemon, but mirror it to the i pad, to make it as if the wheel chair boy is catching it.. woah, it immediately hit me that this should be the younger brother. To make the sick older brother happy, he somehow made it as if he was catching it.. who would even do that... then just than some people were shouting pikachu... pikachu in front and running . The wheel chair boy was like.... piiiii....ka ka ka ka ......ccccuuu.. i look at the young boy face, and ask him to pass me his phone... i ride down like crazy....... capture the pikachu, and ride back asap... hope that there is no time out.. the boy quick took the phone.... and CAPTURE the pikachu... the older brother was so happy , he almost jump out of his wheel chair..
The maid and father had to hold him down.. i can see a lady sitting at 1 corner , leaning againest the wall , sleeping.. i guess it should be the tired mother looking after him... i was there for more than an hour, riding around, capture wat in sight and come back... Before they had to go off, they had to change his tubes or something... the mom seems ok after that short nap. i somehow wanted to talk to the small boy, so i told him that he has to help to take care of the older brother.... he nod his head... and says that he only has 1 older brother. it kind of hit me.... but glad that he knows what to do.... a lot of things can be bought , but brotherhood and kinships can only be taught.
Without so-called easy money from active contra trading during the Bull and crash got sound during the Bear. With a slower and steady investing mind; Uncle8888 still strongly believe 5% p.a. cash flow return on portfolio is highly possible over future market cycles.
Conventional wisdom says you should be investing as much of your excess money as you possibly can. That may be the best path to greater wealth. But it may not be the best path to happiness.
In a previous article we looked at a broad range of research about money and happiness. Some of the main conclusions: Experiences tend to provide more lasting happiness than material goods; giving money away makes people happier than spending it on themselves; and wealthier people do tend to be happier, but only up to a certain point.
The Wall Street Journal spoke recently with Joe Gladstone, research associate at the University of Cambridge in the U.K. and co-author of both studies. Here are edited excerpts from that interview.
MR. GLADSTONE: I’ve been working with banks to answer some interesting questions about how and why people make certain financial decisions. A U.K. bank allowed us to survey thousands of its customers about their happiness and then match those responses to transaction data from their accounts.
We wanted to look at the fundamental question: To what extent can money lead to happiness? And does money tied up in a non liquid form provide the same happiness as money that is available to spend?
WSJ:And what did you find?
MR. GLADSTONE:We find a very interesting effect: that the amount of money you have in your bank account right now is a better predictor of happiness than your aggregate wealth. Having more money in their bank account makes people feel more financially secure, which leads to an increase in happiness.
CW8888: Walau! So true. That is the answer! In our local investment blogosphere, Uncle8888 may rank near the bottom of table in term of % of his net worth invested .
That makes sense for the poorest 50% in the study, but it’s surprising that it’s still the case for the richest 50%. Even for a very wealthy person who has lots of savings and investments, having more money in their checking account seems to increase their happiness.
It is just a correlational study, so we don’t study the reasons for this. But we can hypothesize that when money is tied up in a pension or investments, it feels more abstract and inaccessible.
Going to the ATM and seeing a large balance available feels more important to people.
WSJ: Why is this research important?
MR. GLADSTONE: It goes against the traditional advice a financial adviser might give someone. Advisers might say all money that isn’t invested in something like equities is wasted—it’s sitting in your account losing value—so the right choice from a purely rational economic point of view is to invest it.
But that is not taking into account human psychology. It isn’t just about maximizing your monetary benefit, but about maximizing your well-being. (CW8888. True!)
WSJ: Should people keep all their money in their checking account?
MR. GLADSTONE: No, there are diminishing returns. Going from £1 to £1,000 (about $1.30 to $1,300) leads to more happiness than going from £1,000 to £10,000, and so on. But people might want to think about building up more current assets.
So many people are living as financial zombies, going from paycheck to paycheck. Yet often they do have some assets. Maybe they own a house or have access to some other asset. If they shifted their approach and built up more of a buffer to make themselves feel more secure, it might be a powerful way to make them feel happier with their lives.
WSJ: Your other research looks at buying decisions and happiness. What do you find in that study?
MR. GLADSTONE: Lots of research out there assumes that a single rule will tell all of us what will make us happy. But people are different, so we wanted to take the research to the next level and look at how different kinds of people can maximize their happiness.
So again we partnered with a major bank in the U.K. We looked at people’s debit-card transactions and matched them against the results of personality and happiness surveys. We found that when people spent money on things that matched their personality, it was strongly predictive of happiness.
WSJ: Isn’t this an obvious link? Doesn’t everyone spend on things that fit their personality?
MR. GLADSTONE: No. If you ask people what would make them happier, they often give a normative response; in other words, what should make them happy. But what we show is that what fits with socially desirable behavior may not be what makes you happy.
Often, our behavior is driven by what other people are doing.
People are not always good at listening to who they are as individuals and behaving in ways that respond to those individual traits.
The next stage of this research will be to look at why some people are better at this than others.
WSJ: How do you measure the link between personality and spending?
MR. GLADSTONE: We use something called the “big five,” which is the five characteristics that make most people different from each other. The simple acronym for this is OCEAN: openness, conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness and neuroticism.
We assessed people’s personalities based on that model. But then we had to assign personality scores to the products and things they spent their money on. We did that with a large-scale online survey in which we asked people to rate how well each type of spending matched the different personality types.
But this analysis, like the previous study, only showed a correlation. We also wanted to show a causal link, so we did a separate experiment in which we took people who were highly introverted or highly extroverted and gave them money to spend either in a bar or in a bookshop. Then we asked them for their levels of happiness at multiple points in the process.
We show that when the extroverted people spent money in the bookshop, it had no effect on their happiness, whereas the introverts became happier. And in the bar, the introverts actually became less happy. It is a small-scale study, but it’s quite compelling evidence for a causal link between how well our spending behavior matches our personality and how happy we are.
WSJ: How can people put these results into practice?
MR. GLADSTONE: There are lots of Big Five personality tests freely available online, so you could get to know yourself better and use it to think about your spending. We need to do more research in this area, but our paper provides a starting-point for thinking about this.
Of course, everyone has some constraints on their spending. People have to pay the rent, and we’re not saying that they shouldn’t do things like that because it doesn’t fit their personality. But with the chunk of your money that is discretionary, maybe that can be optimized in a way that reflects who you are as a person and makes you happier as a result.
Mr. Blackman is a writer living on Crete. He can be reached at email@example.com.
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