As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Sunday, 30 November 2014

SCI: Is the party long over???








































How much is enough???


Monthly closing for Nov 14


Uncle8888 tracks and mind his money to know how much is enough!



Grasshoppers may laugh!


But, most of us are Ants or Bees who are or will be supporting community based living. So we are better off knowing how much food is enough to store for the Winter.







Multi-baggers (3)


Just for Thinking - Investing ...


Read? Multi-baggers (2)


You answer?


Which is more scary and alarming?


(A) Failure rate of Blue Chips

(B) Failure rate of Penny Stocks



You answer is?






For long only retail investors who do proper money management and risk control, when we lose we will lose only 100%; but we are right and won. We will win N x 100% with dividends included. Right?






Think again. You have second chance to answer again.



Your answer confirmed to be?



 


 



In Investing: You can't trust anyone in keeping secret.


Just For Laugh ....

Are you Wuxi buff?










In those Wuxi days, you can't buy secrets from the Kung Fu masters. One will have to marry, cheat, trick, steal, rob or seduce to get these secrets.

Secrets were well kept by their children or disciples even their life were threatened by those wanted to know the secrets. The secrets were so priceless and couldn't be sold.




In investing and trading, you cannot trust Kung Fu masters to keep their secret anymore. The secrets are so cheapskate that you no need to marry, cheat, trick, steal, rob or seduce to get them. 

Just pay for them at $X,XXX. So cheap. Right?


Sometime, you may even get them free through social media. Shiok!



 

 

















Why are project developers choosing FLNG?

According to recent research from KPMG, growing demand, high prices, environmental and community challenges and steep costs for the infrastructure of land-based projects, have led several leading LNG players, including Woodside, Shell, Petronas, ExxonMobil and Inpex, to take another look at floating LNG

.




KPMG examines ten reasons to choose FLNG. The first five are detailed below:

1. Unlock smaller fields

 

Shell’s 3.6 tpa Prelude project is relatively small by Australian LNG standards; Petronas’ 1.5 million tpa FLNG-1 for the Kanowit field in Sarawak, Malaysia, and Pacific Rubiales’ 0.5 million tpa plant for La Creciente in Colombia are smaller still. These fields would unlikely be economic if developed through conventional land-based facilities. Large oilfields producing significant quantities of associated gas, as in Brazil’s pre-salt of the Santos Basin, are also candidates.

2. Access remote fields

 

Australian fields such as Browse are as much as 425 km offshore, which would necessitate long and costly pipelines to onshore locations. In September 2013, the Browse joint venturers, Woodside, Shell, BP, PetroChina and Mitsubishi/Mitsui, decided on floating LNG, which may include three Prelude type vessels. In September, BHP Billiton agreed with ExxonMobil that FLNG was the best approach for their Scarborough field, in 1000 m of water and 200 km off Western Australia. Arctic environments are a step further, given ice and rougher waters, but considered technically feasible.

3. Avoid onshore ‘no-go zones’

 

Large gas fields have been found in the Eastern Mediterranean, however the surrounding coastlines are heavily built-up with tourism and real estate. Onshore plant locations may face lengthy legal and permitting delays and community objections.

4. Reduce environmental footprint

 

Floating LNG plants do not require long seabed pipelines, dredging for jetties or onshore roads and construction. They save on fuel gas for compression to send gas to shore. After decommissioning, the vessel offers the potential to be relatively easily removed and re-deployed. Bruce Steenson, General Manager of Integrated Gas Programs and Innovation, Shell International Exploration and Production B.V., notes: “In Prelude’s case, the option value is there in that the hull is designed for 50 years with the base case of stationing for 20 to 25 years. So with refurbishment, there is some possible additional value. One potential challenge to be taken into account regarding redeployability is the variance in gas composition by fields.”

5. Deliver projects cheaper and faster

 

FLNG may offer reduced capital costs, particularly once shipyards have gained experience with construction and standardised solutions are employed. There could be substantial improvements in the process of integrating the hull and processing units. Modular components can be constructed at several locations. Onshore construction, marine works and the related high labour costs, in remote or hostile environments, can be minimised. For example, the dredging cost alone for the Wheatstone project in Western Australia – a 17 km approach channel and 26 million m3 of dredged material – is estimated at AU$ 1.5 billion. Savings on such infrastructure, and a simpler supply chain, can mean FLNG projects make it to market faster.


Source: KPMG.

Saturday, 29 November 2014

Median income over past six years in Singapore



How much is enough for retirees or early retirees?

We may need to take a look at the median income in Singapore to find out the magic number.

































With a fully paid home and covered by comprehensive medical insurances and without the financial burden of children eating up money; how much is enough?

Median income excluding Employer CPF = $3,276

Is $5K per month in current dollar value enough for married couple without any dependents?


Should be comfortable. Right?

Need to retiree in JB for more?



 




Multi-baggers (2)


Just For Thinking ....


Read? Multi-baggers

Peter Lych:

You don't need a lot in your lifetime. You only need a few good stocks in your lifetime. I mean how many times do you need a stock to go up ten-fold to make a lot of money? Not a lot.



I think the secret is if you have a lot of stocks, 

some will do mediocre
some will do okay, and 
if one of two of 'em go up big time

you produce a fabulous result.  

And I think that's the promise to some people. 

Some stocks go up 20-30 percent and they get rid of it and they hold onto the dogs. And it's sort of like watering the weeds and cutting out the flowers. You want to let the winners run

When the fun ones get better, add to 'em, and that one winner, you basically see a few stocks in your lifetime, that's all you need

I mean stocks are out there. When I ran Magellan, I wrote a book. I think I listed over a hundred stocks that went up over ten-fold when I ran Magellan and I owned thousands of stocks. I owned none of these stocks.

I missed every one of these stocks that went up over ten-fold. I didn't own a share of them. And I still managed to do well with Magellan. So there's lots of stocks out there and all you need is a few of 'em. So that's been my philosophy. You have to let the big ones make up for your mistakes.

In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten. This is not like pure science where you go, "Aha" and you've got the answer. By the time you've got "Aha," Chrysler's already quadrupled or Boeing's quadrupled. You have to take a little bit of risk.



CW8888:

Can this be true for long only retail investors in Singapore?


What happen to Uncle8888 since Jan 2000 when he became deadly serious with investing and trading in Singapore stock market?


Peter Lych's Secret:

I think the secret is if you have a lot of stocks, 

some will do mediocre
some will do okay, and 
if one of two of 'em go up big time

you produce a fabulous result. 



Uncle8888's Secret:

Read? Uncle8888, how do you find multi-bagger stock? (Re-visit)


Can 54 different stocks in SGX mean a lot of stocks?

Two ZERO baggers! Deadly painful!!!

18 Bleeding Hearts!!!  Even with doses of Panadols couldn't stop the sharp pain from these bleeding hearts.

Just a few multi-baggers will help to forget all the past pain and be wise enough to avoid picking up future ZERO baggers is enough for him.



A few multi-baggers may do the magic.












The Losers and winners




What we have in the market is never ours yet!!!

Did you notice what was taken back by Mr. Market? 







US crude settles down 10.2%, at lowest since September 2009

US crude prices plunged on OPEC's decision to not cut output, but light trading on Friday after the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday meant there could be more losses when markets return to full strength next week, traders said.


U.S. crude's front-month contract closed $7.54, or 10.2 percent, lower at $66.15 per barrel—its lowest settlement since September 2009.

The front month for benchmark North Sea Brent crude fell about $2 to $70.45, its lowest since July 2010.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light U.S. crude hit fresh lows after Saudi Arabia blocked calls on Thursday from poorer members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to reduce production. U.S. markets were officially closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving, with only electronic trading.
 
Traders said if WTI takes out the May 2010 low of $64.24, it could technically be headed for a test below $60, toward the low of $58.32 set on July 2009.

With November trading in its final session, Brent was headed for a 15 percent loss on the month, or the steepest monthly decline since 2008. It has lost over 30 percent since June, falling from above $115, as increasing North American shale oil output helped create a glut amid sluggish global growth.
 
Russia's most powerful oil official Igor Sechin said oil prices could hit $60 or below by the end of the first half of next year. Options market data show speculators betting on $65 Brent by early 2016.
 
``The market is looking for a new paradigm, a new range to settle into. Where that is, is anybody's guess,'' said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

 
 

Friday, 28 November 2014

Keppel Corp: Sold Keppel FMO Unit to Cofely South East Asia for S$44.7 Million


By Gaurav Raghuvanshi
 
SINGAPORE--Keppel Corp. Ltd. (BN4.SG) said Friday it has sold its entire stake in its unit, Keppel FMO, to a unit of Cofely GDF SUEZ for 44.7 million Singapore dollars (US$34 million) in cash.

The company was sold by Keppel's unit Keppel Infrastructure Holdings Pte. Ltd. to Cofely South East Asia Pte. Ltd., a unit of Cofely GDF SUEZ, a European facilities management and design firm.

The payment includes a deferred consideration of up to S$9.72 million to be paid if certain targets are achieved by Keppel FMO, the parent firm said in a statement to Singapore Exchange where it is listed. Keppel FMO is incorporated in Singapore and provides facilities management services.

Your Money or Someone else's???


Read? Rich Dad. Poor Dad???

The most pitiful thing to happen in life is to die as Rich Godfather/ Rich Godmother to someone else who then happily spend his/her money and laughing.

Oh oh  .. that stupid old man/old lady who doesn't know to spend their money!



Remember China Tour guide!

Godson. right?


 

Singapore’s employment rate, median income up in 2014


SINGAPORE: With more women and elderly joining the workforce, Singapore’s resident labour force participation rate rose for the third consecutive year to a record 67 per cent, the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) said on Friday (Nov 28).

According to data from the ministry’s Comprehensive Labour Force Survey, the participation rate for females was at 58.6 per cent in 2014, up from 51.3 per cent in 2004.

Among older residents, the participation rate for those aged 55 to 64 rose to 68.4 per cent in 2014, from 49.5 per cent in 2004. 

For residents aged 65 to 69, the participation rate surged to 41.2 per cent this year, from 18.9 per cent in 2004.

As labour force participation rose, the employment rate of residents aged 25 to 64 reached a high of 79.7 per cent in 2014, up from 79 per cent in 2013 and 72.3 per cent in 2004


REAL INCOME GROWTH SLOWS

Salaries were up as well, with the nominal median monthly income including employer CPF contributions rising by 1.8 per cent from a year ago to S$3,770 in June 2014. However, the rate of growth slowed from June 2013's 6.5 per cent.

After adjusting for inflation, the real median income slowed to 0.4 per cent this year, compared with 4 per cent in 2013. According to MOM, income growth was higher than average in 2013, partly pulled up by the initial effect of the Wage Credit Scheme launched in 2013 which could have encouraged employers to give bigger wage increments.


Between 2009 and 2014, the median income including employer CPF contributions of full-time employed residents rose by 29 per cent, or 5.2 per cent per annum. After adjusting for inflation, real income growth for the period was 9.7 per cent, or 1.9 per cent per annum.


Amid ongoing initiatives to raise the incomes of low-wage workers, income at the 20th percentile rose to S$1,972 in 2014, up 31 per cent from S$1,500 in 2009, or 5.2 per cent per annum. After accounting for inflation, real income growth was 12 per cent, or 2.3 per cent per annum.


Saudis block OPEC output cut, sending oil price plunging

By Alex Lawler, David Sheppard and Rania El Gamal


VIENNA (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia blocked calls on Thursday from poorer members of the OPEC oil exporter group for production cuts to arrest a slide in global prices, sending benchmark crude plunging to a fresh four-year low.

Brent oil fell more than $6 to $71.25 a barrel after OPEC ministers meeting in Vienna left the group's output ceiling unchanged despite huge global oversupply, marking a major shift away from its long-standing policy of defending prices.

This outcome set the stage for a battle for market share between OPEC and non-OPEC countries, as a boom in U.S. shale oil production and weaker economic growth in China and Europe have already sent crude prices down by about a third since June.

"It was a great decision," Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said as he emerged smiling after around five hours of talks.

OPEC said in a statement that members had agreed to roll over the ceiling of 30 million barrels per day, at least 1 million above OPEC's own estimates of demand for its oil next year.

"It is a new world for OPEC because they simply cannot manage the market anymore. It is now the market’s turn to dictate prices and they will certainly go lower," said Dr. Gary Ross, chief executive of PIRA Energy Group.

The wealthy Gulf states have made clear they are ready to ride out the weak prices that have hurt the likes of Venezuela and Iran - OPEC members which face big budget pressures, but cannot afford to make cuts themselves. Venezuela and Algeria had calling for output cuts of as much as 2 million bpd.

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Rafael Ramirez said he accepted the decision as a collective one and hoped that lower prices would help drive some of the higher-cost U.S. shale oil production out of the market.

"In the market, some producers are too expensive," he said.

The OPEC statement made no mention of any need for members to stop overproducing, nor of any extraordinary meeting to reconsider the ceiling before a regular session next June.

BATTLE OVER MARKET SHARE

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries accounts for a third of global oil output.

Gulf producers could withstand for some time a battle over market share that would drive down prices further, thanks to their large foreign-currency reserves.

Members without such a cushion would find it much more difficult, as would a number of producers outside the group. Russia's rouble, which has been sliding for much of this year, extended losses on Thursday to trade more than 2 percent lower than the previous close against the U.S. dollar.

Russia is already suffering from Western sanctions over its actions in Ukraine and needs oil prices of $100 per barrel to balance its budget.

A price war might make some future U.S. shale oil projects uncompetitive due to high production costs, easing competitive pressures on OPEC in the longer term.

"Why would Saudi cut production in the current environment? Why would they want to support Iran, Russia or U.S. shale producers? So they must have decided: let the market establish the price. Once the market goes to a new equilibrium, prices will go higher," PIRA Energy's Ross said.

Kuwaiti Oil Minister Ali Saleh al-Omair said OPEC would have to accept any market price of oil, whether it were $60, $80 or $100 a barrel. Iraq's oil minister, Adel Abdel Mehdi, said he saw a floor at $65-70 per barrel.

"We interpret this as Saudi Arabia selling the idea that oil prices in the short term need to go lower, with a floor set at $60 per barrel, in order to have more stability in years ahead at $80 plus," said Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix consultancy.

"In other words, it should be in the interest of OPEC to live with lower prices for a little while in order to slow down development projects in the United States."


VIENNA (AP) -- Reflecting its lessening oil clout, OPEC decided Thursday to keep its output target on hold and sit out falling crude prices that will likely spiral even lower as a result.

Oil prices fell sharply on the news. Even though the decision was largely expected, it showed the once-powerful cartel is losing the power to push up markets to its own advantage. 

OPEC has traditionally relied on output cuts to regulate supply and prices. But it appeared to realize Thursday that with cheap crude in oversupply, a reduction would only cut into OPEC's share of the market without a lasting boost in prices and with others outside the cartel making up the difference. 

Instead, the move to maintain a production target of 30 million barrels a day appeared to reflect acceptance of the Saudi view within OPEC that short-term pain had to be accepted for later gain.

The Saudis and their Gulf allies hope to put economic pressure on rival producers in the U.S., which need higher prices to break even. In the long term, that could help reaffirm OPEC's dominance of the oil market.

It would also be good news for consumers and oil-importing nations.

The global price plunged $5 to a four-year low of $72.76 a barrel. As recently as June it was around $115.

Oil ministers had come to Thursday's meeting facing two unpalatable choices: Cut their production from 30 million barrels a day in an effort to boost prices and see OPEC's market share fall, or do nothing in hopes of riding out the crisis.

Paring output may not have been very effective because supply from non-OPEC countries, like the U.S., remains high. Also, discipline within the 12-member organization is lax and overproduction by some members would have cut into the effectiveness of any production cut.

In any case, OPEC could have not afforded to scale back production by more than 1 million barrels a day — too little to make a sizable dent in supply. 

OPEC Secretary General Abdullah Al-Badry suggested all members were on board with the decision to stick to the present output level, telling reporters "the ministers are happy."

"I see no nagging from consumers, no nagging from producers," he told reporters.

In fact, the decision once again appeared to reflect Saudi Arabia's clout over less powerful OPEC rivals.

By opposing an output cut, Saudi Arabia appears to be hoping to drive prices below the level at which shale oil production is economical. Experts say shale oil production turns too costly at the $60 a barrel level. 

"When it comes to the raw decision-making, that is left to the unofficial leader, Saudi Arabia," said Alfa Energy chairman John Hall.

Accounting for about a third of OPEC output, the Saudis can weather lower prices because their coffers are well-padded and its production costs are relatively low.

But poorer OPEC members like Venezuela and Nigeria need levels close to $100 or above to fund national budgets. Saudi rival Iran is suffering, too, with the price drop adding to huge revenue losses due to sanctions on its crude sales imposed over its nuclear program.

If sanctions were to be lifted as part of a nuclear agreement next year, Iran still would need prices close to $140 a barrel to finance the government budget. Crude export revenues finance more than 50 percent of the government's outlays.

In the case of Venezuela, the International Monetary Fund says it needs to sell oil at around $120 a barrel to avoid the threat of national bankruptcy. Bank of America estimates that for every dollar that oil prices drop, the state loses $770 million in net revenue over a year. That puts revenue $12 billion a year below peak levels even if current prices don't fall further.

Nigeria also needs a stronger market to flourish. Analysts say the government has organized its 2015 budget around an oil price of $78 a barrel based on production of 2.4 million barrels a day — but the country is pumping only about 2 million barrels a day. 

Angola, Ecuador and other OPEC members with limited production may also suffer — but not so Saudi Arabia's wealthy allies Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. 

Iranian oil minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh said the "OPEC decision was not entirely what we wanted," and analysts suggested that others share that view.

"I think you're going to see additional tension between the OPEC ranks," said Jamie Webster, senior director of crude oil markets at IHS consultants.


Thursday, 27 November 2014

Golar 2nd FLNG with Keppel





























GoFLNG

Golar's strategic intent is to become a fully integrated LNG mid-stream services provider covering floating LNG liquefaction, shipping and regasification services.

The company’s investment proposition is to extend further upstream in the LNG value chain by adding Golar floating LNG liquefaction (GoFLNG) capability. GoFLNG will bring substantially lower unit cost liquefaction, shorter lead-times and a significantly lower execution risk profile when compared to conventional land based liquefaction plants.

The investment proposition has been positively received by a number of stakeholders.


Rich Dad. Poor Dad???


About Uncle8888's late father and his late father-in-law


How much money they leave behind for others to spend?


Poor Dad



Uncle8888's late father leave behind a few thousand dollars that he has been saving up (actually he refused to spend) probably to leave behind something. For Chinese, leaving behind nothing is bad luck to future generations.



Rich Dad


Uncle8888's late father-in-law, a typical China man leave behind for his three sons only and four daughters get nothing. 


  • 4 room HDB flat.
  • 4 Joint Bank accounts for his three sons and his wife. One account each.
  • 4 Gold bars. One each for his three sons and his wife.
  • Portfolio of stocks that were sold at "profit" and distributed among his three sons.


So Uncle8888 will have to decide to become Rich Dad or Poor Dad?


One thing he will not follow his late father-in-law. 

In his Will, all three children have equal share upon his youngest son reaching the age of 27. At age of 27, his youngest son should have reasonable work life experience to manage his own affair and his own future.





Luck is a Full Stop??? (3)


Read? Luck is a Full Stop??? (2)


BOUGHT


Yes. You were lucky to buy during market crash.

Yes. You were lucky to catch a falling knife at rock bottom.

Yes. You were lucky ....... many time more!



 

SOLD


You felt lucky and then you sell?


No. Right?


The trigger to sell is more likely to come from your own emotion struggle of fear, greed or doubt based on your Method.

Selling is rarely on luck.  So better not to place too much hope on being lucky. 




The Oil Equation : Three Key Variables





























DataSpeedInflation???


Just For Laugh ...


BTW, Uncle8888 is still on the same old ASDL and BBOM plan since day one. 

No upgrading!


Pay and Pay?

Why Pay?

So Don't Pay?


Wednesday, 26 November 2014

Save to invest, don't save to save


Read? How To Become A Millionaire By Age 30


Save to invest, don't save to save

 Uncle8888








 3. Save to invest, don't save to save. The only reason to save money is to invest it.  Put your saved money into secured, sacred (untouchable) accounts. Never use these accounts for anything, not even an emergency. This will force you to continue to follow step one (increase income). To this day, at least twice a year, I am broke because I always invest my surpluses into ventures I cannot access.



Exactly, why we need 4 bank accounts!

One bank account dedicated to our investment needs. 

You don't spend any money from this account until the day you have retired from your day job and NEED to depend on passive income.


Read? Two Bank Accounts? No, You may need Four! - (4)

Portfolio Asset Allocation - Barbell Approach???



Read? Can your active investing skills be transferred to family members?



Simple is not necessary ineffective. Right?







US crude futures settle more than 2% lower, at 4-year nadir


Oil prices tumbled on Tuesday ahead of a meeting of oil cartel OPEC where a cut in production will likely be discussed.


U.S. crude lost $1.69 to settle at $74.09, its lowest close since September 2010. Brent crude was last trading at $78 a barrel, down $1.40, after rising to as much as $80.44 earlier.

Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries were gathering in Vienna for a meeting on Thursday to agree how to respond to a collapse in oil prices, which have fallen by almost a third since June. 

Read More $60 oil after OPEC meeting is not possible: BRG's Grossman
 
Several OPEC members want the group to cut production dramatically to ease a global supply glut, but Saudi Arabia, the biggest exporter, appears reluctant to endorse a big cut. 



Oil tumbled 2% to near four-year lows on Tuesday in another volatile session as a meeting of Saudi Arabia and three other nations ahead of an Opec summit ended with no deal to curb crude output. 
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi held talks with officials from Venezuela, Russia and Mexico in Vienna before Thursday's summit of the Opec.

Crude prices have dropped roughly 30% since June, and some oil producers are pressuring Opec to cut production. Tuesday's pre-summit meeting ended with no sign of an accord, prompting prices to dive, Reuters reported.

A Wall Street Journal report that Opec members were edging toward a compromise aimed at adhering to previously agreed production limits sparked a brief rebound before losses deepened.

Venezuelan Foreign Minister Rafael Ramirez, pressing for some kind of deal to revive tumbling oil prices, said the four nations at Tuesday's meeting agreed that oil at below $80 was not good and that they would meet again in three months.

"It's pretty clear from today's meeting that the Saudis don't want a cut, and there's not going to be one," said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital.

Predictions for the Opec summit range from a large output cut to none at all, and heavyweight Saudi Arabia has kept the market guessing what it will do.

Benchmark Brent crude settled down $1.35 at $78.33, falling from an intraday high of $80.44.

US crude finished down $1.69 at $74.09. It fell as much as $2 in post-settlement trade, reaching $73.78, near a four-year low of $73.25 hit a little more than a week ago.

"The market's all over the place with the headlines we're getting today," said Tariq Zahir, managing member of Tyche Capital Advisors in New York. "The reality is Opec needs a cut of no less than 2 million barrels per day to clear the oversupply in the market, and they need to hold that down if they really want to see prices recover."

Even with an agreement to lower output, compliance might be tough, traders said.



Oil Bust of 1986 Reminds U.S. Drillers of Price War Risks

  Nov 26

 

The last time that U.S. oil drillers got caught up in a price war orchestrated by Saudi Arabia, it ended badly for the Americans.

In 1986, the Saudis opened the spigot and sparked a four-month, 67 percent plunge that left oil just above $10 a barrel. The U.S. industry collapsed, triggering almost a quarter-century of production declines, and the Saudis regained their leading role in the world’s oil market.

So while no one expects the Saudis to ramp up output now like they did then and U.S. shale oil companies are pledging to keep drilling regardless, the memory of that bust looms large for American industry executives on the eve of OPEC’s meeting tomorrow. As the Saudis gather with officials from the 11 other OPEC nations in Vienna, analysts are split on whether the group will cut output to lift prices or leave production unchanged to fight for market share with shale drillers.

“1986 was the big price collapse and the industry did not see it coming,” said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research in Wakefield, Massachusetts, who has covered the oil sector for 37 years. “It put a lot of them out of business. You just don’t forget it. It’s part of the cultural memory.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, responsible for about 40 percent of the world’s output, pumped 31 million barrels a day in October, exceeding its official target of 30 million.

Declining Prices

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark contract, fell to a four-year low of $74.09 yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 31 percent from the 2014 peak in June. Brent, the pricing standard for more than half of the world’s crude, settled at $78.33 on London-based ICE Futures Europe.

“Someone has to blink,” said Sarah Emerson, managing principal of ESAI Energy Inc., a consulting company in Wakefield, Massachusetts. “OPEC is saying ‘Does it really have to be us?’” 

Saudi Arabia wasn’t the first to blink in 1986. The kingdom had been the world’s swing producer for years, boosting output when prices rose and scaling back when they dropped. As fellow OPEC members pumped more crude, the kingdom’s production fell to 3.175 million barrels a day in 1985 from more than 9 million in 1981, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That left the country facing a growing budget deficit, according to Daniel Yergin’s Pulitzer Prize-winning book The Prize.

Market Share

In December 1985, Saudi Arabia declared its intention to regain market share and oil prices began to decline, sinking to as low as $10.42 a barrel in March 1986 from a November 1985 peak of $31.72.
OPEC reached a new production-sharing agreement in December 1986. By then, the damage to U.S. producers had been done. Unemployment in Oklahoma rose to 8.9 percent and in Texas to 9.3 percent, compared with the 7 percent national average. Production in Oklahoma fell 8.3 percent in 1986 and 7.1 percent in Texas, according to the Energy Information Administration.

“There was just a flood of equipment on the market,” said James Richie, cofounder of Kruse Energy & Equipment LLC in Odessa, Texas. He has been auctioning oilfield gear for 32 years, and said he conducted 86 auctions that year, more than double the typical number. “In 1986, that equipment was bringing pennies on the dollar.”

The history helps explain why U.S. producers are blaming Saudi Arabia and OPEC for falling prices now and that they say are designed to push them out of business. 

Shale Battle

“We’re in a battle with Saudi Arabia in regard to market share versus U.S. shale oil,” Scott Sheffield, chairman and chief executive officer of Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (PXD), said on a Nov. 5 earnings call.

“What we’re dealing with here is a renaissance that’s going to be very long-lasting here in the U.S.,” said Harold Hamm, chairman and CEO of Continental (CLR) Resources Inc., in a Nov. 6 earnings call. “And we see OPEC worried about that.”

The Saudis don’t see it that way. Saudi Arabia is committed to seeking a “stable” oil price and speculation of a battle between crude producers “has no basis in reality” Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said at a conference in Acapulco, Mexico, on Nov. 12.

The slump isn’t, regardless of what U.S. producers say, all the fault of Saudi Arabia or OPEC. The group has boosted output by more than 1 million barrels a day since June, led by gains from Libya and Iraq, according to a Bloomberg survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. The Saudis’ contribution was an additional 80,000 barrels. U.S. producers, meanwhile, ramped up output by 621,000 barrels.

Increased Supply

Taken together, the increases are more than enough to supply the 1.1 million barrels a day of worldwide demand growth the Paris-based International Energy Agency has forecast for all of next year.

The glut hasn’t stopped U.S. shale companies from drilling new wells. Top producers including Devon Energy Corp., Continental and Pioneer are planning double-digit production gains next year.

“The U.S. oil industry is blaming the Saudis for a problem that was created here,” Emerson said. “It’s like a gold rush. Everyone is trying to get as much out of the ground as fast as possible.” 

Whether this slump proves as calamitous as 1986 depends how long it lasts. Many U.S. producers bought derivatives that protect them against declining prices. That insurance has its limits, and for some companies it will run out after the first half of 2015. 

Less Cash

Shrinking revenue will leave less cash to pour into the ground, making some companies vulnerable to a credit crunch. Much of the shale boom is sustained by borrowed money. Total debt for 61 of the U.S.-listed companies in the Bloomberg Intelligence North America Independent E&P Valuation Peers reached $199 billion in the third quarter, up from $184 billion a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

“There’s no doubt that you’ll see a lot of people who are vulnerable, especially the smaller players who don’t have deep pockets, and are already deep into other people’s pockets,” Lynch said. “Some of them are already hurting.” 



Tuesday, 25 November 2014

Multi-baggers



  
 Pter Lych's Interview with PBS



Q You originated the expression "four bagger", "five bagger" et cetera. What's that mean exactly?



A
I've always been a great lover of baseball. I mean if you grew up in Boston, you know that the last time we won the World Series, Babe Ruth pitched for us. It was 1918. So it's been a long drought here. So I've always loved baseball and the ten bagger is two home-runs and a double. It's you run around a lot, so it's very exciting.



A
You made ten times your money. Is a ten bagger.








Q That's pretty good.




A
Excellent. You don't need a lot in your lifetime. You only need a few good stocks in your lifetime. I mean how many times do you need a stock to go up ten-fold to make a lot of money? Not a lot.

(CW8888 is doing somewhat differently by including dividends to reach 10 bagger. OK. Cheating a bit. LOL!)


Q Was that your secret?


A
Well, I think the secret is if you have a lot of stocks, some will do mediocre, some will do okay, and if one of two of 'em go up big time, you produce a fabulous result. And I think that's the promise to some people. Some stocks go up 20-30 percent and they get rid of it and they hold onto the dogs. And it's sort of like watering the weeds and cutting out the flowers. You want to let the winners run. 

When the fun ones get better, add to 'em, and that one winner, you basically see a few stocks in your lifetime, that's all you need. I mean stocks are out there. When I ran Magellan, I wrote a book. I think I listed over a hundred stocks that went up over ten-fold when I ran Magellan and I owned thousands of stocks. I owned none of these stocks.

I missed every one of these stocks that went up over ten-fold. I didn't own a share of them. And I still managed to do well with Magellan. So there's lots of stocks out there and all you need is a few of 'em. So that's been my philosophy. You have to let the big ones make up for your mistakes.

In this business if you're good, you're right six times out of ten. You're never going to be right nine times out of ten. This is not like pure science where you go, "Aha" and you've got the answer. By the time you've got "Aha," Chrysler's already quadrupled or Boeing's quadrupled. You have to take a little bit of risk.


Grand old investor and gambler??? Recalling



Read? Grand old investor and gambler???


When we reach our 80s, will we say the same to somebody at the dinner reception?


Yield or Without yield over long run. That is the definitive difference.



Monday, 24 November 2014

Save more than 60%. No need to invest??? (2)


Read? Save more than 60%. No need to invest???

After hearing someone with $5.2M and lost $1m punting in the stock market; she is not wrong in not investing as she had enough to retire with an asset draw down strategy.

How many of us actually feel the sharp pain of inflation impact?

Likely, most of us will get over the price hike after a few rounds of purchase.

Do you feel painful when you eat $3 chicken rice now?



But, when you lost large sum of money, it can be painful for many years whenever you think of it. Some even chop fingers and never ever touch it again!
 

 


Do you have what it takes to withstand the bear market? Yes. I do!


Read? Do you have what it takes to withstand the bear market?


Read? Retirement Income For Life Planning Model



Do you have what it takes to withstand the bear market?  

Yes. I do!





Uncle88888 is mentally and financially well prepared to take the test for PHD. in Stock Market with his Three Taps solution and a War Chest.





















But, when he sees his 15-year CAGR dropping below 2.6%, can he still sing song and talk cock about long-term investing?




Singapore's inflation slows further in October

SINGAPORE: Inflation in Singapore slowed further in October, due to fluctuations in COE premiums and declines in costs of accommodation and oil-related items, according to the Department of Statistics on Monday (Nov 24).

The consumer price index (CPI) came in lower at 0.1 per cent year-on-year in October, from 0.6 per cent in September.

Private road transport cost decreased by 5.6 per cent, following the 2.8 per cent fall in September, largely due to the high base a year ago, while accommodation cost slid 1 per cent, extending the 0.6 per cent correction in the previous month - a result of the soft housing rental market, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in a joint news release.

Prices of oil-related items, including electricity tariffs and petrol pump prices, fell by 2.1 per cent in October after edging down by 0.6 per cent in the preceding month, given the recent weakness in global oil prices.

Food inflation moderated to 2.8 per cent from 3 per cent in September, as prices of both non-cooked food items and prepared meals rose at a slower pace.

Services inflation came in at 1.7 per cent, unchanged from the preceding month, as the higher costs of recreation and entertainment and holiday travel were offset by smaller increases in school tuition fees and household services cost.

Core inflation – which excludes changes in the price of private road transport and accommodation since these are influenced more by government policies – fell to 1.7 per cent year-on-year in October, down from 1.9 per cent the previous month. This was largely due to the steeper decline in electricity tariffs, the news release said.

Consequently, core inflation is expected to average 2 to 2.5 per cent this year and 2 to 3 per cent next year, while CPI-All Items inflation is expected to come in at 1 to 1.5 per cent this year and 0.5 to 1.5 per cent in 2015. 

Is Bear Market that Scary???



Bear market is scary only when the Bear hits us hard! Damn hard!


How did Uncle8888 feel during past Bears?


1987 : Where got lots of spare money to put into stock market?

Most of his past saving gone into HDB, renovation, wedding and honey moon; but not to the Bear.


Me no pain felt!

Other people pain.



1998 : Not much money in the stock market


Children ate money. Not Bear!




But, this time he personally witnessed the great pain and suffering of financial losses by close relatives in CLOB Saga. One of them was near bankruptcy due to share financing scheme provided by Finance companies. 


Read? Harsh lessons from 1997/98 and 2007/08 stock crisis


Leverages is always a double-edged sword.  

Can avoid. Avoid. No free lunch in making fast money.



Me no great pain felt but learned something very important.



Till today, home CEO still don't believe in the stock market to create wealth. The Unforgettable Pain!




2009:  The Great Pain in me!


Simi Create Wealth in the Stock Market? Chun Bo?


It is more like Destroy Wealth in the Stock Market!
















The Next Great Bear?


Uncle8888 has been preparing himself mentally and financially to face the next Great Bear.


He is 99% confident that he wouldn't be crazy cutting losses like in end 2008 to recover some capital for re-investing or doing horse switching strategy.






 


Sunday, 23 November 2014

Show us your IRAS Tax Return and Tax Payable???



You made millions from trading?

Show us your IRAS Tax Return and Tax Payable for 2014!


Trust, Poke and Verify - SMOL


Ask at your next free previews and share the reaction from the Gurus.










Know Your Net Worth???



Surprisingly, Uncle8888 realized that not many people in his office bother to periodically track and update their Net Worth. Probably, they are not aware of knowing their Net Worth is an essential in their financial planning journey.

Hmm..  may be they are Grasshoppers. 

Why plan so much? 

For what? The Sun will rise tomorrow. No?



How about you?


It is not difficult to track Net Worth. Dr Wealth has free tracking tool to do that or Google for worksheet.




Saturday, 22 November 2014

More homes sold through public auctions


SINGAPORE: Of all the private homes being sold through public auctions, about 70 per cent were put on sale by their owners, according to Colliers International which holds one such auction every month.

The remaining are put on auction by banks. Seventy-four per cent of all auctioned properties this year were condominiums while the rest were landed properties.

Colliers said more homes were being auctioned off due to rising interest rates and defaults in mortgage payments.

"This is because of the tighter financing and regulatory environment, which makes it difficult for borrowers on default to dispose their property on their own in the open market. 

Consequently if they are in default, the bank will repossess the property for auction sale," said Grace Ng, Deputy Managing Director of Colliers International.

According to numbers from the Credit Bureau (Singapore), 25 homeowners were unable to pay their mortgages in the first nine months of this year. This was compared to 10 in the same period time last year.

The number of those who delayed their payments for more than 30 days also rose by about 12 per cent, to almost 9,000.

Market Cycles of What???


Just For Thinking ..


Market cycles are nothing more than past and future cycles of ....


Greed and Fear!

Love and Hate!

Cash is King. Cash is rotting!


Wu Lampar and Bo Lampar!


Read? DBS: Just 1.7% to 2007 Peak


DBS is Uncle8888's No 3.

His most hated one in 2008 now became his most beloved one. The only one in his portfolio to recover near 2007 peak stock price.  The rest of them are far behind 2007 peak. Sianz!



Why DBS is his most hated one in 2008?



Pain!

Great pain in his ass!


In 2008, when every other day, he read bad news and prediction of Great Depression 2.0 coming. It could last more 10 years! His thought of Ah Boi and Ah Ger going to university in August 2009 getting him more worries. 


Where is the money? 

Simi Create Wealth in the Stock Market???

It is more like Destroy Wealth!!!

Shit!

His lampar shrunk!

Great pain in his ass became real!


His most hated one: DBS!

Why?








Round 17: ROC - 31.1%, 232 days, B $24.20 S $16.80




Round 16: ROC - 21.6%, 222 days, B $23.20 S $18.32

Round 15: ROC - 18.1%, 186 days, B $22.90 S $18.88


Round 14: ROC - 9.2%, 70 days, B $21.00 S $19.20

Round 13: ROC +9%, 65 days, B $20.50 S $22.50



Round 12: ROC +10.6%, 8 days, B $20.50 S $22.60


The highest purchase of $24.20 is $19.07 after adjusting for right issue. It has since recovered its losses too.




No 3 is currently loved by the Market.  His hate in 2008 now became his beloved one in 2014.

No 1 is his smelly Oily man.

No 2 is his Power Less Generators dragged further down by its smelly oily brother.




One great investing lesson in 2009 in Mathematically term he has learned and must remember hard:


The size of one's lampar is directly proportionally to the size of one's War Chest when the market crashes!



 
 








Dow, S&P 500 power to new records on China stimulus



STI super sianz!!!























NEW YORK: US stocks rose to fresh records on Friday (Nov 21), easily eclipsing prior peaks following China's surprise interest-rate cut.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 91.06 points (0.51 per cent) to 17,810.06, posting its second straight record close.

The broad-based S&P 500 gained 10.75 points (0.52 per cent) to 2,063.50, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 11.10 points (0.24 per cent) to 4,712.97.

The People's Bank of China unexpectedly cut benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years to boost sagging economic growth. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank, said China's move was "a huge benefit" for global economy.

Analysts also were encouraged by comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi that the bank is ready to immediately expand stimulus efforts to return the eurozone to its inflation objective.
The twin China and ECB moves were "big news," said Alan Skrainka, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth Management. "It's just the prescription the doctor ordered," Skrainka said. "There is a serious risk of deflation in Europe and China was struggling to maintain its growth goal as well."

Equity markets in Britain (+1.1 per cent), France (+2.7 per cent) and Germany (+2.6 per cent) all rose.
Dow member Caterpillar, a big supplier to Chinese industry, gained 4.3 per cent.

Miners Freeport-McMoRan (+3.6 per cent) and Southern Copper (+4.6 per cent) rose on rising copper prices in anticipation of stronger Chinese demand, while oil stocks like Dow member ExxonMobil (+1.0 per cent) and Halliburton (+2.9 per cent) also gained.

Dow member Microsoft fell 1.5 per cent after Jefferies rated it "underperform." Jefferies said the tech giant's position in mobile technology is weak and that chief executive Satya Nadella is unlikely to make significant changes.

Sotheby's bolted 6.9 per cent higher after it announced that chief executive William Ruprecht stepped down. The move follows pressure by activist shareholder Daniel Loeb, who pushed his way onto the Sotheby's board earlier this year.

Hertz Global Holdings gained 4.5 per cent as it named former United Airlines chief operating officer John Tague as its new chief executive. The appointment comes after another prominent activist, Carl Icahn, won three Hertz board seats in September.

Bond prices rose. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to 2.32 per cent from 2.34 per cent on Thursday, while the 30-year dipped to 3.02 per cent from 3.05 per cent. Bond yields and prices move inversely.

Friday, 21 November 2014

DBS: Just 1.7% to 2007 Peak





Reaching Financial Independence???



Is there any confusion over the meaning of Reaching Financial Independence over early Retirees from workforce?



Do you?



Me as a Pig!

Read?  Horse, Cow, and Pig (Re-posted)





Thursday, 20 November 2014

5 Ways to Put Money to Work for You




Most of us need to work in order to get money. But your money can also work for you. In fact, your money can do most of the work to help you retire comfortably if you save and invest consistently. Here's how to make your assets propel you to a secure retirement. 

Start saving.  

The first step is to save a portion of every paycheck in a savings or investment account. Your money can't begin to work for you unless you set some aside for the future. Putting the money in a retirement account can help it grow even faster without the drag of taxes


Savings snowball. 

Once your money starts to generate returns, that amount will be added to your savings and generate its own returns. If you don't spend the income from your investments, the extra cash makes your original ball of savings even bigger. You can also add windfalls such as tax refunds or bonuses to your pot of savings to make it grow even faster. Plus, you can always find ways to make extra money to add to the investments. 

Money works nonstop 24/7

As long as you leave the money in the account it will continue to work for you. Equity valuations can be pretty volatile, but the long term trajectory is always up because the global economy as a whole is always growing. In addition, many investments pay out cash regularly in the form of dividends and interest. You get paid even if you don't do any work. As long as you don't raid the accounts, your money will work for you. 


You may have to pay fees to manage it (But, Uncle8888 doesn't like)

In some cases having money can cost you money. You might need to pay a financial adviser to help you manage it or end up invested in an actively managed mutual fund where a fund manager takes a cut of the profits to help you manage your stash. However, you can always minimize the fees by investing yourself using low cost index funds. Pay careful attention to the expense ratio and other fees associated with each investment you select.


Create a passive income stream. 


If you save and invest for long enough, your investment returns may be able to replace the income you earn by working. The money you have in an investment account can be used to build passive income. As you make long term investments with your money consistently through the thick or thin, the amount of money you have invested will continue to grow. As you accumulate wealth, you build passive income to a point where work is optional. I've been saving and investing for a couple decades already, allowing me to routinely turn down lucrative work opportunities that cut too much into my family time. The key is to understand how equity markets work and to develop a long term game plan so you don't panic and sell at the next inevitable stock market crash. 


Getting money to work better for us is actually relatively easy. Relatively new innovations such as low cost index funds and discount brokerages are making investing more affordable than ever before. It's reducing spending and saving more that is extremely difficult for some people. If you make an effort to manage your own investments and minimize fees you will be able to invest even more efficiently and effectively. Many of us work very hard to earn our paychecks. Saving that money and investing it consistently can make your money generate returns for you. 


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