As from April 2013 my Journey in Investing is to create Retirement Income for Life till 80 years old for two over market cycles of Bull and Bear.

Welcome to Ministry of Wealth!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down



Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Saturday, 30 April 2011

Politicians and Stock Gurus

Just For Laugh ....

SAME

They like to claim that they are GIVING back to the society


DIFFERENT

One ask for your Vote and the Other ask for your Money.

Friday, 29 April 2011

Analyst sees STI dent if PAP margin slides

Read? When the Market moves, Are you ready for it?

By JAMIE LEE


(SINGAPORE) Sell first and ask questions later - that's how foreign investors may react to a freak election result, noted a brief report by AmFraser Securities this week.

The brokerage expects the benchmark index to slump by as much as 15 per cent, or to about 2,750 points, if the People's Action Party (PAP) loses two-thirds majority. The report did not cite any historical benchmarks to back up the anticipated selldown under this circumstance.

'The market reaction could be very bearish as foreign investors likely to sell first to reassess the situation,' wrote AmFraser analyst Najeeb Jarhom, calling the freak results 'unthinkable'.




The Straits Times Index (STI) may also take a 'long time' to recover, he added.

If the share of votes held by the ruling party falls to 55 per cent, or if there is a loss of more than three GRCs, the market could still react negatively in the short term, said Mr Jarhom.

This could translate to a 150-point loss to about 3,000 points, though the recovery should be faster in this case.

But there may be no impact if a GRC is awarded to the Opposition even if that means a loss of two to three ministers, as long as heavyweight ministers retain their seats, he added.

An earlier BT analysis showed that over the past two decades, the results from Singapore's general elections have had little immediate impact on the market.

There is, however, a correlation between the benchmark index's performance a month after the elections, based on the results from the 2001 and 2006 elections, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has noted.

In the GE of 2006, when PAP's share of votes fell 14.2 per cent to 66.6 per cent, the STI fell 10 per cent in the subsequent month. And when the PAP swept 75 per cent of valid votes in 2001, the STI surged 20 per cent in the month after.

DBS posts record Q1 profit

SINGAPORE - DBS, Southeast Asia's biggest lender, posted a record quarterly profit for the first three months of 2011, beating expectations on falling bad-debt charges, strong investment banking fees and a surge in trading income.

This is the third straight quarter that DBS has posted better-than-expected earnings, signalling a turnaround in its business despite low interest rates, which has hurt Singapore's biggest bank in the past because of its struggle to deploy its large deposit base profitably.

CEO Piyush Gupta, who took charge in Nov 2009 and has been praised for cleaning up the bank's balance sheet, said the bank will continue to focus on strengthening its business in Asia.

'Going forward, while the global economy remains fraught with uncertainty, and the interest rate climate continues to provide headwinds, we believe that efforts to strengthen our franchise in Asia will continue to bear fruit,' Mr Gupta said in a statement.

DBS posted a net profit of S$807 million (US$657 million) for Jan-March against S$532 million a year earlier. That compared with an average forecast of S$685 million, according to seven analysts surveyed by Reuters.



DBS's result exceeded the previous record net profit of S$722 million posted in July-September last year.



DBS was late posting its results this morning because of technical problems at the Singapore Exchange.



Strong economic growth has boosted Singapore bank profits in the past few quarters, helping cut bad debts and lifting loan growth, but low interest rates have prevented banks from taking full advantage of the rapid loan expansion.



Mr Gupta told reporters after a shareholder meeting on Thursday that he does not see a US rate tightening later this year as was expected earlier.



Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signalled on Wednesday that the US central bank is in no rush to scale back its support for the economy with the labour market still in a 'very, very deep hole.'



The three month interbank offered rate (Sibor) is currently at 0.44 per cent, languishing near record lows amid weak US interest rates.



Bad-debt charges declined 65 per cent to S$125 million from a year ago and 20 per cent from the fourth quarter. Net interest income rose 5 per cent to S$1.12 billion as net interest margins declined to 1.80 per cent from 1.93 per cent from a year earlier, but were little changed from the fourth quarter.



DBS said loan growth rose 18 per cent from a year earlier amid strong corporate borrowings in Singapore, Hong Kong and other Asian markets.



Fees and commission income rose 22 per cent to S$416 million, while trading income rose 12 per cent from a year earlier and 57 per cent from the fourth quarter.



The first quarter saw the listing of Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing's US$5.5 billion Hutchison Port Holdings Trust's IPO in Singapore, a deal advised by DBS.



As of Thursday, DBS shares were up about 4.2 per cent so far this year, underperforming a 9.7 per cent rise in United Overseas Bank's shares. Shares of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp have fallen about 3.8 per cent so far this year after gaining about 9 per cent in 2010 when it outperformed its rivals. -- REUTERS

Olam - Sold $2.93, ROC 20.8%

Stuffing feathers for a bigger pillow since 22 Jul 2008 from 6.3% to 20.8%

Round 8: ROC 20.8%, 65 days, B $2.41 S $2.93



Round 7: ROC 15.8%, 311 days, B $2.48 S $2.89
Round 6: ROC 10.2%, 8 days, B $2.39 S $2.65
Round 5: ROC 6.3%, 3 days, B $2.45 S $2.62 (Bought back higher)
Round 4: ROC 5.9%, 15 days, B $2.26 S $2.41
Round 3: ROC 9.6%, 8 days, B $2.18 S $2.40
Round 2: ROC 7.0%, 8 days, B $2.18 S $2.35 (Bought back higher)
Round 1: ROC 9.8%, 161 days, B $1.37 S $1.52

When the Market moves, Are you ready for it?



The market hates uncertainty

When I am faced with market uncertainty and need to restrategise, I will always fall back to those investing lessons that I learnt from my sifu (retired ex-colleague many years back) who has only lost his money twice in stock market in 1987 and 1997/98.

"Better to REGRET not making more than to be SORRY of losing it BACK!" - Sifu of Createwealth8888

I may have to step up my selling program to recover more of my Capital to fight the next battle. As investor, I have to be wise and know what to do next as market hates uncertainty.

Wednesday, 27 April 2011

Know thy investor psychology

It has driven bull and bear phases in investment markets and is responsible for irrational decision-making and collective behaviours

By SHANE OLIVER

UP UNTIL the 1980s the dominant theory was that financial markets were efficient - in other words all relevant information was reflected in asset prices and in a rational manner. While some think that it was the global financial crisis with its collapse in credit markets and consequent 50 per cent fall in global shares that caused faith in the so-called Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) to begin unravelling, this actually occurred in the 1980s.

In fact, it was probably the October 1987 crash that drove the nail in the coffin of the EMH as it was virtually impossible to explain why US shares fell over 30 per cent and Australian shares fell 50 per cent in a two month period when there was very little in the way of new information to justify such a move. It's also hard to explain the 80 per cent slump in the tech heavy Nasdaq index between 2000 and 2002 on the basis of fundamentals alone. Sure, there was an economic downturn and slump in IT demand at the time - but this is normal and should have been allowed for in setting share prices. Study after study has shown that share market volatility is way too high to be explained by investment fundamentals alone. Something else is obviously at play, and that is investor psychology.

Investor psychology

Several aspects of investor psychology interact in helping drive bull and bear phases in investment markets, including individual lapses of logic and crowd psychology.

Irrational individuals

Numerous studies by psychologists have shown that people are not rational and tend to suffer from various lapses of logic. The most significant examples are as follows.

  • Extrapolating the present into the future - people tend to downplay uncertainty and assume recent trends, whether good or bad, will continue.
  • Giving more weight to recent spectacular or personal experiences in assessing the probability of events occurring. This results in an emotional involvement with an investment strategy - if an investor has experienced a winning investment lately, he or she is likely to expect that it will remain so. Once a bubble gets underway, investors' emotional commitment to it continuing steadily rises, thus helping to perpetuate it.
  • Overconfidence - people tend to be overconfident in their own investment abilities. This is particularly the case for men.
  • Too slow in adjusting expectations - people tend to be overly conservative in adjusting their expectations to new information and do so slowly over time. This partly explains why bubbles and crashes in share markets normally unfold over long periods.
  • Selective use of information - people tend to ignore information that conflicts with current views. In other words, they make their own reality. This again helps to perpetuate a bubble once it gets underway.
  • Wishful thinking - people tend to require less information to predict a desirable event than an undesirable one. This may partly explain why asset price bubbles normally precede crashes.
  • Myopic loss aversion - people tend to dislike losing money more than they like gaining it. Various experiments have found that a potential gain must be twice the potential loss before an investor will consider accepting the risk. An aversion to any loss, particularly in the short term, probably explains why shares traditionally are able to provide a relatively high return (or risk premium) relative to 'safer' assets like cash or government bonds.
Madding crowds

As if individual irrationality is not enough, it tends to get magnified and reinforced by 'crowd psychology'. Investment markets have long been considered as providing examples of crowd psychology at work. Collective behaviour in investment markets requires the presence of several things:

  • a means where behaviour can be contagious - mass communication with the proliferation of the financial media both in print and electronic form are a perfect example of this. More than ever, investors are drawing their information from the same sources, which in turn results in an ever increasing correlation of views amongst investors, thus reinforcing trends;
  • pressure for conformity - interaction with friends, monthly performance charts, industry standards and benchmarking, all help result in herding amongst investors;
  • a precipitating event or displacement that gives rise to a general belief that motivates investor behaviour. The IT revolution of the late 1990s or the growth in China and emerging markets are classic examples of this on the positive side. The demise of Lehman Brothers and related events setting off investor panic is an example of such a displacement on the negative side; and
  • a general belief which grows and spreads - eg, share prices can only go up or alternatively, shares are a poor investment - this helps reinforce the trend set off by the initial displacement.
Bubbles, busts

The combination of lapses of logic by individuals in making investment decisions and the magnification of it by crowd psychology go a long way to explaining why speculative surges in asset prices develop (usually after some good news) and how they feed on themselves (as individuals project recent price gains into the future, exercise 'wishful thinking' and receive positive feedback via the media). Of course, this also explains how the whole process goes into reverse once buying is exhausted, often triggered by contrary news to that which drove the rise.



The graphic above, which was developed many years ago by Russell Investments, shows pretty well how investor psychology appears to develop through a market cycle. When times are good, investors move from optimism to excitement, and eventually euphoria as an asset's price - be it shares, housing, gold or whatever - moves higher and higher. So by the time the market tops out, investors are maximum bullish and fully invested. This ultimately sets the scene for a bit of bad news to sooner or later push prices lower. As selling intensifies and prices fall further, investor emotion goes from anxiety to depression, and eventually to capitulation and despondency. By the time the market bottoms out, investors are maximum bearish and out of the market. This then sets the scene for the market to bottom as it only requires a bit of good news (or less bad news as is often the case) to bring back buying, and then the cycle repeats.

This pattern has been repeated time and time again over the years. In the late 1990s, investor psychology became euphoric on enthusiasm for tech stocks. Broad media enthusiasm for shares was highlighted by best selling books such as Dow 36,000 and Dow 100,000. Cracks in the tech boom appeared in March 2000, leading to initial anxiety which eventually gave way to capitulation and despondency in late 2002 and early 2003. By 2007, the focus of investor euphoria had reappeared but was focused on credit, the US housing market and commodities. At the depths of the global financial crisis in early 2009, this again turned to capitulation and despondency with respect to most growth-oriented investments, which in turn helped set the scene for the recovery in investment markets over the last two years as the GFC subsided and economic data started to improve.

There are several points to note from all this. Firstly, confidence and investor psychology do not act in a vacuum. The move from despondency at the bottom of a cycle to euphoria at the top is usually ultimately underpinned by fundamental developments, eg strong economic growth and easy monetary conditions.

Second, at market extremes, confidence is best read in a contrarian fashion - major bull markets do not start when investors are feeling euphoric and major bear markets do not start when they are feeling depressed. The reason is that by the time investor confidence has reached these extremes, all those who wish to buy (or sell) have done so - meaning it only requires a small amount of bad news (or good news) to tip investors back the other way. So extreme low points in investor confidence are often associated with market bottoms, and vice versa for extreme highs. For this reason, many strategists monitor investor sentiment as a guide to when market extremes may have been reached. Currently, short term measures of investor sentiment are around average levels, suggesting no strong reading either way. However, longer term measures suggests that investors are still pretty cautious towards shares, which from a contrarian perspective suggests more upside for shares over time.

Meaning for investors?

There are a number of implications for investors.


1. The first thing investors need to do is recognise that investment markets are not only driven by fundamentals, but also by the often-irrational and erratic behaviour of an unstable crowd of other investors. Investors also need to recognise that not only are investment markets highly unstable, they can also be highly seductive. The key here is to be aware of past market booms and busts, so that when they arise in the future, one does not overreact (piling into unstable bubbles near the top or selling everything during busts and locking in a loss at the bottom).

2. Investors need to recognise their own emotional capabilities. In other words, investors must be aware of how they are influenced by lapses in their own logic and crowd influences. For example, an investor should ask, 'am I highly affected by recent developments (whether positive or negative)? Am I too confident in my own expectations? Can I bear a paper loss?'

3. Investors ought to choose an investment strategy which can withstand inevitable crises whilst remaining consistent with their financial objectives and risk tolerance.

4. Investors should essentially stick to this broad strategy even when surging share prices otherwise tempt them to consider a more aggressive approach, or when plunging values might suck them into a highly defensive approach.

5. Finally, if an investor is tempted to trade, they should do so on a contrarian basis. Buy when the crowd is bearish, sell when it is bullish. Extremes of bullishness often signal market tops, and extremes of bearishness often signal market bottoms. But investors need to recognise contrarian investing is not fool-proof - just because the crowd looks irrationally bullish (or bearish) doesn't mean it can't get more so.

Concluding comments

The bottom line is investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and helps explain why asset prices go through periodic booms and busts. The key point for investors is to be aware of the role of investor psychology and the influence that psychological illusions can have on both the market and themselves.

Finally, some may be thinking that if investment markets are not efficient and prone to swings from irrational pessimism to irrational exuberance, how can we rely on them to best allocate scarce resources throughout the economy? The answer is simple - for all their faults, free capital markets are far better at this task than centralised government bureaucracies.

The Best Fight in GE 2011 is here!

In Aljunied GRC, the Workers' Party is fielding party leaders Low Thia Khiang and Sylvia Lim, and members Chen Show Mao, Muhamad Faisal and Pritam Singh. Their opponents are PAP's George Yeo, Lim Hwee Hua, Zainul Abidin Rasheed, Cynthia Phua and Ong Ye Kung.

------------------------------------
Createwealth8888:

I live in an election hot spot and always got FIGHT one; but this time it is the BIGGEST FIGHT in the Election history of Singapore hor.

Biosensors - Sold @ $1.35 at ROC 30%

This counter has been stuck so long since Jan 2008 for 1192 days hor.


So am I being patient, stubborn, greedy or stupid?

Stuffing more feathers into a potential Multi-Bagger Pillow Stock. Cheers!


Round 4: ROC 28.1%, 1192 days, B $1.03 S $1.35


Round 3: ROC 28.1%, 1186 days, B $1.03 S $1.33
Round 2: ROC 22.1%, 1022 days, B $0.98 S $1.21
Round 1: ROC 1.1%, 1 day, B $0.830 S $0.845

Tuesday, 26 April 2011

CapitaLand achieves 1Q2011 net profit of S$101.5 million

Singapore, 26 April 2011 – CapitaLand has achieved net profit of S$101.5 million in 1Q2011, 241% higher than the restated 1Q2010 net profit of S$29.8 million.

The 2010 results were required to be restated to be comparable to the current year’s results as a consequence of the adoption of the INT FRS 115 accounting policy which was effective on 1 January 2011.

Revenue in 1Q2011 was S$611.5 million, 39% higher than 1Q2010. This was mainly due to higher contributions from the Group’s development projects. These include residential projects such as The Interlace and The Wharf Residence in Singapore, Beau Residences and The Riviera in China; as well as commercial, industrial and residential projects in Australia.

Group Earnings before Interest and Tax (EBIT) for 1Q2011 was S$283.5 million, 46% higher than that achieved in 1Q2010. This was mainly due to higher profits from development projects, higher portfolio gains and lower foreign exchange losses.

EBIT from overseas operations represented 54%, or S$152.0 million, of the Group’s total EBIT for 1Q2011. China recorded higher EBIT due to higher development profits as well as portfolio gains from the realisation of available-for-sale reserves in respect of LFIE Holding.

In respect of INT FRS 115 which became effective on 1 January 2011, CapitaLand is of the view that the implementation of this standard will result in the accounting recognition of the Group’s overseas development projects in a manner that may not reflect the sales and construction progress of those projects. In particular, the new standard will result in income recognition that is lumpy and back-ended, thus creating more volatility in profit recognition even though the underlying projects’ cashflows have not changed. It also does not reflect the gradual reduction of risk and the increase in economic value from these underlying projects as they are built and sold over their development phases.

Monday, 25 April 2011

Singapore's March CPI up 5% on-year, 0.1% on-month

SINGAPORE: Singapore's consumer price index rose five per cent on year in March, after a similar five per cent rise in February.


The inflation rate was in line with economist forecasts.

Compared with the month before, consumer prices was almost flat, rising just 0.1 per cent, according to the Department of Statistics (DOS).

DOS said the higher costs of housing, clothing and footwear, as well as "recreation and others" was partially offset by the lower cost of transport.

On a month-on-month basis, housing costs rose 0.6 per cent, due to higher accommodation costs.

Prices of clothing and footwear were up 2.5 per cent as a result of more expensive ready-made garments and footwear.

Recreation and others rose 0.3 per cent on higher prices of travel and cigarettes.

Meanwhile, the cost of transport fell 0.6 per cent owing to lower car prices.

Compared with the same period a year ago, transport costs rose 13.4 per cent, on higher prices for cars and petrol.

Higher electricity tariffs and higher accommodation costs pushed housing costs up by 7.1 per cent.

Food prices increased 2.6 per cent due to more expensive prepared meals, vegetables, seafood, meat & poultry, milk, eggs and fruit.

For the first quarter this year, the consumer price index increased by 5.2 per cent compared to the same period a year ago.

- CNA/fa

Sunday, 24 April 2011

Go with Fund flows

invest, thesundaytimes, April 24, 2011

Market-picking could be more profitable than stock-picking.

... So, given the vast changes in the global financial landscape, rather than stock-picking, it may be time to consider market-picking as part of your investment strategy.

Read? Who Moves My Market?

Yalor. Something similar to what I am doing it now. I am using Pilot Fish indicator. So far, it has been profitable for me.

Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (13)

Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (12)

To Investing HELL in 2009 and Back

If you have been reading Uncle8888 blog since 2006, you will know that his investing journey is not all rosy and sweet. There were moments of horrors and sorrows; but Uncle8888 has managed to survive to tell you this. You can lose your money in the stock market; but DON'T ever lose your confidence in stock investing.

Keep learning and revising your strategy to meet your investing goals.

Uncle8888 strongly believes that for some small retail investors who are not high income earners like him (His Growth Dividend is $700. His Child Tax Rebates - Uncle8888 couldn't even use up in 14 years while some people could use it up in just 3 years!  He is from Single Income household with 3 kids).













Stock market is the still a good place to build up your wealth slowly without taking too much risks to supplement your small saving (unless you want to squeeze every penny out of your expenses) from your day job.

Uncle8888 is just like your next door neighbour in HDB heartland. If he can do it. You can too!
Uncle8888 is now nearer to his Financial Independence stage in 2011 as in 2007

As of last market closing on 21 Apr 20011, his net worth is 8% more to go before stepping into his Financial Independence stage where staying employed becomes an option.




In 2007, he didn't believe that Big Bear was any time sooner and he was caught naked. This time is different, he now guards against the Bear and is better prepared for it; but he fears the Black Swan most. He only smiles a little at the Bull and not too greedy to want more from the market.

How did Uncle8888 make it back from Investing Hell?

No Leverages, No Property, No Overseas stocks, No Penny stocks, and No S-chips. He just holds a few long-term multi-baggers blue chips and doing many short-term trading on some blue chips. Nothing fanciful. You can even say that he is totally RISK Averse .

What are the few Blue Chips he holds and trades?

Kep Corp, SCI, DBS, Noble, SML, Olam, CPL, NOL, ...

Happy Easter!

This post may be an Easter Egg for you to regain your confidence in making money in the stock market if you have been losing money till now.



Saturday, 23 April 2011

Playing The Game of Leverage (4)

Read? Playing The Game of Leverage (3)

The mind of an investor can easily change their perception of risk/reward when the investing idea for the SAME financial instrument is presented in different scenarios depending on the mind perceiving it as Greed, Doubt or Fear.

Let take DBS 6% NCPS as an example for such financial instrument

Scenario 1

I believe Investor easily has SPARE $20K that can be used for investing; but he rather keep it in bank or money market earning low return of 1% for whatever reasons or simply waiting for better investing opportunity to come.

If you ask him to invest this SPARE $20K in DBS 6% NCPS to earn passive income of 4%. He have to think hard whether is this a good idea or not?

Scenario 2

But for the same financial instrument, in this case DBS 6% NCPS can be thought to be a good candidate for leveraging for passive income.

To use your OWN money to invest in such financial instrument to earn passive income.  NOT SURE.

To BORROW $20K and use it as leverage for passive income looked like a good idea. Really strange? Greed playing out in the investor's mind? 

CPL Weekly

STI vs. DOW since Oct 2008


What did you see from the chart?

Will STI play catching up game with DOW?

Playing The Game of Leverage (3)

Read? Playing The Game of Leverage (2)

The story continues ....

After pocketing the difference of 4% by leveraging on his borrowed $10K from the Banker, the Investor happily told his Wife that he has finally found a new way of leveraging for passive income. She listened attentively to him and thought deeply for a while and said: "Honey, your Banker has short-changed you by paying you only 1% per annum. Why not you keep your $40K with me? I will double the Bank rate and give you 2% per annum."

Investor: "Wow, That is a Good Deal and I will pass $40K to you!"

She then invested $40K in DBS 6% NCPS to receive dividends.

One year later year, the Wife received 6% Returns from her $40K investment in DBS 6% NCPS from DBS. She passed 2% to her husband and pocketed the difference of 4%. Investor was lagi happy as he too pocketed 4% difference by leveraging his $10K borrowing and has received an extra 1% by lending $40K to her Wife. His wife was most happy as she made the highest returns by leveraging on her husband's $40K without any capital of her own. Couple was very happy with each other investing performance on receiving passive income.

Investor said to his Wife: " Since this wonderful strategy of Leveraging for Passive Income is working so well for us. We shouldn't be too selfish and keep it to ourselves. Let us share it with Uncle Billy and Auntie Cilly too."

The moral of the story ....

It is how the mind may play out when the greater Greed take control over it.

Do you believe the couple is happily leveraging for passive income with their newly discovered strategy? Yes?

Friday, 22 April 2011

Bear or Black Swan? The most fearful one.

Just For Laugh ...

I don't fear the Bear as it doesn't really pop up suddenly. There will be always adequate sign of the Bear is coming; but most of the time, I may just brush it off until the Bear has grown so big then only I become so fearful.

But, Black Swan is different. I am very fearful of  Black Swan at all time as there is no way to know when it will pop up.

Playing The Game of Leverage (2)

Read? Playing The Game of Leverage

"When the mind becomes TOO Greedy; it becomes LESS Savvy." - Createwealth8888

Investor and Banker. Who is smart? Who is stupid?

Let the story begins .....

An investor has saved more then $50K in a bank. When he saved his money in the bank he is actually lending the money to the bank. The bank agreed to pay him 1% interest rate per annum for borrowing his money.

One day, the investor discovered from X  this wonderful strategy of Leverage for Passive Income - the idea of "borrowing at a cheap interest rate and using the money to buy a stable financial instrument that is paying a higher interest rate, thereby earning the difference between the two."

The investor decided to start small with $10K with his newly discovered wonder of making passive income.

He borrowed $10K from the bank. The bank agreed to lend him $10K at 2% interest charge per annum. He then used the borrowed $10K to invest in DBS 6% NCPS to receive 6% dividends per annum.

After one year, he paid back the bank 2% interest charge and pocket the difference of 4%.

Th investor said to himself: "Wow. Passive income leh. I am so smart, right? Why I didn't think of it sooner." Shit!

Really ah?

Now, this is what actually happened when you have SPARE or SURPLUS money that can be used for investing; but you choose to keep in the bank as saving to earn low interest rate for whatever reasons.

1. He lent $50K to the bank. The bank paid him at 1% interest rate per annum for borrowing $50K from him.

2. He borrowed $10K from the bank to invest in DBS 6% NCPS. The bank charge him at 2% per annum for the borrowing.

3.  He received 6% Returns and paid back 2% to his bank and pocket the difference of 4%.

All this while, the bank is watching him carefully and hoping that he forgets to pay back his loan rate on time and slaps him at 24% charge per annum.

In summary, he lent $50K of his money to the bank at 1%, borrowed back his OWN money $10K at 2% and invested back at 6% and pocket the difference of 4%.

Borrowing back your own money to invest and pocket the difference!!!!!

Think carefully of the moral of the story and tells me your answer and WHY?

Investor and Banker. Who is smart? Who is stupid?

This wonderful strategy works fine if you are prepared to stay 100% invested and then borrow more to make even more.


When a man becomes too Greedy, his mind becomes less savvy. A Greedy man will not know his limit and he will also not believe that Black Swan can pay him a visit.

Thursday, 21 April 2011

Olam offers to buy rest of NZ Farming at NZ 70 cts/shr

By FELDA CHAY


Olam International, which owns 77.98 per cent of NZ Farming Systems Uruguay (NZFSU), is offering to buy the rest of the shares it does not own at NZ$0.70 (56 US cents) each.

The offer price is the same price it offered when it launched a takeover bid for the dairy farming company last year.

The commodities supplier's offer means that it will be shelling out NZ$37.6 million for the 22.02 per cent of NZFSU shares that it does not own.

The offer, which is unconditional, reprepresents a 25 per cent premium over NZFSU's 3-month average trading price of NZ$0.56.

Said Olam in a statement: 'The offer gives shareholders another opportunity to exit at the same price offered in Olam's 2010 takeover offer, despite the increase in capital requirements and changes to the business outlook for NZFSU compared with the earlier NZFSU board's forecasts at the time of the previous offer.'

Shareholders can choose to accept the offer from May 6 onwards. The offer closes at 5pm on June 7. Olam will be despatching its offer document within the next 14-30 days.

Last year, Olam said that it wants to take over the reins of NZFSU to change its business models, which it said were 'based on what we consider incorrect assumptions'. The offer values NZFSU at NZ$171 million.

STI

Add caption
Straits Times3,194.73+28.93+0.91%

Biosensors - Sold @ $1.33 at ROC 28.1%

This counter has been stuck so long since Jan 2008 for 1186 days hor.

Patience, stubborn, greedy or stupid?

Stuffing more feathers into a potential Multi-Bagger Pillow Stock. Cheers!

Round 3 ROC 28.1%, 1186 days, B $1.03 S $1.33

Round 2: ROC 22.1%, 1022 days, B $0.98 S $1.21
Round 1: ROC 1.1%, 1 day, B $0.830 S $0.845

Wednesday, 20 April 2011

Biosensors

Don't follow the herd

Start by being intellectually honest and transparent.


By JAMES CHENG

I RECENTLY had dinner with three portfolio manager friends whom I have known since I started my career. Collectively with over 100 years of investment experience in Asia, what had we learnt? We debated the following ideas: first, growth is over-priced because most investors look for growth; second, easy money encourages undisciplined investment; and third, when markets turn bearish, investors look for safety and make defensive stocks over-priced. In essence, what we have learnt is centuries-old wisdom - be contrarian and don't follow the herd.

Buy sheep, sell deer: Buying cheap and selling dear is easier said than done - in a deep crisis, investors always expect the low to get lower

As Barton Biggs, founder of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, puts it: 'buy sheep, sell deer' (buy cheap, sell dear), but it's easier said than done. Experience tells us that in a deep crisis, we always expect the low to get lower. In the dark days of February 2009, we noted that the price to book value for Asian corporates was at an all-time low, but everyone made compelling arguments that markets would go even lower.

Was that greed or fear? I argued to get invested because risk had become asymmetric - in other words, the upside potential was much larger than the downside risk given market psychology (drawing on my experience during the unprecedented sell-off in Hong Kong during the Asian Financial Crisis). After you overcome the psychological barrier to buy, beware that you may end up with a portfolio of fully priced safe stocks that will lead to under-performance. Such is the complex behavioural biases that investors have to deal with everyday.

2008 was the fifth major crisis I had experienced close-up in my career: the others being June 4, 1989; the 1994 Tequila Crisis; the Asian Financial Crisis; and 2000's Tech Bubble.

My first lesson in contrarian investing happened in June of 1989. Our chairman, a Wall Street legend, told us to 'buy Hong Kong'. Then I had the audacity to say, 'I don't think this is a good idea.' Fortunately for clients, I was not the one who mattered (the Hang Seng has appreciated 934 per cent from June 30, 1989 to March 31, 2011). In the process, I learnt a Chinese proverb - newborn babies have no fear of tigers. (In a secular bull market, hire young managers and let them loose!) My reaction to crises also matured over time, but it took a lot of discipline and painful reflection.

But how do you define a contrarian position? Technology has enabled instantaneous information flow and market reaction, making it extremely difficult to tell how the market is actually positioned. Financial innovations also made possible faster and deeper reaction to events. Price signals may be inadequate.

The Pavlovian response that worked well 25 years ago may be a ticket to trouble. Having a longer investment horizon is also contrarian today as the market has transformed from one dominated by long-term investors to one where hedge funds, proprietary trading and high frequency trading dominates.

Over time, I have come to realise that modifying mean reversion with a philosophical understanding of the Taoist saying that 'all things taken to the extreme, change form' allows one to handle the dynamic and uncertain nature of developing markets and economies better.

We started turning positive on the Indonesian market in early 2007 and carried the position over a multi-year period. A simplistic use of mean reversion would have led us to exit too early as the market started to move above its long-term averages driven by structural changes. The volatility we sat through was massive.

To cope, we mentally prepared ourselves by developing a thesis for the structural change which we constantly reviewed, tested and updated, while maintaining the flexibility to discard it if we found a flaw. One has to be prepared to spend time developing deep knowledge and careful analysis to manage risk. It is not only about what you can win, but also understanding what you can afford to lose.

In this game of managing human behaviour, the one replicable skill set is discipline. We can start by being intellectually honest and transparent with our decisions. The explosion in the availability and speed of information and limitless computing power has created a delusion of control and a dangerous sense of complacency.

The ego is our biggest enemy. However, a true ego is one that learns from mistakes; understands that they don't have all the answers; always feels the need to constantly regenerate themselves; and understands the need to be constantly at risk in the marketplace. I rely on the 'neural network', a team of portfolio managers who work to ensure intellectual honesty through rigorous debates. However, one has to ensure diversity to avoid groupthink and understand that investing is a lonely pursuit.

How is all this relevant to the market today? A senior UK politician recently remarked: 'There is no recognition in the US and Europe of the sheer change in Asia and the sheer scale of competitiveness emerging.' The semantic debate on decoupling misses the point. The world is getting more 'global' with non-G-7 countries now constituting a meaningful portion of global gross domestic product (GDP) and at the margin, the main driver of global growth.

Going global

Thirty years ago, global really referred to the G-7 and the rest was irrelevant. The composition of the 'global average' has fundamentally changed, something not obvious if we just focus on the 'mean'. That is why in the past when the US/EU sneezed, we caught a cold; but today, they can catch pneumonia and we will still only go down with a cold.

Today, Asia-Pacific ex-Japan market capitalisation is larger than Europe, compared to 35 per cent of Europe's market capitalisation in 2000. What makes this so hard to believe is the lack of theories in understanding why a world that for the past 200 years has less than 20 per cent of its population controlling more than 80 per cent of global GDP is now changing for good.

Part of the reason lies in Lin Yifu's theory of the advantage of backwardness, with information technology enabling rapid dissemination of knowledge and unprecedented economies of scale. In 1800, the midst of the Industrial Revolution, the UK had a population of 10 million and the US five million. Today, China is industrialising with 1,300 million people. Unprecedented economy of scale is a thesis that we are developing to understand the changes taking place.

How else can you explain the rapid price drop in goods such as mobile telephony as China entered the space? Many choose to believe the demographic explanation to everything - that China grew because it had a large population. If this is true, China with more than 300 million people in 1800 would have been the largest economy in the world for the past 200 years. The irony is that the best performing economies for the past 200 years are actually European countries with small population bases.

This powerful secular shift is underpinned by a shift in the global balance of science, with research powerhouses now emerging in the developing world. Today, South Korea has the highest per dollar capita R&D spend globally. For the first time since World War II, developing economies are also producing capital equipment previously dominated by Western companies and at a much lower price. Chinese mobile telecom equipment suppliers such as Huawei and ZTE are supplying equipment at US$50 per subscriber capital expenditure and sub-US$50 handsets, empowering five billion emerging market consumers. This secular shift in favour of developing economies will continue for the foreseeable future.

Are you prepared to bet that this powerful trend will continue and how do you overcome all the noise that will try to convince you that historically, this is not possible?

The writer is managing director and senior portfolio manager, Morgan Stanley Investment Management (MSIM)

Next Stage: Protecting Profits and Beating Oct 2007 Bull Peak


As of today closing, Portfolio Value has crossed over the previous peak value and set a new high. In the next stage, I should be focusing more on protecting profits and beating the previous Oct 2007 Bull Peak.

CapitaLand rids interest in TCL for S$97.1m

By ANGELA TAN


CapitaLand Limited said on Wednesday that it has sold its entire 40 per cent stake in its joint venture company, TCC Capital Land Limited (TCL), to its joint venture partner TCC Land Co Ltd (TCC), for THB2,340.8 million (about S$97.1 million).

The sale is part of the group's ongoing strategy to enhance capital productivity, the Singapore property group said.

TCL is a company incorporated in Thailand and is principally engaged in the development of residential properties in Bangkok, Thailand.

After the sale, TCL has ceased to be an associated company of CapitaLand.

Keppel says Q1 net profit up 8%, rig orders rebound

Keppel Corp, the world's largest rig-builder, reported on Wednesday a better-than-expected 7.8 per cent rise in its quarterly net profit, helped by its infrastructure business while orders for oil rigs rebounded.
Keppel, in which Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings has around 20 per cent stake, recorded a net profit of S$346.2 million (US$278.3 million) in the quarter ended March, up from a revised S$321.3 million. The net profit was above an average forecast of S$302 million from analysts.

The conglomerate, whose interest span from offshore and marine engineering, to property and infrastructure said it secured S$4.5 billion worth of offshore and marine new orders in the first quarter, more than the total orders secured in 2010.

Keppel and rival Sembcorp Marine, the world's two top rig builders, have seen a recovery in new orders from energy companies who are accelerating oil search due to high oil prices. The rebound comes after new orders slowed in the last two years, hurt by a global recession in 2009.

Keppel's shares have risen by more than 12 per cent since the start of the year, relatively inline with the 10 per cent increase in shares of Sembcorp Marine, but both outperformed the 0.8 per cent fall in the broader Singapore index. -- REUTERS

Tuesday, 19 April 2011

STI


Straits Times3,125.37-19.01-0.60%

CCT, CapitaLand to jointly develop Market Street Car Park

SINGAPORE : CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) and its parent company CapitaLand plan to jointly develop Market Street Car Park into a office tower.


The project cost is estimated to be about S$1.4 billion.

In a joint statement, both companies said that based on this figure, the development is considered financially viable.

The stabilised yield from the completed development is expected to exceed 6 per cent per annum.

CCT will have a 40 per cent stake in the development.

This is in accordance with a regulation preventing real estate investment trusts from undertaking projects that exceed 10 per cent of their asset sizes.

The new tower will be 245 metres high, with an estimated gross floor area of 887,000 square feet.

It is expected to be completed by the end of 2014.

The property has a land lease of 62 years.

- CNA /ls

CapitaLand's Ascott says to buy Frankfurt property for 28 mln euros

SINGAPORE, April 19 (Reuters) - Singapore real estate company CapitaLand said on Tuesday its serviced residence arm, the Ascott Limited, will acquire a property in Frankfurt for 28 million euros ($40.4 million).


The new 165-unit Citadines Messe Frankfurt, which is slated to open in 2014, will increase Ascott's Europe portfolio to over 5,300 apartment units in 48 properties across 22 cities.

"Europe is a key market for Ascott in its international  expansion. With this acquisition, we are on track to achieve 7,000 apartment units in Europe by 2015," said Ascott's CEO

Monday, 18 April 2011

Hyflux 6% Perference shares (2)

Just For Thinking ....

Read? hyflux preference shares

This crazy "Googling" of Hyflux 6% Perference shares has hit many bloggers to set new record high has confirmed my earlier post on Financially literate investors?

For financially literate investors, it is not difficult to get 6% Compounded returns in the stock market without getting their investing capital stuck in the market for the next 7 years.

It has been 3.5+ years since the last Bull in Oct 2007. We are getting nearer to the next Big Bear and not further from it. If you can wait patiently for it; you may reap much bigger rewards than the total of 42% ROC in Hyflux 6% CPS in 2018

Playing The Game of Leverage

Read? Understanding Debt, Risk and Leverage

There are few ways to play the Game of Leverage

1. Too Heavy (Too much capital upfront)

To invest in property, most retail investors are expected to leverage heavily i.e. they don't have much of a choice but to play the Game of Leverage in a big way.

2. Too Light (Little capital)

For small retail investors with little capital e.g. $2K; they like to own DBS stock but they can't afford to buy DBS at $14.X. They may have to use CFD to play the Game of Leverage to gain indirect exposure to DBS stock.

3. Overweight (The More The Merrier)

In the current low saving rate of less than 1%; it will be stupid to borrow at 2% to invest in relatively safe fixed income financial instrument getting 5-6% returns while keeping your surplus cash in the Bank earning at 1% saving rate. Right?

You should be financially wise enough to dump all your surplus cash in and borrow more to play the Game of Leverage.

Using Leverage is definitely financially Rewarding. No doubt about it.

In playing the Game of Leverages; you will be reaping nice and handsome financial returns there is no doubt about it; but there is one NAME that you might have to fear.

His name is darker than the Dark Lord.

His name is Black Swan. When he visits you; you better pray to your Good Lord that you will be alright after that.

CapitaLand's Ascott wins deal to manage serviced residence in Macau

SINGAPORE, April 18 (Reuters) - Southeast Asia's largest property developer CapitaLand said on Monday its serviced residence arm, the Ascott Limited, has won a contract to manage a brand of serviced apartments in Macau.


The serviced residence, which will be named Ascott Paragon Macau and will open in 2014, marks Ascott's first foray into Macau, it said in a statement.

"With the high rate of growth in China, we expect more expatriates and business travellers to Macau as more international companies," said Lim Ming Yan, Ascott's chief executive officer.

Ascott has about 6,600 apartment units in 36 properties across 16 cities

Keppel & Seafox Group’s MPSEP SEAFOX 5 secures first job in offshore wind

The KFELS MPSEP vessel will be deployed for foundation works at DanTysk in the German Sector of the North Sea, starting 4Q2012.

Singapore, 18 April 2011 – Keppel FELS Limited (Keppel FELS) is pleased to announce that a contract from the joint-venture Aarsleff Bilfinger Berger (ABJV) Dan Tysk, worth in excess of EUR 35 million, has been secured for SEAFOX 5, the KFELS Multi-Purpose Self-Elevating Platform (MPSEP) wind turbine installation vessel owned and managed with the Seafox Group. The customer ABJV DanTysk has an option to extend the charter by an additional 90 days.

Keppel FELS is on track to complete the construction of SEAFOX 5 in the second half of 2012. When delivered, the vessel will be used for installing offshore wind foundations in the 288 megawatt (MW) DanTysk windfarm, developed by Europe’s leading energy company Vattenfall and Stadtwerke München, in the German sector of the North Sea.

A 75/25 joint venture (JV) company was formed between Keppel FELS and Seafox respectively, to build and own SEAFOX 5.

Mr Wong Kok Seng, Managing Director of Keppel FELS, said, “This new charter contract is a significant milestone in establishing Keppel’s footprint as a value-added solutions provider for the emerging offshore wind energy sector. I would like to thank our partner,

Seafox, whose rich operating expertise was instrumental in the winning of our first charter in the North Sea.

Our proprietary KFELS MPSEP vessel brings to bear Keppel’s experience in designing, engineering and building rigs for harsh environments, and will offer important advantages over the existing fleet of installation vessels, in terms of safety, and operational and cost efficiency. We are pleased that Keppel and Seafox have won the confidence of leading offshore wind farm contractors such as ABJV DanTysk with this new generation vessel.”

Keppel FELS’ proprietary concept was chosen by the Seafox Group in July 2010 as the basis for a new-generation, wind turbine installation vessel. Upon completion, SEAFOX 5 will be managed and operated by Workfox BV, the leading operator of multi-support service jackups in the Southern North Sea, and member of the Seafox Group.

Mr Keesjan Cordia, Managing Director of Seafox Contractors BV, said, “Developers and operators of offshore wind farms place high emphasis on the reliability of delivery and operations. As such, the collective strengths and track records of the Seafox-Keppel alliance, augmented by an outstanding vessel concept, have launched us forward in sealing the charter contract with ABJV DanTysk.

“SEAFOX 5’s ability to withstand harsh offshore environmental conditions all year round will be advantageous in this first charter where it is expected to work through winter in the North Sea. We look forward to meet ABJV DanTysk’s expectations with the delivery of safe and uninterrupted operations as we fortify SEAFOX 5’s track record.”

The KFELS MPSEP, designed by Keppel’s R&D arm, Offshore Technology Development, features an offshore pedestal crane with a 1,200-tonne lifting capacity, and a spacious deck in excess of 3700m2 with a variable load of 7000 MT.

“The SEAFOX 5 will prove to the industry that this vessel can be well utilised in both foundation and turbine installation works. We are more than pleased to get started on the DanTysk foundation works in cooperation with ABJV”, Mr Cordia added.

In addition, to being well-suited for servicing offshore wind farms, SEAFOX 5 also meets all the stringent operating regulations of the offshore oil & gas industry and can support a wide range of related activities such as accommodation, well intervention, maintenance, construction and decommissioning.

The above charter contract is not expected to have material impact on the net tangible assets or earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited for the current financial year.

Olam - Classic example of Long Hammer on 23 Feb 11

KY: "Hopefully when i trade again, I will be profitable rather the being the "Stuck Long Term investor" haha...  I'm studying your blog."

KY attended a  free preview. Createwealth8888  has mentioned many times liao that he has attended most of the free previews and usually could go home with one or two ideas if you are still in the learning stage.

What KY has learned from the speaker: "The speaker  stressed to look out for hammer in the downtrend and shooting star in an uptrend for reversal."

KY: "I will keep a lookout for the hammer and shooting star to validate the methodology."

Createwealth8888:

Since KY is so hardworking in studying and Easter is coming, I gave him an early Easter Egg lor. LOL!

But, Uncle8888 prefered a long hammer with high volume and it will be better if it follows after the previous Long Black candle. More ferocious bulls might seen the great opportunity presented and pushed up its price and forcing more bears to cover their shorts. Click the chart bigger and read the comments.

Olam on 23 Feb 11 presented a classic example what Uncle8888 likes to see it of a Hammer in the downtrend - a key reversal.

Long Hammer with high volume with preceding day of Long Black candle.


Sunday, 17 April 2011

Tianjin Eco-city signs 6 new investment deals

The signing of the joint venture agreement between Keppel Integrated Engineering Limited and Tianjin Eco-City Investment and Development Co. Ltd. (Credit: Keppel Group)

TIANJIN: Tianjin Eco-city has signed six new investment deals and secured strategic partnerships, bringing in total new investments amounting to about 500 million yuan.

Singapore Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong witnessed the signing ceremony in Tianjin on Sunday.

Companies involved in the signing include General Motors, Keppel Integrated Engineering, LHT Holdings, Panasonic, Philips, and Sky Communication.

The new investments are said to be able to bring additional job opportunities and economic vibrancy to the Eco-city.

As strategic partners, Philips, General Motors, and Panasonic will help to shape the implementation of eco-technology.

Senior Minister Goh also officiated at the groundbreaking ceremony of Keppel's Seasons City.

To be developed in phases, the first phase includes an office development and retail premises.

Describing the Eco-city's construction as amazing, Mr Goh said that in a few years' time, emphasis should be placed on the city's soft management.

He said: "As for going forward, the whole idea of the Eco-city is that it should be replicable and scalable, which means that what we are doing over here can be done in other parts of China, so this project should not be seen in isolation.

"It should be holding lessons for other cities which want to develop along what you call ecological lines. So that is the feature we are emphasising for the Eco-city."

Other Singapore features to be included in the Eco-city include public housing.

Mr Goh said: "You have to look at the income of the buyers, and when they buy, they cannot sell to anybody else after that and make a huge profit. They have to sell to people who are eligible to buy public housing. So in that sense, that is the feature of Singapore public housing."

Apart from Singapore, Mr Goh said the Eco-city can also borrow from the experiences of China's coastal cities, such as those located along the Pearl River Delta.

Cities such as Shenzhen and Zhuhai are now suffering from outdated, labour-intensive and low-technology industries.

And this is something that the Eco-city should be mindful of when it comes to planning for its long term development.

Mr Goh also made it clear that the Eco-city should set the standard for others to follow, and that more pro-green business incentives will soon be introduced.

- CNA/ac/ms

Punggol Promenade is a 5-kilometre long public waterfront promenade


Explore more on Punggol Promenade?

This is a nice place to ride your bicycle or jog. I will be doing more of my regular jog or ride along this route starting from Punggol Park.

Hyflux Preference Shares

Just For Laugh ...

Read? Hyflux preference shares Part 3

Wah. Don't tell me Hyflux 6% Preference shares are hitting Singapore like the last MacDonald's Hello Kitty Craze. Die die must HAVE.

Wah 6% per annum hor and  more than double the rate of CPF OA of 2.5%. Hoot liao!

How come Createwealth8888 no hoot?

Let me share with you what I think ...

Hyflux Mgmt is telling you this:

  1. Give us your money and don't worry. We will pay you 6% per annum.
  2. Don't worry if you don't get paid this year. We will pay you next year and plus what we owe you last year. Just don't worry too much. We will pay you. Promise hor!
  3. We say so many time liao. Don't worry. We will finally pay you all we owe you on 2018 and also to return you your capital. Just don't worry too much, everything will be alright on 2018. If not, we will pay you even higher at 8% per annum. You feel so shiok! right? Just worry too much. Everything will be alright!
I am vested in Hyflux. Thank you for your support if you are subscribing for Hyflux 6% Perference shares.


Can My Stupid Charting Works? It is 3M's that really matters

KY asked: "Erm Uncle, how do you use the chart to determine your entry, exit and price target if any? There were quite a number of indicators in your chart, do you actually use them? If so how?"

Read? Gohsip's comment

Two Types of Ancient Chinese Sword fighting Master Swordmen

These types of ancient Chinese sword fighting movies were popular during Createwealth8888 younger days and he realized that there were two types of ancient sword fighting Master Swordmen.

Type One, they have very powerful weapons and superior skills to defeat all other swordmen to become Master Swordmen.

Type Two, they use simple weapons with their superior skills and greater wisdom to defeat others to become Master Swordmen.

The moral of the story: You don't always need to have the most powerful weapons to become Master Swordman.

"In Active Investing, there is no holy grail and stop looking for one. You should seriously and diligently  track and measure your portfolio performance against your higher investing goals. Keep reviewing and revising your 3M's until your portfolio performance starts moving towards your investing goals; probably you may have your 3M's correctly in place." - Createwealth8888

Chart A: To confuse people charting by Createwealth8888. This chart looks a bit professional and more technical. Do you agree?


Chart B: This is the real chart seen in the mind of Createwealth8888. It looks really STUPID right? You agree?
 

Someone already said that Chart A is "dumb" without any commentary.
But, I thought: "A picture is worth a thousand words."
This is an Art of Appreciation and only few can see; appreciate it and
then make money out of it.

Question: Should I continue to confuse people with Chart A? Any suggestion?

3M's that really matters


Now, back to the moral of the story of Master Swordmen.

Powerful Weapons: You are true discipline who was handed the powerful weapon by the Grand Master e.g. Dr. X, S4C, ChartMake200%Profit,W4Stop, an etc. all the Grand Masters of Powerful Weapons.

You are the TRUE DISCIPLINE following the powerful Method religiously. You can afford to use simple Money and Mind like cut losses at 2%, 6% or 8% etc and having trailing stop according to the rules set by the Grand Masters. What you need to do it is to strictly obey the rules of the systems e.g. when you see this and you do this. You are Type One Master Swordman

Simple Weapons: You are Type Two Master Swordman when you don't have any superior weapon passed down from the Grand Master. You have to beat all other swordmen by having Stronger Mind and Superior Money. It is simply Money and Mind over Method.

Okay, Choose your weapon and fight in the stock market. LOL!

Saturday, 16 April 2011

Cambridge Industrial Trust: Going for excess rights.

Just For Laugh ...

Is CIT following the Govt in distributing the excess rights like the Growth Dividend?

The More you have the Less you get. The Less you have the More you get.

I only got excess to prevent odd lots nia. Actually, not complaining hor!

Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (12)

Read? Investing Made Simple by Uncle8888 (11)

Clearly Know What You Really WANT or  NEED; you may be financially better off!

WANT or NEED?

Classic example of WANT and NEED is a Car.

Most people will WANT car. Right? But how many people really NEED car?

A salesperson who travels around the island doing sales will definitely NEED a car to be productive and efficient.

Does a desk-bound office worker in CBD area traveling only from his home to office and back really NEED a car?

For the same desk-bound office workers without car; they may have more saving and may have more money for investment. If they manage to do well in their investment, they will be financially better off in the long run.

Investing in Stock Market

Do retail investors clearly know what they really NEED or WANT in the stock market?

Uncle8888 have no doubt that it is quite easy to understand the difference between WANT and NEED using the example of a Car.

But, to really understand the NEED and WANT in Investing, Uncle8888 don't think it is that easy. Firstly, you may need to open up your mind to seriously think it through. Secondly, be willing to change your mind-set if you don't think Uncle8888 is senile and talking nonsense. LOL!

Stock Dividends

Uncle8888 believe that most retail investors WANT Stock Dividends and there is no doubt about it.

How many retail investors clearly know that they NEED stock dividends as INCOME or they WANT stock dividends as CASH FLOW?

Uncle8888 believe that if retail investors clearly understand and know the difference between WANT and NEED; they may get higher TSR (Total Shareholder Returns) in the long run by revising or changing their investing strategies. Investing is still a Game of Strategies. The ones with better strategies are more likely to win more.

Who will need stock dividends as INCOME?

Giving two examples here:

1. For retirees having only portfolio of stocks as assets during their retirement will clearly NEED steady and regular streams of stock dividends as INCOME to meet their living expenses.

2. For fund Managers, they may NEED stock dividends as part of their overall cash flow management strategies to take care of expenses, staff salaries, redemption and other cash outflow.


Do some retail investors really NEED stock dividends as INCOME?

When you are employees or self-employed having good income and can save more than enough money every month. You will have enough spare money to invest in the stock market. Do you really need stock dividends as income?

You may have mistaken WANT from NEED. You may actually WANT stock dividends as cash flow and not as income.

If it is not for income, why do you need to chase after stocks such REITs and Biz Trusts as these financial instruments are primarily developed by the Market for the purpose of providing regular streams of stock dividends as income?

Focusing on stock dividends as cash flow will require different investing strategy. The important part of this strategy is deep understanding of this Golden Formula in the Stock Market!.

If you still don't understand it. We may need to talk it further over an Executive Lunch.

Friday, 15 April 2011

Biosensors Weekly


Is the expectation of China Approval priced in?


DBS on track to opening 50 outlets in China, to double workforce there

By ANGELA TAN


DBS Bank said on Friday that it is on track for 50 outlets in China by 2013, and plans to open at least eight new branches and sub-branches in the mainland by 2011.

The bank also said it plans to double its current workforce of over 1,000 employees in China, with hires primarily in the areas of consumer and institutional banking.

The new outlets will be established mainly in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou.

In the first four months of 2011, three DBS China outlets were opened in Hangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing, bringing DBS' network in China to nine branches and 10 sub-branches.

In addition to expanding its branch network, as well as growing its consumer banking and institutional banking customer base, DBS China will be also deepening relationships through increased cross-sell of Treasury & Markets and Global Transaction Services products.

Jasper intends to acquire 2-4 jack-up rigs

  SINGAPORE - Singapore oil and gas services firm Jasper Investments said it intends to acquire 2-4 more jack-up rigs in the next 2-3 years and hopes to return to profitability when its drillship starts work on a well in West Africa in October.
Jasper recently ordered two jack-up rigs from Keppel Corp , the world's largest oil rig builder, at around US$180 million each. The first rig is scheduled for delivery in November 2012, while the second one in May 2013.

The firm currently has a drillship Jasper Explorer and Neptune Finder, a semi-submersible hull pending upgrade, in its portfolio.

'We think that in order to achieve economies of scale and to be able to present ourselves as a serious player in the market, we need more rigs,' Jasper executive director Geoffrey Yeoh told Reuters in an interview.

'Hence the desire to add more jack-ups to our fleet, and this could be another 2 to 4 jack-ups' he said, adding that the current market price of a jack-up rig is between US$180 million and US$200 million. -- REUTERS

CapitaLand buys 40% Surbana stake for S$360m

SINGAPORE - Southeast Asia's largest property developer CapitaLand Ltd said it has acquired a 40 per cent stake in Surbana Corporation, a private limited company wholly-owned by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings, for a cash consideration of S$360 million (US$288.8 million).
Capitaland, about 40 per cent owned by Temasek, said it appointed JPMorgan as the financial advisor to the acquisition of Surbana, a real estate consultant firm and developer with four township developments in Chinese cities. -- REUTERS

Thursday, 14 April 2011

Mind Flip (3)

Read? Uncle8888 did a Mind Flip

Next Mind Flip

When 2008 Bear hit on Jan 2008, I (CreateWealth8888) lost $76K on that month due to losses on contra trades.

From Feb 08 - Apr 08, I didn't lose but manage to make an average of $2.5K per month. 

On May 08, I made another $25K and that really made me believe that I was smarter than the Bear and regained my confidence of making an average of $10K per month. But, unfortunately the Bear came back and hit me even harder. I lost on Aug 08 ($68K), Sep 08 ($18K) and Oct 08 ($31K).

I have never experienced two consecutive months of big losses before. It was nightmare and sleepless nights in Oct 08.

What was really wrong with me? TA not powerful enough? Books read not enough? So many why???? I did serious soul-searching.

Suddenly, one night in Oct 08 I have a Mind Flip and the next day I closed all my positions and stopped Contra Trading. The rest was history. I have survived the Great Bear of 2008! Lucky for me, right?

K-GREEN TRUST 1Q FY2011 RESULTS HIGHLIGHTS

1. The profit after tax achieved for the first quarter of 2011 was $3.5 million, 5.4% higher than projection.

2. Earnings per unit (EPU) for the first quarter of 2011 was 0.56 cents.

3. Net asset value per unit as at 31 March 2011 was $1.12.

4. Free cash flow for the quarter was $9.5 million.

S'pore Q1 GDP up 8.5%

SINGAPORE - The Singapore economy continued to grow at a healthy pace in the first quarter of 2011, expanding by 8.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis, compared to 12.0 per cent in the previous quarter.

Wednesday, 13 April 2011

3 bananas in the Morning and 4 in the Afternoon (3)

Read? 3 bananas in the Morning and 4 in the Afternoon (2)

Why I am not interested in any perpetual preference shares e.g. like the latest Hyflux 6% Perpetual Class A Preference shares because I fully understood the moral of this story. 

Why lock your silver bullets for years in the same stock market with these perpetual shares?

You may be getting little or nothing in the Morning; and likely the same stock market is going to give you much more if you can wait patiently till the Evening.

Have re-read and understood the moral of the story?

Biosensors


The last piece of price moving news will be obtaining Approval in China.

Sembcorp to explore building marine city, water plants in China

SINGAPORE - Singapore's Sembcorp Industries, a rig-building and engineering conglomerate, said on Wednesday it is considering building water treatment plants as well as a large commercial, residential and industrial zone in eastern China.

One of its units, Sembcorp Utilities, has signed a letter of intent with China's Jinan Quancheng Water to explore the formation of a joint venture to build, own and operate water treatment plants in the east of Jinan City, the capital of China's Shandong province.

Another unit, Sembcorp Industrial Parks, signed a memorandum of understanding to consider building a 638-hectare international marine city in Shandong that will have commercial and residential developments as well as industrial and logistic zones focused on marine-related industries. -- REUTERS

Golden Formula in the Stock Market!

Just For Laugh ...

Money in Your Pocket = Stock Dividends + Realized Gains

With money in your pocket, you are laughing to bank. Keep doing it in a big way, you are laughing to your financial independence to become Man or Woman of Leisure!

Tuesday, 12 April 2011

FPSO demand will double this decade

(SINGAPORE) Global demand for floating oil production and storage vessels is expected to more than double this decade as surging crude prices allow exploration to move deeper offshore, senior industry executives said yesterday.

With oil prices at 21/2 year highs above US$125, economic conditions are ripe for oil companies to use these vessels, at a cost of more than US$1 billion each, to dig deeper and further off the coasts of Brazil, Australia, West Africa and the North Sea.

At least 127 of the nearly 200 planned offshore oil projects in the next eight years will likely employ floating production storage ships to exploit crude and natural gas reserves, up sharply from the 92 currently under lease, said Stig Hoffmeyer, chief executive of Maersk FPSO.

'I have never been in an industry before where the future outlook is so bright,' Mr Hoffmeyer said at a floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) conference in Singapore.

'Taking oil and gas out of the ground onshore and in shallow waters is coming to an end, so we will be moving more and more to deeper water. I am confident that the industry will grow significantly in the coming 10, 20 and 30 years.'

That was good news for FPSO leader Dutch-listed SBM Offshore, along with rivals Modec in Japan and Norway's BW Offshore that together dominate the industry.

The three represent 44 per cent of the FPSO market and were expected to increase their share due to the recent demise of smaller rivals, high entry barriers for outsiders, and tight financing.

'In the wake of the financial crisis and significant drop in oil prices, many of the smaller and speculative players left the market,' Mr Hoffmeyer said.

'Today, the three largest contractors sit on almost half of the lease market, creating oligopolistic characteristics. And there is strong rationale for further consolidation.'

South America, West Africa and Asia-Pacific were expected to see the biggest demand for FPSOs since they do not have the seabed pipelines to transport oil and gas to shore, said Robin Allan, Asia director for Britain's Premier Oil.

A third, or more than 60 FPSOs, were currently being used or earmarked for projects in Asia-Pacific, he added.

Despite having an extensive seabed pipeline network, the United States last month gave final approval for Petrobras to use the first ever deepwater floating production storage facility in the Gulf of Mexico.

Analysts, however, do not see a boom in demand for the long-term in North America. -- Reuters

Keppel bags offshore & marine jobs worth S$240 million from global customers

Singapore, 12 April 2011 – Keppel Offshore & Marine Ltd (Keppel O&M), through its wholly-owned subsidiaries in Singapore, has clinched new contracts totaling S$240 million from international customers.

These entail building a new multi-purpose dive support construction vessel for SBM Offshore as well as modifying and upgrading a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel for Petrofac.

Mr Nelson Yeo, Managing Director (Marine) of Keppel O&M, said, “These new contracts reflect the confidence of our customers in the capabilities of the Keppel O&M group. We are proud of the solid partnerships built with faithful customers who turn to our yards worldwide for their fleet expansion and upgrading needs.

“Looking ahead, I am confident that we will continue to strengthen the mutual trust and partnership with SBM Offshore and Petrofac with Keppel’s commitment to quality and reliability.”

Keppel Singmarine will build for SBM Offshore a prototype multi-purpose dive support construction vessel (DSCV) scheduled for delivery in 2Q 2013. This cutting-edge vessel combines capabilities of diving support, subsea construction and anchor handling, and features a DP III (Dynamically Positioned) system.

The DSCV will be equipped with a fully integrated 12-men saturation diving system that enables divers to work safely up to a depth of 300m, and a 250-tonne crane to support subsea oilfield development. It will also feature a 200-tonne double drum winch, four chain lockers and a stern roller for anchor handling functions.

Since 2000, sister company Keppel Shipyard has completed 13 FPSO and FSO projects for SBM Offshore with another four FPSO conversion projects currently underway.

Keppel Shipyard has also secured a fast-track project for the upgrading of a FPSO vessel from Petrofac International (UAE) LLC, a subsidiary of Petrofac. The upgrading of the ex- FPSO East Fortune includes refurbishment and life extension works, engineering, fabricating, installing and integrating new topside process modules, upgrading of spread mooring and auxiliary support systems.
 
Work has commenced in 1Q 2011. Designated for an oil and gas field offshore Peninsular Malaysia, this FPSO facility will be able to handle both oil and gas production.

The above contracts are not expected to have material impact on the net tangible assets and earnings per share of Keppel Corporation Limited for the current financial year
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