Your Valentine's Roses



Don't worry! It won't burnt a hole in your pocket. We will help you with your Valentine's Roses at your budget and still wow her heart!


Welcome to Ministry of Wealth and Gifts for your loved ones!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down


Get your Hampers, Hand Bouquets, Baby Showers here!


Simply with no high rental overheads, we pass the cost saving back to you!

We offer a varied selection of Corsages, Boutonniere, Gift of Flowers, Hampers, Hand Bouquets, Baby Showers

F1 C1 BH 1 H1

Click here and then scroll down to view more hampers ...

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When you have made more and more money from the stock market, please remember to send beautiful gifts to your beloved ones.


Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Tuesday, 31 August 2010

S'pore banks are top three safest banks in Asia: Global Finance magazine

SINGAPORE : Singapore banks are the top three safest banks in Asia, according to the Global Finance magazine in its October 2010 issue.


DBS Bank clinched the top spot for the second year. OCBC took the second while UOB ranked third.

Globally, DBS Bank was ranked the 23rd safest bank, up one notch from 24th place last year.

OCBC was 31st while UOB was 32nd.

Global Finance said the banks were selected through a comparison of their long-term credit ratings and total assets of the 500 largest banks around the world.

It used ratings from Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch.

Global Finance publisher Joseph D Giarraputo said banks that have strengthened their liquidity positions and the quality and quantity of their capital are recognised in these rankings.

He added that more than ever, customers around the world are viewing long-term creditworthiness as the key feature of the banks with which they do business.

This is on the back of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe and renewed concerns about the global economic outlook, which once again put the spotlight on bank safety. - CNA/ms

STI - Surprising no panic!

Straits Times 2,950.33 -6.73 -0.23%

SINGAPORE : Stocks in Singapore ended 0.23 per cent lower on Tuesday, following overnight losses on Wall Street.


The Straits Times Index fell 6.73 points to close at 2,950.33.

Volume was 1.67 billion shares.

Losers led gainers 329 to 149.

City Developments declined 4.5 per cent to S$10.94, CapitaLand was down 1.8 per cent at S$3.91, CapitaMall Trust gained 1.6 per cent to S$1.94 while CapitaMalls Asia was up 1.0 per cent at S$2.10.

Olam International fell 1.84 per cent to S$2.67, Wilmar International was flat at S$6.26, while Golden Agri-Resources rose 0.9 per cent to S$0.56.

United Overseas Bank shed 0.85 per cent to S$18.72. - CNA/ms

Another Debate On Property Or Stocks Investing - Part 6

Read older post on? Another Debate On Property Or Stocks Investing - Part 5

Read older post on? Investing in Property is far safer than stocks?

"It is much harder to find multi-baggers in properties as the Government is always watching closely and likely to introduce cooling measures to clamp down property prices from rising too fast." - Createwealth8888


Govt introduces new measures to cool S'pore property market


By Joanne Chan
Posted: 30 August 2010 0824 hrs

SINGAPORE: The government on Monday introduced more measures to cool the buoyant property market.

These include raising the holding period for which a home seller must pay a stamp duty and reducing the maximum bank loan amount for existing home owners who want to buy another property.

The measures, which take immediate effect, came as a strong economy and low borrowing rates have continued to push property prices up, sparking concerns of a property bubble.

Private property prices shot up by some 11 per cent in the first half of this year and have now exceeded the previous peak in 1996.

National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said prices are "on the high side".

He said: "If the current momentum in the market continues, what will likely happen is that a property bubble will form. And when the bubble burst, and not if, but when the bubble burst, there will be severe implications for individuals, as well as for the economy on the whole."

So the government has moved to curb speculation and also encourage financial prudence among buyers.

The holding period for the seller's stamp duty has been increased from one to three years to discourage home owners from flipping. The seller's stamp duty was first introduced in February this year.

Another measure will impact those who have one or more outstanding housing loan. Home buyers who already have at least one mortgage will have to pay more cash upfront when buying their next property.

The minimum cash payment has been doubled from five per cent to 10 per cent of the home's valuation, while the maximum bank loan amount has been reduced from 80 to 70 per cent.

The government said the objective of the measures is "to ensure a stable and sustainable property market where prices move in line with economic fundamentals".

The Housing and Development Board (HDB) has also introduced anti-speculative measures to its resale market. These include increasing the minimum occupation period for non-subsidised flats to 5 years.

Mr Mah stressed that HDB flats are meant for long-term occupation, and not for speculation. Home owners can no longer own both private property and an HDB flat at the same time during the minimum occupation period.

So those who buy a non-subsidised HDB flat must sell off their private property within six months. Similarly, home owners of non-subsidised HDB flats will not be allowed to own private property before the minimum occupation period is up.

These changes will only apply to those submitting flat applications from August 30 and will not be applied retrospectively.

Mr Mah also gave the assurance that there will be more help for first-time home buyers.

The HDB will raise the supply of flats. Up to 22,000 new Build-To-Order (BTO) flats will be made available next year.

Together with the 16,000 BTO flats released this year, HDB will be offering more new flats over the two years than all the flats in Toa Payoh town today.

In addition, the waiting time for a BTO flat will be reduced by six months to 2-1/2 years.

To help the sandwiched class, those earning between S$8,000 and S$10,000 will now be eligible for flats under the Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS).

HDB will also release land for 4,000 DBSS flats and 4,000 Executive Condominiums next year.

It said new sites for DBSS projects in Bedok, Hougang and Jurong will be put up for tender later this year. Sites in Punggol, Pasir Ris, Bukit Panjang and Tampines will also be released for the development of executive condominiums

DOW - Testing 10,000 again!



By: Abby Schultz, JeeYeon Park


Stocks finished sharply lower Monday amid light volume as confidence about the economy weakened and investors remained cautious ahead of several key reports coming up this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 140.92 points, or 1.39 percent, to close at 10,009.73.

The S&P 500 fell 1.47 percent while the Nasdaq slipped 1.56 percent. The CBOE volatility index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, jumped more than 11 percent to close above 27.

All S&P large-cap sectors were lower, led by financials, consumer discretionary and industrials.

The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended last week with a rally after the Federal Reserve signaled it would take measures to support the recovery, if necessary. Still, the major indexes are on track to post a loss in August for the first time since 2005.





RELATED LINKS

Current DateTime: 01:45:05 30 Aug 2010

LinksList Documentid: 38919374

Cashin: Beware of Increased VolatilityBank Stocks with Strong Dividends20 Stocks with Potential To PopThe Risk Trade Now

A key problem in the market is that the retail investor has withdrawn from the market, said Jeff Saut, chief market strategist at Raymond James.



"Just like we had an optimism bubble 10 years ago, we have a pessimism bubble today," Saut said.

Monday, 30 August 2010

STI

Straits Times 2,957.06 +18.32 +0.62%

By JOANNAH PEREZ


SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed higher on Monday with the blue-chip Straits Times Index up 18.32 points to 2,957.06.

Volume was 1.38 billion shares worth $1.14 billion.

Gainers led losers 255 to 188

$100,000 above valuation - clever or crazy?

Read old posting on? Why Think Of Selling Dream Home?

Createwealth8888:

So is he crazy? I said no and I believe he could well afford it and knew how to live his life!


"Does everything in your life have a price tag and can be sold for a profit?" - Createwealth8888

----------------------------------------------

The Electric New Paper :


Despite friends' dissuasion, our journalist buys Choa Chu Kang HDB penthouse at whopping $755,000.

29 August 2010

Yes, I paid $100,000 in cash-over-valuation (COV) for my HDB flat. No, I did not mistakenly add an extra zero to that figure.

"Gila" (crazy in Malay), said one friend. Totally exorbitant, chided another.

But I have only one question: How much would you pay for the home of your dreams?

I felt it was worth paying $755,000 for the four-bedroom executive maisonette in Choa Chu Kang, even though I feel that property prices have hit ridiculously high levels.

The 12-year-old flat has 87 years left on its 99-year lease.

The Business Times reported last month that the median COV for executive flats and five-roomers in hot areas, such as Bishan, was $70,500 and $52,500 respectively.

Sure, the amount I paid was more than that. But it wasn't an impulse buy.

My wife and I considered many things before choosing this flat and finally signing on the dotted line.

So what happens when the property market cools and prices start dropping? Will I regret how much I have put into my new home?The answer is no.

I certainly don't plan to sell. Not even if someone dangles a $150,000 COV offer.

That's because I've found my dream home, where one day you'll find me relaxing in my roof garden, sipping a home-made teh tarik and watching the world go by from my 12th-floor perch.

By then, I hope I won't even remember how much of a hole I'd burnt in my pocket

Read more? Is Home For You to Retire Or to fund your Retirement?

New measures to cool property market

SINGAPORE: The government said Monday that it will increase the holding period for imposition of Seller's Stamp Duty (SSD).

The SSD will be raised from the current one year to three years.

Another measure will impact those who have more than one outstanding housing loan.

Property buyers who already have one or more outstanding housing loans at the time of the new housing purchase will have to pay more money upfront.

The government will increase the minimum cash payment from five per cent to 10 per cent of the valuation limit.

Those with more than one outstanding housing loan will also see a decrease in the Loan-to-Value (LTV) limit for housing loans granted by financial institutions regulated by MAS.

The LTV will be lowered from the current 80 per cent to 70 per cent.

The measures will take immediate effect on August 30.

The government said the objective of the measures is "to ensure a stable and sustainable property market where prices move in line with economic fundamentals".

It noted that the property market is currently very buoyant, with prices increasing by 11 per cent in the first half of this year.

It added that while Singapore has enjoyed strong economic growth in the first half, growth is expected to moderate in the second half of the year.

Should economic growth falter and the market correct, the government said property buyers could face capital losses.

It has thus decided to introduce additional measures now to temper sentiments and encourage greater financial prudence among property purchasers.

-CNA/wk

Sunday, 29 August 2010

What did I share with a guy called Noobz on our first meeting?

Potential Multi-bagger or Touchstone

Read on? Opportunity In The Stock Market?

How does a touchstone in a stock market feel like?

After you have bought that stock and its stock price never looked back but raced ahead. And even after several market corrections, its stock price has never pull back to the level near your last purchase price. Then congratulate yourself as you may have found a touchstone so don't ever throw it back to the sea out of habits. Or if you really need to realize profit, then only sell part of it.

Did that guy called noobz still remember his takeaway? I don't know!

On the trail of the smart money

By Goh Eng Yeow


Timing an investment right is everything, a successful investor will tell you. (Createwealth888: Don't listen to those nuts who tell you that you can't really time the market and profit from it.)

You may want to play it safe by hedging your bets by sticking to buying only blue chips.

But if you make your purchases just as the stock market is experiencing a bull run, you may find yourself staring at a loss when the market corrects, even though there is nothing wrong with the blue chips that you bought.

That is the unhappy experience confronting many investors who believed - rightly or not - that they could not go wrong by parking their nest eggs in a cache of blue chips.

Some of them had bought into household names such as DBS Group Holdings, Singapore Airlines and United Overseas Bank (UOB) when the great bull run of 2007 was in full swing.

But even after the rebound in the past six months that saw share prices gaining by more than 80 per cent, these investors are still sitting on losses.

So a pertinent question to ask is whether timing an investment right is really so difficult.

Take the global stock market collapse in October last year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 14 per cent within a month, while Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) lost 24 per cent.

The resulting loss in market confidence was so immense that many jittery investors bailed out of stocks altogether.

But around this time, legendary investor Warren Buffett took a contrarian view, and spent more than US$20 billion (S$28 billion) investing in United States corporate giants such as General Electric and Goldman Sachs.

He explained his rationale: 'Let me be clear on one point. I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month - or a year - from now. What is likely is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, before either sentiment or economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.'

His advice to investors: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

Events in the past six months bore him out. He made a paper gain of US$2.8 billion on his Goldman Sachs investment alone.

Still, if you think that Mr Buffett is too tough an act to follow, there are local corporate titans worth tracking, like UOB chairman Wee Cho Yaw.

After keeping his powder dry in the past two years when share prices rose to record levels, Mr Wee sprang into action in March when the STI sank to a six-year low of 1,456 points.

While market gloom kept most investors on the sidelines, he picked up 800,000 UOB shares for between $8.25 and $9.01 apiece that month. Since then, UOB shares have doubled in price.

That same month, Mr Wee bought 680,000 shares in Haw Par Corporation for between $3.35 and $3.41 apiece. Its price has now almost doubled as well.

To cap what had turned out to be a remarkably busy but fruitful month for him, he launched a takeover on property conglomerate United Industrial Corporation (UIC), whose share price was then languishing well below its break-up value.

Despite the relatively low price of $1.20 apiece he offered for the rest of UIC shares, big investors such as Morgan Stanley - which presumably wanted to get out at any cost - sold their shares to him.

This enabled him to raise his stake in UIC from 30 per cent to 45 per cent and he made a tidy paper profit of $180 million as its price recovered.

The moves made by Mr Buffett and Mr Wee provide valuable pointers on investment strategies for investors.

For one thing, take with a pinch of salt the advice given by your financial adviser or bank relationship manager about the need to make your hard-earned cash work harder to give you better returns.

Even though bank deposits attract a paltry return in the current near-zero interest rate environment, it is good to hold some cash.

Otherwise, you may find yourself in the same boat as other cash-strapped investors who wish they had the means to snap up blue chips at bargain basement prices, as when the stock market went into convulsions last year.

The other lesson for investors is not to let their emotions cloud their judgment, as they react to the daily share price movements.

Take events in the past six months. In March, when share prices sank to their lowest levels in seven years, investors were so fearful that nothing could convince them to even look at the stock market any more.

Then in the past two months, they were panicked into buying shares at far higher prices, for fear that they might miss out on the rally altogether.

Is that the right approach to take in making your investments?

Surely not. A prudent way to take emotion out of the equation is to compile a list of companies you would love to own for the long term and the prices that you would like to pay for them.

If, for whatever reason, they suddenly become available at these prices, you should revisit your investment thesis, check if it is still valid and make your decision accordingly.

If you think you do not have what it takes to make your investment decisions on your own, try tracking the moves made by a corporate chieftain like Mr Wee instead.

He has spent his life tracking the share prices of the various companies he owns - UOB, Haw Par, United Overseas Land and UIC - and the timing of his purchases reflects a deep understanding of when they offer great value as investments.

You can't go far wrong in timing your investment decisions by emulating the moves made by such canny investors.

Why the guy was so talented, he has to give seminars?

Borrow the idea from La Papillion

** "BIAS" is a special feature in my blog where I get to say whatever I want with scant regards for your feelings. I'm not politically correct in this feature, so go ahead, judge me."

I am going to do another BIAS!

Read older posting? Me, No multi-baggers :-( (Revisit)

Read more? Monitor courses by 'trading gurus' but you don't be the next Jack!

Singapore Stock Picker wrote in the comment..."hey which day's newspapers did you see the ad? I saw it too and I was quite curious as to why the guy was so talented, he has to give seminars.."

I also attended a few of such free preview seminars on how to make money on stocks or property and other money making stuff.

Most of these "Gurus" may claim that they or their founders have made millions of dollars for themselves using the less known secret strategies of  money making techniques. They may even say that actually there was no need for them to conduct training course as they were already so rich; but they felt it was time for them to "GIVE" back to the society and to help small investors to make money.

They may further say that they don't really earn much as compare to what they could make from their money making secrets so it was indeed a very BIG sacrifice of their precious time for them to "GIVE" back but it was worthwhile to do it.

What did you see in the picture below?

If you still don't see it. Let me know. I will tell you.

To charge $X,XXX for a 2-day seminar is giving back to the society? What a joke? It is actually another income stream to the seminar owner.

Watch out! These "Gurus" will tell you that one should not be cheapskate on their investment or financial education as the cost for not doing so is much higher when you lose badly in your investment due to lack of knowledge and skills in trading or investing.
Since these "Gurus" are already millionaires themselves why is there a need to try to make peanuts from investor's education. To really give back to the society, the "Gurus" should approach SIAS to organize seminars for small investors at $XX based on cost recovery basis and stop squeezing the blood money from small investors who are so poor thing as some of them may have lost years of their saving through bad investment.

Saturday, 28 August 2010

Gut or Intuitive Investing

Someone said: "those that does not do and not like to do analysis and still can make good returns based on their practical experience with stocks market, how can we fault them and insist they must do it our way. So, I am more liberal with regards to the need to do analysis."

Why not? That "practical experience" is better known as gut or intuition.

Read more on what I have said? When picking stocks, keep it simple?

Record Sing-dollar bond sales in August

Banyan Tree's $50m three-year, Sing-dollar bond sale adds to a flurry of debt sales in recent weeks


By CONRAD TAN

AUGUST is turning out to be the month for record Singapore-dollar bond issuance, with some $4.6 billion in bonds sold so far this month - more than a quarter of the total this year.

Companies have sold Sing-dollar bonds on 13 of the 19 business days so far this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Yesterday, luxury resort developer Banyan Tree Holdings said it had sold $50 million in three-year, Sing-dollar bonds, adding to a flurry of debt sales in recent weeks that have been snapped up by investors.

Companies have sold Sing-dollar bonds on 13 of the 19 business days so far this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

'We expect the market to continue to be active in the second half of the year, and that borrowers will continue to opportunistically tap the market to take advantage of the historically attractive interest rate environment,' said Jason Khoo, head of debt capital markets for South-east Asia at HSBC, which managed Banyan Tree's bond sale.

On Thursday, shipping group Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) sold $280 million worth of 10-year, Singapore-dollar bonds, paying interest of 4.65 per cent a year.

Banyan Tree increased its bond issue size to $50 million from a planned $30 million, after receiving orders worth $118 million - or nearly four times the original offer. It will pay interest of 6.25 per cent a year on the bonds.

The firm will use the funds raised as general working capital, for capital spending and investment, and to refinance existing debt, it said.

Insurers bought 40 per cent of the bonds, while rich individuals and private banks bought 35 per cent, and other banks bought the rest.

Most of the bonds were initially allocated to investors here, but some were quickly sold on in the secondary market to offshore investors, particularly offshore private banks, Mr Khoo said.

Private banks have become big buyers of Sing-dollar corporate bonds, bankers say. The relatively high yield on corporate bonds such as Banyan Tree's is attractive to private banks' rich clients, at a time when Sing-dollar fixed deposits here are paying interest of less than one per cent a year - though bank deposits carry almost no risk.

The annual yield on Singapore government securities ranges from 0.33 per cent for one-year treasury bills, to 2.92 per cent for 20-year bonds.

Big companies such as NOL, property developer CapitaLand or state-owned Temasek Holdings - seen as less likely to default on their debt - can afford to pay lower interest on their bonds than small companies, and still attract investors.

The search for extra returns by investors has allowed more companies to sell long-dated bonds to lock in relatively cheap borrowing costs for long periods of time.

Of the $17.3 billion in Sing-dollar bonds sold this year so far - the most ever - $9.6 billion, or more than half, had maturity lengths of seven years or more. That compares with just 14 per cent of Sing-dollar bond issuances last year, when investors were jittery, and 43 per cent in 2008.

Previously, fewer investors were willing to buy such long-dated Sing-dollar bonds for fear that the bonds would be difficult to re-sell without incurring a substantial loss, if investors needed to cash them in before maturity.

But as more such bonds are issued, and then actively traded after the initial sale, potential investors have become more confident that a liquid secondary market exists for bond investors, allowing them to re-sell the bonds easily if needed, Clifford Lee, head of fixed income at DBS Group, said earlier this week.

Similarly, the success of recent bond sales has spurred interest from other companies, who can see that investors' appetite for such bonds is strong, Mr Lee said.

Olam Weekly

Read? OLAM INTERNATIONAL REPORTS RECORD RESULTS

Risk-Reward Concept

This is a general concept related to risk and reward. When you take risk, you expect reward. In theory, when the risk is higher, you will expect more reward in order to invest; but for lower risk, you can accept lower reward.

Most investors can easily understand and can accept that the concept of a low risk and high return does not exist in the real world of investing. If such rare opportunity does happen,  investors will quickly chase the investment and cause its yield to fall.

But when it comes to investing in the stock market, some investors may choose to ignore or  blind to the general acceptance of risk-reward concept. They can believe that high yield low risk does exist in the real world of open and easily accessible markets. They may not believe that high yield may be an indication of high risk and tend to believe that the open market is wrong. Yes, mispricing can happen in a panic market but when the calm is restored the market is seldom wrong for long.

REITs. Simply explained! (4)

Read older posting? REITs. Simply explained! (3)

Investing in REITs is like investing in properties?

Do you believe that investing in REIT is like investing in properties (DIY investing)?

REIT Managers and analysts covering REIT sectors like you to believe so. They claim that buying into REIT is like owning a tiny portion of a big pile of properties and DPU is like your rental income.

Really ah?

In DIY property investment, you take care of your own interests and look forward to fatten your own wallet; but it is not the same as REIT.

The REIT Managers will look after their own interests and flatten their wallets first before distributing whatever leftovers to you as DPU (your rental income).

So it is never quite the same!

Lastly, do you like mutual funds (unit trusts)?

REIT is like a mutual fund specialising in properties investment and management but their expertise can be too costly.

DOW - Stocks End Week With a Rally; Dow Gains 1.7%

Dow 10,150.65 +164.84 +1.65%
By: Cindy Perman, JeeYeon Park


Stocks capped a rocky week with a rally Friday as investors breathed a collective sigh of relief after Fed Chairman Bernanke said the Fed was willing to do what it takes to stabilize the recovery

But stocks were down for much of the week, with the Dow on Thursday logging its first finish below 10,000 since early July. Despite Friday's gains, which helped the Dow regain its footing above 10,000, the blue-chip index finished the week off about 0.6 percent.


The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also gained Friday but finished down for the week. It was the third straight down week for all three major indexes.

It was a pretty eventful week, with existing home sales falling to 15-year lows and the Dow breaching that 10,000 mark, but a better-than-expected reading on GDP and encouraging remarks from Bernanke helped settle the market down by week's end.

Techs and industrials were the week's worst performers, while utilities and telecoms were the best.

The CBOE volatility index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, fell more than 10 percent today, to around 24.50.

Prep Your Portfolio into Next WeekDid Bernanke Put Floor Under Stocks?Traders See Bargains...In CanadaWatch This S&P Support Level

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed is ready to do what it has to help strengthen the recovery in remarks at the Fed's annual symposium on the economy in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Bernanke's comments helped assuage market fears over the recovery.

"The measured approach he's taking is a healthy one," said Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at BTIG in New York. "It's not the type that's going to supercharge the markets and help equity returns in the near term. But it will help build the foundation for the future and a steady recovery going forward."

Earlier, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC that he doesn't see a double dip — he thinks growth will steady towards the end of the year and get back to normal in 2011.

But other market pros said today's gains were largely a product of stocks hitting key technical levels — and short covering on bets against the market.

Friday, 27 August 2010

STI - So steady!


Straits Times 2,938.74 +12.87 +0.44%

By JOANNAH PEREZ


SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed higher on Friday with the blue-chip Straits Times Index up 12.87 points to 2,938.74.

Volume was 1.36 billion shares worth $1.05 billion.

Losers led gainers 220 to 203

REITs. Simply explained! (3)

Read older posting? REITs. Simply explained! (2)

"If you are near the Temple of Cows and keep hearing a bunch of cowboys chanting the Sutra of Milk, soon you will become religious." - Createwealth8888

Before you become so enchanted by day and night of non-stop chanting of Sutra of Milk by the bunch of cowboys and then run out and put a load of money into these Cows, be sure you understand the risks that are involved. Milk can become sour. Cows may be infected by Mad Cow disease.
 
Rising Interest Rate Risk
 
There is only one way for interest rate to go now - UP!. It may not happen so soon but it will definitely happen - RISING interest rate is the way to go!
 
Most REITs will use leverage to maximize returns on their Cows. So it is degrees of leverages that make them different from each other. Like any other leveraged investment, rising interest means higher cost of borrowing for growth and higher refinancing cost for maturing debts. Rising interest rate will soon cause the milk to turn sour.

Rental Market Cycle Risk

Real estate property typically goes through a boom to bust cycle so there is a risk in using current rental income to value a REIT for its high yield.

What current tenants are paying may be more or less than current market rents. When the current leases expire, the company will have to negotiate current market rents.

When current rents are below market rents, that's known as embedded rent growth or loss to lease, because when the lease is renewed, rents will have to go up.

When current rents are above market rents, that's known as rental roll-down, because when the lease is renewed, rental income will have to go down.

So the current high yield for new buyers is never guaranteed but still depends on the rental market cycle. So there will be a period known as renters' market, and that is generally bad for REITs. Milk will turn sour or can even bad and cause their stock price to decline or plunge.

Potential Management Risks - Mad Cow Disease

What Ho Ching said at her speech on S-REITs?

First, I would like to reiterate the vital role that the boards play in protecting the collective interest of unit holders.


The importance of a strong and experienced board with a high level of integrity becomes even more critical, as more S-REITs venture abroad for more assets, or as more regional assets from different emerging economies and judicial regimes are listed here as S-REITs.

Normally, the role of a board is to guide and direct management, acting as an experienced guide, friend and mentor. To properly fulfill their fiduciary duty, it is wise for a board to keep a healthy distance from their management and not be held to ransom by their CEOs. It is crucial that boards have the courage to hire and fire CEOs. Their hardest test comes when they have to make hard choices between high CEO performance and core institutional values.

As the Chinese say, 居安思危 戒奢以俭 [ju an si wei, jie she yi jian]: “Watch for danger in times of peace, Be thrifty in times of plenty”. Without a culture of strong values and self restraint, success can lead to corporate hubris and CEO imperialism. Such hubris is often the seed of eventual disaster.

Next come the REIT managers. Apart from being real estate specialists with deep knowledge and experience in the market, trust managers must also be familiar with credit, financial, operational and regulatory as well as real estate and market risks. Financial transparency is especially important for REIT managers.

Fundamentally, the strength of any REIT lies not only in the physical and financial quality of its assets and tenants, but also the integrity and business acumen of its managers in extracting and enhancing embedded value from the properties. The greatest risks are the subsequent poor assets acquisitions. Individual managers may also change over time, and asset acquisition norms may deteriorate.

Without a sense of fiduciary duty and moral obligation to the unit holders, a trust manager may ramp up the portfolio size indiscriminately without due care or regard for quality and sustainable value of its portfolio. This agency problem is even more acute if the trust manager is paid based on a percentage of the value of the portfolio it manages, and the size of acquisitions it makes. An incompetent or negligent manager can also similarly store up future time bombs if they don’t understand the risks involved.

Let me illustrate with a few simple examples.

For instance, an irresponsible or incompetent trust manager could collude knowingly or unknowingly with financially troubled or desperate vendors. The latter needs cash and the trust manager needs more assets in order to earn more fees. The trust manager agrees to buy assets at highly inflated prices, and the vendor agrees to lease back the asset, also at inflated rents which are well above market rates. Prerequisite hurdle yields are technically met. And both the vendor and the manager walk away, happy to be “winners” in an apparently win-win transaction.

In such a situation, the losers are the unit holders. In substance, they would be sitting on a capital loss right from the start, as the purchase price consideration far exceeds the fair market or replacement value of the asset. They would also be unwittingly saddled with a much larger credit risk than appropriate.

Imagine what happens if the economy takes a nose dive, and the troubled vendor goes belly up. The trust manager would have to scramble to find replacement tenants. Rentals would realistically be much lower than the previously inflated level. The unit holders would be hit with a drop in distribution yield. The value of the asset in the trust will similarly take a serious beating.

Thus, in reality and substance, the trust manager would have destroyed value, through deliberate fraud or through incompetence, by poor asset acquisitions. In the worst case, poorly supervised REITs may even evolve into a nasty pyramid game for crooked managers.

Another potential way to circumvent short term investment hurdle rates is to defer issue of trust units to the future in an asset purchase. This may make the investment case look better initially. In reality, the pain will come later.

Such charades shore up short term performance indicators at the expense of longer term pain. Worse still, they leave little buffer for the REITs to weather future storms. If, for whatever reason, rental rates cannot improve or asset enhancements fail to raise operating income, such deferred financial burdens could become very painful for the unit holders.

It is therefore vital that unit holders are made aware of the possibility of subsequent dilution of distribution yield. They need to understand the true all-in economic cost of any acquisition, and not be taken in by the initial understated costs.

In substance, such deferred capital payments may be nothing more than a form of shareholder’s loan. If so, they should be captured in the trust’s gearing ratio at the point of purchase commitment. Not doing so allows a trust to circumvent the prevailing 35% gearing cap imposed by the regulators.

DOW - 10,000 is broken!


Dow 9,985.81 -74.25 -0.74%
By: Cindy Perman, JeeYeon


The Dow lost its grip on 10,000, ending near session lows Thursday as trading was light and investors braced for two events Friday: the latest reading on second-quarter GDP and a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 74.25, or 0.7 percent, to close at 9,985.81. It was the first time the index finished below 10,000 since early July.


Just two of the 30 Dow components finished higher — Boeing [BA 61.32 0.56 (+0.92%) ] and Home Depot [HD 28.38 0.05 (+0.18%) ].

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also ended lower. The CBOE volatility index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, rose to nearly 27.

'Good Time' for Bargain HuntingGloom Level Is 'Out of Whack'September Could Be a Bumpy RideAre Stocks Too Cheap to Pass Up?12 'Hindenberg-Proof' StocksWD-40: A Dividend Play?

Investors have grown increasingly worried about the economic recovery and were jittery heading into Friday's update on second-quarter GDP as the number is expected to be revised down.

Economists expect the government to report that the economy grew just 1.4 percent in the second quarter, down from the initial estimate of 2.4 percent.

"Anything below 2.0 percent tomorrow will have stocks opening significantly lower," said Todd Schoenberger, managing director at LandColt Trading. "And based on this week's surprises on the downside, we're not ruling out anything...all indications have traders thinking volatility is to be expected leading into the weekend."

The double-dip debate continued: Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian said the recovery is losing momentum. And Economist Nouriel Roubini, aka "Dr. Doom," said chances of a double dip are now at 40 percent.

But some market pros cautioned that the doom is overdone and this is a good time to do some buying.

“It looks like a very good time to be going bargain hunting in the stock market,” Erik Ristuben, chief investment officer at Russell Investments, said on CNBC. “We're seeing maybe a little bit more of a modest recovery than we thought, but we're still in positive territory.”

Offering a little bit of encouragement, first-time applications for unemployment benefits fell by 31,000 last week to to 473,000. And mortgage rates continue to fall: The average on 30-year fixed dropped to 4.36 percent last week, Freddie Mac reported.

Techs were among the hardest hit as they are seen to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of economic growth.

Thursday, 26 August 2010

Monitor courses by 'trading gurus' but you don't be the next Jack!

Read older posting? Smart Money Grabbers over dummy investors - IV

Read older posting? Purchasing Property With No Money Down: My Personal Experience


"If someone really have Magical Goose that can lay $$$ so easily, why would they be selling at $X,XXX. They should have secretly passed on the Magical Goose to their family members to lay plenty of $$$ for themselves and become one of the richest families in Singapore for generations to come. So don't be the next Jack" - Createwealth8888

By businesstimes
THE proliferation of online trading 'academies' and self-styled 'trading gurus' claiming to be able to empower anybody to become profitable share and currency traders needs to be watched.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that a growing number of people seem to be falling for the enticing call of these so-called 'trading gurus', who promise 'massive wealth' in the 'shortest time possible' - as one outfit proclaims in its advertisements. Certainly, there is the need for investor education. And the market seems ready to provide such courses. Thus retail investors sign up for a whole plethora of seminars and coaching sessions hoping for a quick change of fortune. But what is being taught? Who are the teachers? How comprehensive is the course content?

None of this is to detract from the business schools and universities as well as the many respectable private educational institutions that provide sound and structured education in investment and financial management. But there is considerable evidence that retail investors do not think long-term and prefer to pick their investments based on their own, sometimes dubious, research. Such people are often the ones easily enticed by the short-term values of the 'trading gurus' who will find a hundred and one ways to convince them that they can create massive wealth in the shortest time possible with almost no effort. Such naive investors trade until they get their fingers badly burnt. This is not the outcome anybody desires for a class of Singapore's small-time investor community.

The government, through the vigilant eyes of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), has been tightening its regulatory framework to monitor the financial markets closely. The recent global financial meltdown has left scars everywhere and financial centres such as Singapore took a hit, though not with the calamitous consequences faced by many in the West. The government's relatively tight financial regime has played a decisive role, together with the prudence of the private sector, in maintaining the stability of financial markets. If Singapore is to maintain its well-earned status as a stable financial centre, this culture of vigilance and stringent supervision must continue.

It was welcome news that some brokerages among the 10 financial institutions that were banned for a year from selling structured notes by MAS have decided to shy away from selling new structured notes after the ban was lifted. MAS slapped on them the ban following a probe into the mis-selling of notes linked to Lehman Brothers to retail investors. The industry has learnt its lesson.

A close watch should now be kept on this new, booming sector of online traders and speculators, and dubious 'gurus' who seem to be leading them up the garden path. It's better to go for stringent accreditation of such 'financial advisers' now than wait for a painful fallout.

OLAM INTERNATIONAL REPORTS RECORD RESULTS

FY2010 Financial Highlights


�� Sales Volume of 7.0 million tonnes, up 22.5%; Sales Revenue of S$10.5 billion, up 21.7%.

�� Gross Contribution (GC) of S$1.1 billion, up 38%; GC per tonne up 12.6% from S$134 to S$151.

�� Net Contribution (NC) of S$901.0 million, up 48.4%; NC per tonne up 21.7% from S$106 to S$129.

�� Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) up 42.7% to S$359.7 million. Excluding exceptional items in FY2010 and FY2009, NPAT grew 49.3% to S$272.1 million. Net Profit Margin excluding exceptional items, up by 50 basis points to 2.6%.

�� EPS up 21.8% to 17.92 cents. EPS up 33% to 14.58 cents excluding exceptional items (in both years).

�� Board recommends final dividend of 2.5 cents per share. Full year dividend, including the declared interim dividend, amounts to 4.5 cents per share compared to 3.5 cents in FY2009.

STI - Still stubbornly supported!

Straits Times 2,925.87 -0.68 -0.02%

By JOANNAH PEREZ

SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed lower on Thursday with the blue-chip Straits Times Index down 0.68 of a point to 2,925.87.

Volume was 1.33 billion shares worth $999.20 million.

Losers led gainers 224 to 177.

REITs. Simply explained! (2)

Read older posting on? REITs. Simply explained!

"If you are near the Temple of Cows and keep hearing a bunch of cowboys chanting the Sutra of Milk, soon you will become religious." - Createwealth8888

Great Company

Some time I really wonder what so great and exciting about buying and milking cows?



Some cowboys may do it better than others by buying different types of cows - Singapore cows, Japanese cows, Chinese cows, Vietnamese cows, Indonesian cows, etc. BTW, they are still cows and squeezing milk.

Cows are not great companies.

Great companies are either global or regional market leaders with great products or services. They are also  innovative in developing new products or services to meet the future market needs. These are the hallmarks of great companies! Not too many cows please!

DOW - Crawl back above 10,000. Technical rebound or supported?

Dow 10,060.06 +19.61 +0.20%

By: Cindy Perman, JeeYeon Park


Stocks snapped a four-day losing streak Wednesday after a late rally.

Stocks had been lower for much of the day after dismal housing and durable goods data stressed the prospect of an economic slowdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to finish above the 10,000, after falling below that level earlier. The index gained 19.61, or 0.2 percent, to close at 10,060.06.


This came after a four-day losing streak in which the Dow lost a total of 3.6 percent. The index has fallen for 15 of the past 20 trading sessions.

Wednesday, 25 August 2010

REITs. Simply explained!

This is how REIT works:

One: Investors looking for cow milk.

Two: REIT Manager buys a Cow

Three: REIT Manager milks the Cow




Four: Investors get most of the milk


Five: More milk please!
 
Do one of these or both
 
Fatten the cow (enhance asset)



Press harder the cow's ripples by using both hand!

However, there is limit to how hard you can press the cow's ripple before she kicks your ass.


Six: But investors want more milk!

Then buy more Cows.





Seven:  Where to find money to buy more cows?

  • Go and borrow from banks
  • Do right issues or private placement
Then what happened?

Some retail investors are forced to take out more money from their wallet or some no money.

Some retail investors will Cow Father Cow Mother (in hokkien) when they realize they actually lose out in the right issue exercise or private placement.

And this will happen again and again when investors cry for more and milk milk but may end up more and more Cow Father Cow Mother (in hokkien)  when they realize again they are actually losing out!

Unlike Other Businesses

They don't just buy cows and milk them. Some will buy cows and produce goats, sheeps, or chicken (new products or services) and milk them in different ways.

Don't you want more than just cows?

Sharp drop in net inflows into CPFIS in Q2

By Ryan Huang


SINGAPORE : Net inflows to investment products under the Central Provident Fund Investment Scheme (CPFIS) saw a sharp slowdown in the second quarter.

For the three months to June, net inflows totalled S$157 million, down by over 80 per cent from the previous quarter's S$947 million. For Q4 2010, net inflows were S$1.1 billion

The data is based on a study by research firm Lipper, which added that outflows increased in line with market uncertainty.

Bonds emerged as the best performing asset class among unit trusts under CPFIS, as the market moved towards safer assets.

Lipper said bonds gained 0.9 per cent on average.

In contrast, equity portfolios saw losses of 8.63 per cent.

That dragged down overall performance for Q2 which saw an average loss of 6.55 per cent.

This was on the back of average losses of 7.27 per cent and 5.89 per cent among CPFIS-included unit trusts and investment-linked policies respectively.

In terms of the flow of funds, bonds saw a net inflow of 5 per cent or about S$150 million, while equities saw the highest outflow of about 10 per cent, or S$90 million.

Bonds are expected to be a key performer for the rest of the year.

But there's some upside for certain sector-related funds.

Rajeev Baddepudi, senior research analyst (ASEAN) at Lipper said: "While equity outflows have been generally negative, there are definitely pockets of quality investments that investors are chasing.

"Some of the sectors that have done well in the late part of the first half include pharmaceuticals, healthcare and technology and telecommunications." - CNA /ls

Sembcorp Expands In New Growth Area Of Jurong Island

- New anchor customer JAC secured


- Sembcorp to develop new multi-utilities facility and cogeneration plant

SINGAPORE, August 25, 2010 – Sembcorp is pleased to announce that it has secured its first anchor multi-utilities customer in the new growth area in the west of Singapore’s Jurong Island petrochemical cluster.

It signed a 20-year long-term utilities services agreement with Jurong Aromatics Corporation (JAC) today for the supply of steam and other water and wastewater treatment services to JAC’s upcoming aromatics complex.

To provide these services to JAC, Sembcorp will build a multi-utilities facility adjacent to the JAC aromatics complex and a new gas-fired combined-cycle gas turbine cogeneration plant close to the JAC aromatics complex, to provide integrated supply of steam, water and wastewater treatment services.

With a total investment cost of approximately S$800 million, the new multi-utilities facility and cogeneration plant are expected to be completed by the third quarter of 2013, and are expected to be funded through a mix of bank borrowings and internal sources. Occupying a land area of around 5.3 hectares, the new multi-utilities facility will be similar to Sembcorp’s existing multi-utilities centre in Jurong Island’s Sakra district and will supply around 350 tonnes of steam per hour, as well as other water and wastewater treatment services.

The new combined-cycle gas turbine cogeneration plant will have a capacity of 400 megawatts of power and 200 tonnes per hour of process steam in its initial phase. The development of the cogeneration plant is subject to the approval of relevant authorities.

Sembcorp’s expansion in the upcoming growth area in the west of Jurong Island will complement its current operations in the Sakra and Seraya districts of the island. Earlier in June, Sembcorp had announced that it had secured a long-term wastewater treatment contract from Lanxess for its upcoming butyl rubber production facility in Tembusu.

Commented Sembcorp Group President & CEO Mr Tang Kin Fei, “Our new contract from JAC is a strong vote of confidence in Sembcorp as the global leader in the provision of energy, water and onsite logistics and services to industrial sites. We thank them for their support and confidence in us.
 
With Sembcorp’s expertise and unmatched track record on Jurong Island, we look forward to supporting JAC and other new companies in the area as a vital partner for their total energy, water and wastewater treatment requirements.”

The investment and contract are not expected to have a material impact on the earnings per share and net asset value per share of Sembcorp Industries for the current financial year.

STI - well-supported!

Straits Times 2,926.55 +3.70 +0.13%

By JOANNAH PEREZ


SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed higher on Wednesday with the blue-chip Straits Times Index up 3.70 points to 2,926.55.

Volume was 1.16 billion shares worth $1.09 billion.

Losers led gainers 210 to 182.

Purchasing Property With No Money Down: My Personal Experience

By Mark Barnes

Have you ever seen those infomercials about buying houses with "No Money Down?" They are really well done. They have all kinds of people offering great testimonials about how they have gotten rich, buying rental properties, with absolutely no money out of their pocket. You see this guy, standing on a street corner, talking to someone, and he says, "I own that one," pointing to a beautiful colonial. "I also own that one next to it, and the one two doors down, and I'll be closing on the one directly across the street from it, next week." He then assures us that he has purchased 17 homes in the last eight or ten months, with zero money down on the properties. Plus, in many cases he's also paid no closing costs.


And, let's not forget, this same guy is grossing tens of thousands of dollars monthly, and his net worth is nearly one million dollars. So, he says.

Now, all of this looks wonderful, so when the person selling the course that will teach you how to do this, at a nifty price of just $297.00, speaks, you are glued to his every word. "Real estate is the safest and fastest way to make money, today," the expert will tell you.

So, can this really be done? Can you purchase houses with no money down? Can you become a landlord in as little as one month's time and start raking in the cash from those rent payments? The answer is an absolute "Yes." It can be done, and I am proof positive, because I've done it. The question you should be asking yourself is not can I buy real estate with no money down, but should I?

You see, this is a question that the guy selling the No Money Down course, with all of his people and their great testimonials hopes you never ask. His advertising and marketing strategy would collapse, if he gave anyone a chance to ask this question, because he would be forced to lie if he answered it.

Rarely is the whole truth anywhere to be found in infomercials, especially when the advertising is about No Money Down real estate programs. The infomercial makes the idea and the program look so easy that any child could handle it. It makes it seem like every American should be doing it, and we'd all be millionaires. But every American is not doing it, and many of the ones who are doing it not only are not getting rich, they are actually going broke. The infomercial won't tell you this. That's why I'm here.

The Truth

Now, let's get started with the truth about buying real estate with no money down and the truth about being a landlord. The first thing you need to know is that they are both very bad ideas. Let me illustrate by using my own experience in these areas. I started buying rental property nearly 10 years ago. The first property I bought was a deal orchestrated by some real estate con artist, who told me I needed just $2,000 to take ownership of this home and, in the process, help out a woman who was about to be foreclosed upon.

In two years, she would clean up her credit, refinance the loan on the house, and I would make $10,000. Sounded good to someone who was quick to buy into anything that returned big dollars in a short time.

This worked for the first year, as the woman paid on time, and I pocketed an extra $100 monthly. Later, though, things began to collapse, as the house began to need repairs, all of which the woman couldn't afford, so I had to pay for them. I put nearly $5,000 into the house in a four-year period. When I was finally able to sell it, I didn't quite make back what I had put into it.

Meanwhile, I was eager to overcome this problem by adding many more. A slick mortgage broker got hooked up with an even slicker real estate prospector, and the two of them convinced me that they had a way I could buy houses rapidly, with absolutely no money out of my pocket. Although my experience will probably be enough to enlighten you to the pitfalls of this model and of being a landlord, let me say that I can't emphasize enough how dangerous buying property with no money down is.

In six months time, I had purchased eight houses - many with loans from the same wholesale lender. These lenders should have been concerned with all of the debt I was building, but they kept approving loans, based on my good credit and rents covering the mortgage payments. One of the biggest problems, which I was not experienced enough to detect, was that most of the rents were just $50 to $100 above the mortgage payment.

"Don't worry," the investor/ hustler would say. "You'll make all your money on volume. We'll get you into 30 or 40 houses, and you'll be pocketing $4,000 to $5,000 every month."

As you might imagine, my mind raced. I was making the huge deposits at that very moment. My bank account was fattening up at breakneck speed.

The Illusion

This is what people who buy houses, using the No Money Down plan envision happening. After all, if you can buy one house with no money down, why not five or ten or fifty? For some reason - the vision of the dollar sign, most likely - I failed to seriously consider the maintenance of these houses, the possibility of missed rent payments, and the chance that renters might actually stop paying, altogether, forcing me to evict them - a time-consuming and extremely costly undertaking.

As you may have already guessed, all of these things happened to me, after I had amassed 26 rental properties. In fact, oftentimes, all of these problems happened in the same month. Now, for awhile (when I had about 10 houses), if one person failed to pay rent, I could cover it with the nine other payments. But when two, three and sometimes even five tenants didn't pay in the same month, it was devastating to my business. I had to go to my business account and pay up to $3,000 at a time in mortgage payments, with no income to cover it. Plus, I had to pay a property management company to get my tenants to pay or to evict them.

Soon, this became the norm, not the exception. There were constant problems at my houses. Unhappy tenants led to poor upkeep of the property and even more maintenance problems. About one year, after I had amassed 26 houses, I was having problems with roughly 10-15 houses and/or tenants each week. I was evicting at least two tenants each month, and approximately four to seven tenants were either behind on rent or not paying at all. Promises were made, payment plans arranged and few, if any, ever followed through.

It didn't take long for me to realize that this was no way to make money in real estate. Consequently, I got rid of these houses as fast as I possibly could. There were plenty of buyers, willing to take over my headaches, because they had the ability to make it work, they believed.

In 10 years of being a landlord, I lost thousands of dollars and likely took some years away from my life with all the stress I had endured. So, whatever you do, avoid the No Money Down Trap. There are much better, still inexpensive ways to make money in real estate.

Read old posting on? Property Investing - doing the Math - Part 4

DOW - Will 10,000 be broken again?



Dow 10,040.45 -133.96 -1.32%
By: Cindy Perman, JeeYeon Park


Stocks fell for a fourth straight session Tuesday, ending at their lowest levels in seven weeks, after a dismal report on existing home sales stoked worries about the economic recovery. But several homebuilders finished higher amid some buzz that now might be a good time to get into the sector

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 130 points, or 1.3 percent, led by Boeing [BA 60.93 -2.37 (-3.74%) ], Alcoa [AA 10.06 -0.31 (-2.99%) ] and Caterpillar [CAT 65.04 -1.80 (-2.69%) ].


The Dow has now lost 3.6 percent in the past four sessions.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also shed about 1.3 percent today. The S&P 500 is near short-term oversold levels, according to the 14-day relative strength index, which dipped near the 30 level. The CBOE volatility index, widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, was above 27.

Existing-home sales fell 27.2 percent in July to an annual rate of 3.83 million units, their lowest pace in 15 years. The prior month was revised lower to show a 5.26 million-unit pace.

The market's decline had initially accelerated amid disappointment in the housing report but soon snapped back as some pockets of gains began to emerge, most notably, in housing stocks.

Housing got a boost after several brokerages, including Citigroup, suggested now might be a good time to get into the sector.

Tuesday, 24 August 2010

SML - 200 EMA support coming soon?

SML - Near 200 EMA soon?



STI - Not to bad!


Straits Times 2,922.85 -3.14 -0.11%

By JOANNAH PEREZ


SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed lower on Tuesday with the blue-chip Straits Times Index down 3.14 points to 2,922.85.

Volume was 1.45 billion shares worth $1.38 billion.

Losers led gainers 276 to 162.

Right issue back again!

Read old posting on? Understanding Stock Market Risks - Updated

Dilution Risk

I heard loud chatting again on right issue!

Right issues are rarely good. It is either neutral, bad or suck!

Neutral

It is neutral if you have honestly already planned to increase your investment cost before the right issue announcement.

Bad

It is bad when you are forced to increase investment cost to prevent dilution.

Suck

No more money to subscribe for right issue. Suck Fingers liao!

DOW - Sign of Bear taking control. three-day loss to 2 percent



Dow 10,174.41 -39.21 -0.38%

By: Cindy Perman, JeeYeon Park


Stocks ended lower Monday, led by industrials, materials and techs. Investors once again shrugged off a wave of merger-and-acquisition activity, which normally gives the market a boost.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 39.21, or 0.4 percent, to close at 10,174.41. That brought its three-day loss to 2 percent

Monday, 23 August 2010

Mortgage default rate in S'pore halved in 2 years: DP Credit Bureau

SINGAPORE : The number of mortgagors defaulting on their property loans has reduced over the last two years, according to DP Credit Bureau (DPCB).


It said in a report that the average default rate across all age groups fell to a low 0.43 per cent in March 2010, down from the 0.89 per cent in March 2008.

DPCB general manager Lincoln Teo said this represents an improvement in the property market, leading to more positive sentiment which indirectly drives better payment behaviour.

The bureau also noted that while the proportion of loans in default is trending lower, there are variations across different age groups.

It said the percentage of 21 to 29 year olds defaulting on their mortgages has steadily fallen to 0.42 per cent, from 2.2 per cent two years ago.

Notably, it said the 50 to 59 year olds have overtaken the 21 to 29 year olds as the age bracket with the highest percentage of loans in arrears, with 0.62 per cent behind in their payments.

However, Mr Teo said while younger people are more consistent in meeting their mortgage obligations, they may not be handling other credit responsibly.

He also warned that with increasing property prices and bigger mortgages, this group may be shouldering a larger debt burden which may not be sustainable in the long run.

In addition, the bureau said that over time, there has been a shift towards younger borrowers, with the percentage of loans given to 21 to 29 year olds increasing, while for people over 50, the percentage of loans is declining.

Meanwhile, the report showed that 49.7 per cent of all mortgage defaults take place between the third and the fifth year of the loan, while 31 per cent take place after the fifth year.

STI - Rebound or break tmr?


Straits Times 2,925.99 -10.49 -0.36%

By JOANNAH PEREZ


SINGAPORE - Singapore shares closed lower on Monday with the blue-chip Straits Times Index down 10.49 points to 2,925.99.

Volume was 1.34 billion shares worth $1.16 billion.

Losers led gainers 280 to 164

SINGAPORE : Share prices in Singapore closed weaker on Monday as investors turned cautious on worries over the global economic outlook.


Traders said a shaky global economic recovery and losses on Wall Street continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

The ST index dropped 10.49 points to 2,925.99 on a trading volume of 1,157 million shares.

There were 280 losers against 164 advances by the close of the session.

The Singapore market fell with the region's exchanges although Asian economies are expected to see further economic growth, helped by China.

Sunday, 22 August 2010

SML - Near 200 EMA soon?


In the past, 200 EMA provided good support. Will this time be different?

Olam in Gabon tie-up to develop timber SEZ

Group to put in US$12m equity for 60% in JV vehicle; Gabon govt to hold 40%


(BT Weekend Singapore)

OLAM International, a global integrated supply chain manager and processor of agricultural products and food ingredients, has entered into a strategic partnership agreement with the government of Gabon to jointly develop a special economic zone (SEZ) at Nkok for timber processing in Gabon.

Olam will invest US$12 million equity in the SEZ development project for a 60 per cent stake in a joint-venture vehicle. The government of Gabon holds the balance 40 per cent.

To encourage local processing of logs and export of high value-added wood products, the government of Gabon is setting up an SEZ that offers developed infrastructure and fiscal incentives for the timber industry to invest in timber processing activities in the country, said Olam.

As one of the participants in the proposed SEZ, Olam will be eligible for additional forestry concessions that are reserved for all participants.

'The strategic partnership between Olam and the government of Gabon also paves the way for Olam to tap into new agricultural investment opportunities that fit into its long term strategic growth plan in Gabon,' the company said.

Gabon is one of the key countries identified in Olam's wood products growth strategy for accessing forestry concessions and saw milling opportunities. Olam currently owns 400,000 hectares of forestry concessions for tropical hardwoods in Gabon. The joint venture with Gabon to develop an SEZ for timber processing supports the company's interest to expand its forestry concessions and timber processing activities there, it added.

Do you have respect for Market Wisdom and Crowd Behaviour?

The stock price movement is, in effect, more often or not conveying the collective wisdom (TA and FA) of the entire market; but some time this collective wisdom will be over-powered by the madness of crowd behaviour - forces of greed and fear.


'I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.' - Sir Isaac Newton

This madness of the crowd normally doesn't last long. Soon the market storm will be over and calm return to the market and once again the collective wisdom of the market will continue to drive stock price - either up, down or side-way for another period of time.

For a shorter while, yes, you may go against the madness of the crowd and benefit from it; but for a longer while it is still better to respect the collective wisdom (TA and FA). It is always worth asking yourself why you are right and the market is wrong? How come you seem know more than the market through publicly disclosed materials while smart money and big boys are not? In fact, most smart money and big boys have more access to non-publicly disclosed materials and they should be better informed than most retail investors.

We mustn't forget that these smart money and big boys have only one objective in the market - to make money for themselves and their investors. For a longer while, they are unlikely not to discover any market gems. So after 1 or 2 year of holding the stock, if the stock price still doesn't move in your favour, most likely you are wrong and the market is right.

Saturday, 21 August 2010

High Dividend Yield Stocks? - Part 8

Read older post on? High Dividend Yield Stocks? - Part 7

I believe all investors will love high dividend yield unless you are a day trader who don't really need to care on dividend.

Imagine a high dividend yield bandwagon is rolling past you. A few people on the back of the wagon are partying and playing music of their lives and singing the song of high yield. You may be unable to resist the sweet sounds being played and run to join the party.

But, before you jump on the bandwagon, you may want to wonder a bit as there can be more than one way of looking at high yield; its associated risk of future dividend cut and impact to its stock price.

A. High Yield High Growth

I don't think you can find it now in the current market. If you can find it, don't tell anyone. Sell your car and mortgage your home and load it up! Just kidding. LOL

You are more likely to find high yield high growth stocks during big bear markets but you may not have courage at that time to load them up so it is pretty hard to load up high yield high growth stocks in your portfolio.

B. High Yield Low Growth

Even in the current market condition (STI at 2936 quite near to its recent high), you can still find some low hanging easy reach high yield stocks. How come?

Unless you believe that market is lack of smart money or big boys, otherwise there may be valid reasons why these big boys or smart money choose not to chase them up and naturally it will cause the yield to fall for new buyers.

High yield may be an indication of low growth and investors are expecting higher income to compensate for low growth so market may have priced in that expectation.

C. High Yield High Payout

High yield due to high payout e.g. company paying out 90% or more of its earning. Future dividend is never a sure thing and can be cut.

For companies that are paying too much of their earning as dividends will have less reserves and they are more likely to cut dividend when earning is hit.  How will market react to its dividend cut? Is this a risk worth taking for chasing recent high yield?

D. High Yield  Asset Light

High yield due to company changing strategy from asset heavy to asset light. This is not sustainable in the long run as there is a practical limit to how light asset can be.

E. Medium Yield High Growth

Medium yield due to lower payout e.g. company paying less than 50% of its earning and using the rest to fund its growth. There is more opportunity for the market to price in its capital appreciation in the long run; but less likely for dividend cut since its dividend payout ratio is not high so there is more room for earning hit. In the long run, a lower payout may actually provide a more steady yield even in bad economy.

This may be a better dividend yield strategy for a long-term investor.

In Conclusion

Dividend is a sub-set of earning so it is the future earning that counts. So don't fall into high yield trap! The attractiveness of RECENT high yield ALONE may not drive stock price. When the stock price increases, the yield decreases so the recent high yield can only drive the stock price to a certain level and become unattractive and stop there.

In the long run, it is high growth that drives higher earning which will then drive stock price and may  increase your personal purchase yield  but recent buyers will get lower yield.

Higher capital appreciation can mean that you have already collected multiple years of dividends well in advance. A multi-bagger with high yield is the dream of every investor who loves yield.

I love A and E more. How about you?


Read more? High-yield, low-payout stocks stand out

DOW - Sign of cracking but can it become worse?

Dow 10,213.62 -57.59 -0.56%

NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks closed moderately lower Friday as investors' pessimistic view of the economy deepened.


There was little reason for investors to buy. There were no reports to offset Thursday's disappointing news that growth in the domestic economy continues to slow. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 57 points a day after falling 144. The other major indexes also fell moderately.

"We're not seeing any significant growth prospects," said Peter Costa, president of Empire Executions. "Why be in the market if there's no (near-term) prospects for growth?"

Oil prices fell again on worries that future demand will wane if economic growth remains tepid. Energy stocks were among the worst performers, including oil companies Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips.

Overseas markets also fell, reacting to reports Thursday that initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose last week and that manufacturing in the Mid-Atlantic region shrank.

"We're probably on a continuation from yesterday's disturbing claims number," said Paul Zemsky, head of asset allocation at ING Investment Management. "There's really nothing to hang your hat on."

The Dow fell 57.59, or 0.6 percent, to 10,213.62. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 3.94, or 0.4 percent, to 1,071.69, while the Nasdaq composite index rose 0.81, or 0.04 percent, to 2,179.76.

For the week, the Dow fell 0.9 percent, while the S&P 500 index fell 0.7 percent and the Nasdaq rose 0.2 percent. The indexes seesawed through the week as investors shuttled between optimism and pessimism about the economy.

About three stocks fell for every two that rose on the New York Stock Exchange, where consolidated volume came to 3.8 billion shares, down from 4.4 billion Thursday.

Traders' vacations have left volume exceptionally low this month. The uncertainty about the economy has made those who are working hesitant to make any big moves.

Data has shown in recent months that private employers are reluctant to hire new workers because they are unsure how strong business will be in the coming quarters. That, in turn, has people worried about their jobs and spending less. But until spending picks up, unemployment could remain high. The vicious circle has investors turning away from stocks.

Mark Luschini, chief market strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, said companies are also reluctant to hire because of worries about taxes and government programs like the health care reform passed earlier this year.

"The uncertainty that exists on regulatory and income taxes has (employers) in stall mode," Luschini said. Companies are worried about whether higher taxes and costs associated to regulation reform will impact profit margins and cause shoppers to reduce spending if they are paying more taxes, Luschini said.

The unemployment rate remains at 9.5 percent and analysts widely agree it needs to fall to lead to a stronger rebound.
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