Your Valentine's Roses



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Welcome to Ministry of Wealth and Gifts for your loved ones!

This blog is authored by an old multi-bagger blue chips stock picker uncle from HDB heartland!

"The market is not your mother. It consists of tough men and women who look for ways to take money away from you instead of pouring milk into your mouth." - Dr. Alexander Elder

"For the things we have to learn before we can do them, we learn by doing them." - Aristotle

It is here where I share with you how I did it! FREE Education in stock market wisdom.

Think Investing as Tug of War - Read more? Click and scroll down


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Important Notice and Attention: If you are looking for such ideas; here is the wrong blog to visit.

Value Investing
Dividend/Income Investing
Technical Analysis and Charting
Stock Tips

Monday, 31 May 2010

Kep Corp - Lack of follow up buying



STI - Not too bad today

STI 2752.60 +12.90

SINGAPORE - Singapore shares ended 0.5% higher on Monday as the broad weakness in financial markets in the month of May provided some late buying opportunities for investors.

Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index rose 12.90 points to close at 2,752.60, as investors shrugged off a negative finish on Wall Street on Friday.

Overall volume traded was 1.1 billion shares worth S$1.57b, compared with 1.5 billion shares on Thursday. The Singapore Exchange was closed on Friday for a public holiday.

In the broader market on Monday, gainers outnumbered losers 273 to 179.

Among the gainers, Noble Group rose 4.0% to S$1.81. Macquarie Research, which has an outperform recommendation on the stock, said the group is unlikely to face any refinancing risk in the near term.

Neptune Orient Lines was 3.2% higher at S$1.93, clawing back some of its heavy losses from the month of May.

DBS Vickers said the 12.6% retreat since its first-quarter earnings report earlier this month represents a buying opportunity and that "in view of the improved industry fundamentals and further increases in Transpacific annual contract rates, negotiations for which are currently underway, upside potential outweighs downside risk."

Altucher: "Relax," We've Been Through Much Worse Than This

Europe’s sovereign debt crisis has wrecked havoc on the markets in the last few months. We’ve had a spike in the VIX, aka the fear index, the flash crash and many global markets are now back in bear market territory. In the U.S. were on track for the worst May in half a century.


The wild market action has many investors wondering: How will we get out of this mess?

"Everybody needs to just relax a little bit," says James Altucher, president of Formula Capital. "This is not Argentina, this is not Zimbabwe."

The market has been through much worse than this in the past 30 years and Altucher believes the economy and stocks will remain resilient.

When has it been worse?

--In 1982-83 Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela and most of Latin America all defaulted or, came close to defaulting. "The whole world was going bankrupt and we were coming out of the Volcker led recession from the early '80s where he was fighting inflation," he notes. Guess what? After a bailout – U.S. markets were up 49% those two years.

-- 1987’s Black Monday. Think the 'flash crash' was frightening? On October 19th, 1987, the Dow fell 22%. In a single day! Hong Kong markets fell 45% on that day, alone.

--1997’s Asian financial crisis lead to Russia debt default in the following year and the collapse of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management. Talk about contagion.

-- September 11th, 2001. "It seemed like the world was ending, it was the scariest thing that happened to me, at least, in my lifetime, and it was horrible for the country," Altucher recalls. "And, we were in the middle of a recession."

Bailouts and quantitative easing followed most of these previous crises. But our current predicament comes after we've already had the biggest bailout in history and rates can't go lower. Altucher has a retort to that concern too, noting half the stimulus package hasn't been spent yet. In fact, he's more concerned that using the rest of the funds will create another bubble and lead to higher inflation.

That's a problem the Fed might look forward to.

Kep Corp - CE for KGT

KGT’s listing will be distributed by way of a dividend in specie to entitled shareholders in proportion to their holdings in Keppel, with every entitled shareholder receiving 1 Unit for every 5 shares held. The distribution amounts to approximately S$379 million in the form of up to 326 million KGT Units. This translates into an implied value of approximately S$1.16 per KGT Unit, and a distribution value per share of approximately 23 cents.

Sunday, 30 May 2010

Fundamental or Technical Analysis? - Revisit

Fundamental or Technical Analysis?

By visiting investment blogs, some time I really get entertained by some retail value investors trying to convince others how they have done their wonderful works of deep fundamental analysis while forgetting what their Grand Master towards to the end of his investing life said:  A Conversation With Benjamin Graham

Technical or Fundamental analysis

One uses technical indicators and charting to forecast the stock price movement while the other one uses financial ratios, understanding businesses and attending AGMs to judge the quality of the Management and by asking the Management a few questions here and there to justify their investment decisions.


Technical or fundamental analysis are both guesswork and speculative in nature and the final results of such analysis are never certain and often lagging in nature.

The future of any company can turn unexpectedly in short time due to the external circumstances far beyond the control of the company and often the Management of these affected businesses will shut their mouths for as long as possible. Some may even deny it outright.

Portfolio Management - Diversification Is Your Friend - Part 3


Some retail investors disagree that diversification is your friend and like to quote Warren Buffet's saying.

"Diversification is Nothing More Than Protection Against Ignorance." - Warren Buffett
 
I advocate diversification for the purpose of risk control as investing in stock market by nature is risky.
 
Doing the Maths
 
For example:
 
You have $100K as investing capital and invest in a portfolio of 10 diversified stocks - $10K per stock. You are taking a risk of 10% of your investing capital per stock.
 
If unfortunately bad thing happen to one of your stocks in your portfolio and get wipe out.

Your portfolio lost 10% and your investing capital is down to $90K. This $90K capital will require an average 11.3% returns on 9 stocks to break-even. Do you think it is easy to achieve an average 11.3% returns for 9 counters.
 
But what if your weight-age of each stock is only 5% of your capital or total of 20 diversified stocks, then the portfolio will require 5.3% returns to break-even. An average of 5.3% returns on 19 counters may be achievable.
 
See the table below for different weight-age:
 

Portfolio Management - The Importance Of Realized Profit (Part 3)


To pursue an all passive income strategy, the amount of investing capital required to hold in the stock market at the different rate of returns for the desired amount of stock dividends received.


Saturday, 29 May 2010

Future planning: Investing for retirement is a non-negotiable financial goal.

When buying a car, upgrading the family residence and providing for retirement or your children's quality education, there are limitations and trade-offs to consider

By Roy Varghese

UPPER middle-class families in Singapore typically have four main lifestyle goals: replace the family car every five years, upgrade the primary residence at least once, educate the children overseas, and achieve financial independence by age 60 or so to enjoy a comfortable retirement lifestyle. But unless the family's combined household income is in the top 10 per cent bracket nationally, there are limitations and trade-offs to consider before constructing a realistic financial plan that includes all four goals.

Car ownership

The price of new cars has fluctuated considerably over the years owing to COE, import duties, foreign currency exchange rates and so on. If we assume that our model family owns a 2-litre Japanese car which they replace every five years over a 40-year period, this is how the math works out in the Singapore context. At an average price of $120,000 (in 2010 dollars) for a new car, the monthly instalment for the car loan works out to about $1,000. The road tax, insurance and maintenance costs add up to another $500 per month. The cost of petrol, ERP and parking fees similarly may cost a further $500 each month. From age 30 to 70, this couple will have paid the bank close to $500,000 in absolute dollars ($1,000 per month over 480 months) for owning a new car and replacing it every five years or so. The price for convenience makes car ownership the top lifetime consumption item and drain on family resources. With the money spent on eight new Toyota Camrys or Honda Accords, you could send two kids to Princeton or Columbia, if they manage to get admitted.

Home mortgage

Let's paint a picture of a hypothetical couple's home ownership pattern. They graduate from university, work for a few years, marry at age 28 or 30, buy an HDB apartment for $300,000 and then upgrade to a private property by age 35. If we assume a very nice condo or even a terrace house, the purchase price in 2010 dollars would be about $1.5 million, without renovations. We can amortise renovations over the life of the house and treat this as an operating expense rather than as capital expenditure for the purpose of our analysis.

Let's assume that the HDB flat was fully paid for at the time of sale in 2010 and that the proceeds were used as equity in the upgraded private property. At an average interest rate of 3 per cent pa, the $1.2 million mortgage over 25 years would result in a monthly outlay of $4,000 in cash and CPF. The interest element to the bank for the financing of the private home would be about $600,000 in total.

It may appear that the borrowing cost for the home is comparable to the money spent on cars. However, there is a crucial difference - the home has an investment value in retirement whereas the cars depreciate the moment they leave the showroom.

Saving for retirement

This is the one long-term goal that almost everyone has in their financial plan. 'We need a retirement income of $5,000 per month in today's dollars from age 60 onwards.'

A very modest lifestyle aspiration indeed and realistic too. If you exclude mortgage payments, income tax, life insurance premiums, and the children's higher education costs, the model couple can live comfortably on $5,000 per month if they retire today.

To make the retirement capital last till 90, without having to sell the family condo or terrace house, this 60-year old couple would need to accumulate at least $1.5 million today. With a combined monthly household income of $12,000 by age 40 (see The Business Times March 20, 2010 'Double Your Income Every 10 Years'), it is possible for our hypothetical couple to save and invest an average of $4,000 per month over 20 years for the target retirement capital accumulation. This works out to about $1 million ($48,000 per year over 20 years) saved or twice the amount spent on cars or mortgage interest on the home. An average annual rate of return of 5 per cent compounded over 20 years will provide this couple with the nest egg for their retirement lifestyle.

Apart from having a roof over your head, saving and investing for retirement is a non-negotiable financial goal. The issue for young and middle-aged parents is: can you afford the trappings of upper middle-class lifestyle (present and future) and educate your children abroad at a world-class institution?

Ivy League education

If you embark on constructing a comprehensive financial plan in your early 40s, funding your children's tertiary education is usually a medium-term goal. If you have 8-10 years to save and invest for the children's university education, there is a high probability this can be achieved without having to compromise your other financial goals. The math is fairly straightforward. If you wish to send your child to SMU, NUS or NTU, the cost is about $50,000 per child for a 3-year degree program in today's dollars. This is almost the equivalent of financing one new Camry per child's entire local tertiary education. In order for your child to graduate from Yale University, parents will have to shell out S$300,000 today for a 4-year undergraduate programme.

If you have more than one child, good luck as you have to play Solomon and decide who stays home and who gets to go to New Haven, unless your resources are unlimited or there is a scholarship available for at least one child.

There is no doubt that our children can receive quality tertiary education in Singapore despite the widely-held perception in some circles that a degree from a prestigious foreign university provides an edge over a local degree. There is no data available to suggest that an Ivy League education guarantees a higher lifetime income compared to local degrees. It may be that a child who qualifies for admission to an Ivy performs better in her career because she is a high achiever by nature.

In conclusion, there are some lessons to be drawn regarding funding overseas tertiary education. If you can accept driving a smaller or used car, there is some hope of capping spending on car ownership. The affordability of housing is critical in limiting finance charges for owner-occupied private property.

By the time you are 50, you will most likely have set money aside for your children's local or overseas education. This means that retirement funding is typically the last goal to be realized and for some, this may be leaving it too late. To fund a comfortable retirement lifestyle, a good number of upper middle-class families may need to trade down their private homes in their 60s to make up for the shortfall in liquid assets.

I know many parents are happy to scrimp and save so that their children can enjoy the returns on a world-class education. And it is laudable to help our children realise their dreams and reach their potential with a branded college education. But unless we are confident about being financially independent in retirement, it is best to consider trade-offs for the big ticket items in life before promising our children an expensive overseas university education.

The writer is Foundation Adviser at ipac Singapore. These views expressed are his own and not ipac's. He can be reached at roy.varghese@ipac.com.sg

Portfolio Management - The Importance Of Realized Profit (Part 2)

Portfolio Management - The Importance Of Realized Profit

Portfolio's Balance Sheet

Current Value of stocks + Cash available for investing

= Injected Capital + Total Realized P&L + Total Dividends Received + Total Unrealized P&L

Sources that help to increase portfolio value
  1. Injected Capital: Periodic injection of more capital; but this doesn't really help to improve your investing skills and experiences in the stock market. It only provides you with a feel-good factor.
  2. Total Realized P&L: More frequent profit taking can help to increase the cash available to re-invest for compounding effect as it is much easier to re-invest the gains together with the recovered capital. It is always easier to buy with more money on hand.
  3. Total Dividends Received: These are periodic and less frequent and it can also help to increase cash available to re-invest; but it is usually harder to achieve compounding effect for average retail investors with smaller capital base. It is lot harder to buy with less money on hand. For example, someone who has received $50K of dividend income will definitely find it easier to re-invest than one with $5K.
  4. Total Unrealized P&L: These are just paper gains or losses that exist in the investors' mind and can't really do anything with it. Some days it makes you happy and other days it makes you sad.
Have you realized that depending on dividends alone is not enough to improve the portfolio's balance sheet, we really need more frequent realized profits and together with the capital recovered to re-invest them for compounding growth. So we need both!

DOW - No follow up! Late Selloff Closes May at Nearly 8% Loss


Dow 10,136.63 122.36 (1.19%)

Stocks Tumble, Dow Ends Worst May Since 1940

4:30 pm : Stocks made some dramatic swings this session, but the broader market failed to find enough support to prevent a sharp loss that secured its worst monthly performance since February 2009.


The major equity averages traded in negative territory for the entire session as many buyers took a break after the S&P 500 surged more than 3% in the prior session. Many were also inclined to get an early start on the long, holiday weekend (U.S. markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day).

Friday, 28 May 2010

The day when doctor brings bad news. It can happen to anyone.

Under-estimating risks and over-confidence - The day when doctor brings bad news. It can happen to anyone and nobody is exempted.

TODAYonline
Friday, May 28, 2010

'I was in denial ... it was sheer stupidity'


Health minister hopes confession about surgery delay will be 'life-saving reminder' to others

05:55 AM May 28, 2010SINGAPORE - He has spoken to many patients in denial when confronted with an illness. But faced with the same situation himself, Health Minister Khaw Boon Wan fell into the same trap.

With a high calcium score and an abnormal electrocardiogram stress test reading, it was obvious to the cardiologists that he needed a coronary angiogram as soon as possible.

"But I was in denial," Mr Khaw, 57, wrote on his blog, in two postings titled 'A lifesaving discovery' and 'Living at cliff's edge'.

This resulted in a "risky six weeks delay", against doctors' advice, before he finally got the angiogram done on May 3. He is now recovering well after undergoing heart bypass surgery on May 4.

It was in March that Mr Khaw, who professed to have been "fit as a fiddle" with normal cholesterol and blood pressure levels, discovered - during a scan for calcium deposits in the heart - that he had a serious problem.

He thought he would be "in the mild or at most moderate range, say around 100. So it was a shock to me when the NHC (National Heart Centre) cardiac radiologist reported a reading of 507 ... I was literally disoriented", Mr Khaw wrote.

NHC medical director Professor Koh Tian Hai pressed him to go for a coronary angiogram that very week, but a "very reluctant" Mr Khaw negotiated for more time to mull over the situation.

When an NHC staff member called up a few times to schedule the angiogram session, "I played delay tactic".

Mr Khaw kept the information from his siblings, when he went to Penang one weekend for Qing Ming, the Chinese tradition of ancestral worship at the graveyard. "I did not want to alarm (them) and I still thought that it was all a false alarm," he said.

But he did confide in labour chief Lim Swee Say, who was most alarmed and thought that he was wrong to postpone the angiogram.

Mr Khaw even intensified his exercise routines - against doctors' advice - to prove he was in top physical form. "I used to run on treadmill three times a week, I increased it to five."

His doctors had also urged him to carry a Glytrin spray, which he should spray under his tongue in the event of angina, so as to bring down his blood pressure while waiting to be taken to hospital.

Mr Khaw faithfully carried the spray with him wherever he went - but only for a few days. "Then I told myself: I am not going to get a heart attack; I am not going to carry this."

Looking back, the Health Minister wrote: "While it is understandable why I did what I did, it was sheer stupidity and madness."

He expressed his gratitude to the NHC, Prof Koh and the NHC Sister who persisted in getting him to finally sit down with doctors and run through his options. "That session pulled me from cliff's edge and got me back on the rational track." Mr Khaw also recalled the comments of a general practitioner (GP) with over 30 years of experience, who had noted that patients who comply well with his advice, especially in taking the lifelong medication, are largely still around.

Those who suffer from a heart attack, stroke or other major complications, come largely from the group who do not comply, or do so half-heartedly - either in denial or over-confidence of the state of their health.

"I was stubborn and was not a good patient for nearly six weeks. I am making this confession so that hopefully, it can be a life-saving reminder to others.

"Please do not follow my example," said Mr Khaw.

STI - Is 2008 Bear roaring back?


Who will win?
Hurry! Place your bet quick before World Cup!





Portfolio Management - Your Personal Over-Sold and Over-Bought Indicator - Revist

"One thing you don't want to do, 'whether you're a professional or an individual investor, is to make an emotional judgment about the marketplace." - Larry Hatheway

Keeping your emotions at the sideline - buy slowly and sell slowly. Buying the top 10-20 blues with good dividends and growth is the way to go. There is no need to crack your head and squeeze your brain juice so much.

http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/2010/03/portfolio-management-your-personal-over.html

DOW - Bears shitting liao!



Dow 10,258.99 +284.54 +2.85%

Yahoo Finance

Stocks surged in high volume as market participants showed a willingness to take on risk after China conveyed a sense of confidence in Europe.


A positive tone permeated trade for the entire session. Many media sources said the initial catalyst was a denial by China about possible reviews of European debt holdings. Though that was interpreted as a vote of confidence in the continent that has caused so much concern related to systemic risk amid the persistent fiscal problems of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain, the news item doesn't do anything to change circumstances that currently face Europe.

Despite lingering concerns, Europe's major bourses still rallied in excess of 3% and the euro sprinted to a 1.5% gain against the greenback.

Domestic markets shared in the improved sentiment. The upbeat tone persisted for the entire session and even intensified into the close. In turn, the stock market settled at a session high with more than 98% of the names in the S&P 500 closing with a gain.

The strongest move was made by financials. They tacked on a collective gain of 4.5% as insurers and diversified financial services plays spiked.

Energy stocks were also especially strong. The sector climbed 4.2%. Higher oil prices helped as contracts for the energy component closed pit trade with a 4.2% gain at $74.50 per barrel. Oil prices have climbed more than 8% during the course of the past two sessions.

Advancing volume on the NYSE totaled almost 1.4 billion shares, which is close to the average total trading volume for the NYSE over the past 50 sessions. Advancing volume had a near 10-to-1 advantage over declining volume.

Thursday, 27 May 2010

Keppel receives approval to list K-Green Trust

Createwealth8888: This is Dividend In Specie valued at 23 cents
--------------------------------------------------------------------

SINGAPORE : K-Green Trust (KGT) has received conditional eligibility to list on the mainboard of the Singapore Exchange.


Keppel Corporation first announced its intention to list the green infrastructure assets of its waste management, water treatment, water reclamation, renewable energy arm, Keppel Integrated Engineering, in January this year.

KGT recently received permission from the National Environment Agency to add the Senoko and Tuas waste-to-energy plants into its portfolio.

It also counts the Ulu Pandan NEWater plant as one of its assets.

The trust aims to invest in environmentally-friendly assets in Singapore and abroad, with an eye to Asia, Europe and the Middle East. - CNA/ms

STI - Where to before retiring quietly to watch World Cup?

SML - Bullish!


Important for the bulls to push it right across $4.10

STI - Bears are feeling the heat!





Straits Times 2,739.70 +43.68 +1.62%

STI is unexpectedly strong; probably due to bears running for cover!




DOW - Gone case liao!


10,000 broken!

Dow 9,974.45 -69.30 -0.69%


Stocks Finish Lower After Giving Up Rally


CNBC.com

Stocks closed more than a half-percent lower after a bargain-hunting rally collapsed late Wednesday, with traders booking gains from earlier in the day and refusing to give the market a vote of confidence.

Financials and technology led the market lower but the selloff was nearly uniform. The Dow closed below 10,000 for the first time since early February.

The drop underscored fear in the market from global uncertainty and concerns about the strength of the US recovery, with the euro taking faltering against the dollar late in the trading day.

Wednesday, 26 May 2010

Stop loss or Cut loss?

Createwealth8888:

Stop Loss

Stop loss is when you pre-determine your own exit price to take the loss and walk away. It is just one of those bad trades and it is not that painful as the loss tends to be smaller.

Cut Loss

Cut loss is different from Stop Loss. Cut loss is when you felt so hopeless at the falling stock price and it has reached your threshold of pain. You bite your finger and sell it and move to the sideline for a while.  Cut loss is usually bigger and more painful.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BT, Wed, May 26, 2010, Singapore

Resisting the urge to sell low


When stock markets lurch, hasty decisions taken at anxious moments can be extremely costly to investors


IF you've got money in the stock market, take a deep breath: It's one of those moments. The market is lurching, and that is precisely when impulsive behavior can hurt the most. Investing can be a delightful pastime when stocks are rising. When they are falling - which has often been the case lately - it can be excruciating. But hasty decisions taken at anxious moments can be extremely costly.

'When a lot of people reach their threshold of pain, they sell their stocks and try to move to more secure holdings.'

'When a lot of people reach their threshold of pain, they sell their stocks and try to move to more secure holdings - cash, bonds, Treasuries,' said Louis S Harvey, president of Dalbar, a fund research firm in Boston. 'These decisions don't work out very well for most people.' Over the long haul, the average investor has badly underperformed the overall stock market: Through December, over the last 20 years, the average stock fund investor has had annualised returns of only 3.2 per cent, compared with 8.2 per cent for the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index, according to Dalbar. Short-sighted moves in down periods account for much of the deficit, Mr Harvey said.

Lately, anxiety among investors undoubtedly has been rising. The flash crash of May 6 - the biggest intraday swing in market history - didn't help. Shortly after 2.30pm that day, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 1,000 points - and then came most of the way back, all in a matter of minutes.

The causes of that sharp drop aren't yet entirely clear, although they appear to be related in part to glitches in the connections of lightning-quick computerised stock trading across the United States.

In response, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last week said it would temporarily impose 'circuit breakers' on stocks in the S&P 500 when they have fallen 10 per cent or more in a five-minute period. The SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission say they are still studying the crash, but don't yet understand it. And then there's the Greek crisis. Since the announcement of a nearly US$1 trillion bailout package for Greece and other fiscally strained eurozone countries, turmoil in global markets has not abated. Despite an upturn on Friday, stocks have been choppy; the dollar, Treasury bonds and gold prices have risen; and oil and the euro have plummeted.

Professional asset managers have been responding as best they can.

Robert C Doll, vice-chairman and global chief investment officer for equities at BlackRock, the investment management firm, says he thinks the American market is likely to remain relatively volatile for an extended period - and then resume its climb.

In addition to the angst caused by the flash crash, and the problems in Europe, Doll points to the bear market in China and the threat of economic slowdown there, as well as domestic issues in the United States. These include continuing uncertainty about regulatory reform, investigations into the activities of Goldman Sachs and other banks, and the unsettled state of the American economy. He says two other 'scenarios' are possible, but much less likely.

One is a global meltdown, with the Greek crisis morphing into 'Lehman II', the probability of which has been reduced by prompt action by European authorities. And the other is a quick resumption of the roaring bull market that took the S&P 500 up 80 per cent. But there are too many problems for that to be very likely in the next month or two, he said.

For long-term diversified investors, he said, it probably makes sense to ride out the storm, and, maybe, add to your holdings. 'Keep your shoulder harness on, and your seatbelt secured, and your life should be OK,' he said.

There are even reasons to be encouraged by the health of the global economy, said Larry Hatheway, chief economist and chief strategist at UBS Investment Bank. While he acknowledged the negative effects of the 'sovereign debt crisis' in Europe and myriad problems elsewhere, he also said: 'Signs of growth are very strong and incoming data is beating expectations, and this is true in all major economies, in all major regions around the world.'

Corporate profits are surging, Mr Hatheway said. Firms that cut costs in the recession are reaping immediate bottom-line benefits as revenue rises in a global recovery. And, finally, he said, central banks in Europe, the United States and Japan have kept short-term rates 'extraordinarily low, near zero.' 'We've got low rates, strong profits and strong growth,' he said.

'That's a pretty powerful combination to boost stock prices.' It makes sense for big institutions to engage in tactical manoeuvres - buying stocks that seem cheap because of a market drop, for example, and emphasising sectors that may benefit from economic shifts, said Derek L Young, chief investment officer at Fidelity's global asset allocation group. Fidelity is analysing the implications of a possible 'prolonged period of weakness in the eurozone'.

One thing you don't want to do, he said, 'whether you're a professional or an individual investor, is to make an emotional judgment about the marketplace.' - NYT


"When you are emotional, you make unwise decisions rapidly." - Warren Buffet

STI - Dead cat rebound one more time?


Due to panic short covering?



Straits Times 2,696.02 +45.41 +1.71%


DOW - Unexpected amazing recovery!

Dow dips below 10,000, then bounces back
Stocks plunge early, then bounce back;
Dow finishes above 10,000, but debt worries persist
 

Dow 10,043.75 -22.82 -0.23%

NEW YORK (AP) -- The Dow Jones industrials plunged below 10,000 to their lowest level of the year Tuesday before a late-day rebound that erased most of the losses if not lingering worries about Europe's debt crisis.



The Dow dropped more than 250 points after the opening bell and stayed under 10,000 most of the day, then charged back to finish down only 22 when signals from Washington suggested that banks would not be forced to sell their lucrative derivatives units as part of financial reform. The Standard & Poor's 500 index even managed a slight gain.



Tuesday, 25 May 2010

Dow Jones index plunges over 250 points at open

NEW YORK - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell heavily Tuesday, dropping 250 points or around 2.5 percent just minutes after the opening bell.


Concerns about the health of the eurozone and tensions between North Korea and South Korea sent investors fleeing from the stock market into safe-haven investments such as US government bonds.

By 1340 GMT, ten minutes after the open, the Dow was down 253.55 points (2.52 percent) to 9,813.02, smashing the symbolic 10,000 point barrier.

Similar hits were seen in the tech-rich Nasdaq index, which lost 61.22 points, or 2.7 percent to 2,152.33.

The broad-based S&P 500 was down 28.31 points, or 2.64 percent to 1,045.34.

Markets, rocked by fresh turmoil in the Spanish banking sector, were also hit by the prospect of severe austerity measures in the eurozone that could slam the brakes on the fragile global economic recovery.

"There a combination of factors pulling the rug out from under the market," said IG Index analyst David Jones.

"European debt concerns are brought to the fore again as four of Spain's banks have been pushed into a merger by the government in a move to try and strengthen the region's financial institutions.

Concerns that the European debt crisis might spill beyond stock markets -- hitting financial institution and consumer demand -- force a rise in save-haven US bonds.

"Treasuries are solidly higher amid some flight-to-safety buying," said Charles Schwab analysts.

Shares in Caterpillar, normally seen as a bellwether for broader economic health and consumer demand, traded down more than five percent.

Is the 2008 Greater Bear coming home?



Look at the speed of falling.
The market is even more fearful than in 2007 or 2008.
Sellers are feeling so hopeless and want to get out quickly either by cutting losses or
take whatever left on the table or we have more aggressive short sellers.

Just too much fear in the market.
So are you one of them?
Cut losses tomorrow; then go away peacefully to watch World cup?



Aus Group - on watch

STI - Bear market will be confirmed soon


If you have shorted big time



Straits Times 2,651.19 -72.68 -2.67%

STI down -12.2% in 41 days since its recent peak

World stock markets tumbled Tuesday, extending Wall Street's sell-off as the sliding euro fueled a new wave of pessimism about the global economy's health


SEMBCORP ESTABLISHES FIRST POWER PROJECT IN INDIA

Sembcorp acquiring 49% stake in Thermal Powertech Corp India for S$319m


SINGAPORE: Sembcorp Industries is taking a bite into India's growing energy market with a major stake in a power company there.


The local conglomerate said that its fully-owned subsidiary Sembcorp Utilities is acquiring a 49 per cent stake in Thermal Powertech Corporation India (TPCIL) for S$319 million.

A joint venture agreement has been signed between Sembcorp Utilities and Gayatri Energy Ventures (GEVL), which will hold 51 per cent stake in TPCIL, the firm said.

TPCIL is set to build, own and operate a coastal power plant in Krishnapatnam, SPSR Nellore District, Andhra Pradesh, India.

It will invest S$2.1 billion on a 1,320 megawatt coal-fired power plant in Krishnapatnam, which will serve the energy demand in the southern, western and northern regions of India

The plant will be operated by an O&M company, of which 70 per cent will be owned by Sembcorp while 30 per cent will be held by GEVL.

The full commercial operation of its two 660-megawatt units is expected to begin by end-2013.

The acquisition will be funded through internal funds and borrowings, Sembcorp said.

It is expected to be completed in mid-2010 once conditions for the implementation of power projects in India are satisfied.

The transaction is not expected to have a material impact on the earnings per share and net tangible assets per share of Sembcorp Industries in the current financial year. - CNA/vm

DOW - More fear strikes back!

Dow 10,066.57 -126.82 -1.24%

US stocks tumble in late sell-off on European crisis fears


NEW YORK: US stocks slumped on Monday on new fears over Europe's debt crisis, triggered by the rescue of a Spanish savings bank.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 126.82 points (1.24 percent) to end at 10,066.57, extending last week's massive losses when the blue-chip index shrank more than four percent and briefly fell below the sensitive 10,000-point level.

The bailout "exacerbated fears of continental debt contagion, and provided more than enough ammunition for the bears to claim the session," said analyst Andrea Kramer of Schaeffer's Investment Research.


It also triggered "another round of concerns regarding the health of the financial system in that country in spite of the existence of the huge EU/IMF rescue plan," said Frederic Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co.

"Investors will continue to follow the ongoing financial soap opera in Europe and the movement of the euro in response to changing investor expectations regarding how the sovereign debt situation plays out in Greece, Portugal, and Spain," he said.

Wall Street received a temporary boost Monday when industry data showed a jump in US existing-home sales. It cut losses by midday but a late sell-off on the European concerns pulled stocks down.

"A solid increase in existing-home sales helped repair some of the damage in late-morning trading, but sentiment seems to still be cautious amid the backdrop of the euro-area debt crisis, exacerbated by the weekend's government bailout of a Spanish regional bank," analysts at Charles Schwab & Co said.

Monday, 24 May 2010

Reality Check - Early retirement?


While many of us are planning to retire early but Govt doesn't think that many people can really afford to retire and  they are going to extend the official retirement age for us to worker longer.


Sunday, 23 May 2010

Kep Corp



Are you the money magician?

Eight money archetypes

So are you the money magician with the Secret of Compounding?

This is the ideal type and every one should learn and move toward this type.

  • Armed with the knowledge of the past
    •  Be a ever-learning student of the market and follows financial and companies news closely.
  • Made peace with his personal history, and understands that his source of power exists within, in his ability to see and live the truth of who he is
    • Understand the power of Mind, Money and Method in investing or trading
      • Your size of capital and investment goals should determine your investing strategies and risks control in your investing time frame.

Investing in STI defensive stocks - May be just another Market Myth

Can investing in STI's defensive stocks with good dividend yield really shield us from the pain of falling portfolio value?

E.g. A portfolio of market perceived defensive stocks or the likes of defensive stocks such SPH, SingTel, Starhub, SMRT, SingPost, and etc with good dividend yield.


Thank to the world of blogging that helps us to learn and share experiences.

A Case Study of An Experienced Retail Investor

His portfolio of  Singtel, SingPost and Cambridge

Singtel and SingPost are market perceived defensive stocks with good dividend yield.How does it perform against STI?


Portfolio's Total Gain (Realized Gain + Unrealized P&L) down by -26.2% from its recent peak while STI down by -10.5% from its recent peak. The drop in portfolio is more severe than the drop in STI.

Thinking aloud
  • The market perceived defensive stocks with good dividend yield may not really help much in a bear market.
  • Avoid concentration in just a few defensive stocks. Diversify into more sectors may actually help to limit the bad fall.

Making buy-and-hold investing work

Go ahead and invest for the long haul, but lock in your profits once your targeted return is achieved

By Vasu Menon


(Createwealth8888: Similar to the strategy of Createwealth8888 - Short-Term Trading and Long-Term Investing)

The success of any investment strategy depends, among other things, on when you make your foray into markets, whether you overpaid for your investment and if you had locked in your profit when your targeted return is met.

THE extreme volatility in global stock markets over the past three years has raised questions about the wisdom of a buy-and-hold investment strategy, epitomised by one of the world's best investors, Warren Buffett.

Mr Buffett's investment philosophy of buying outstanding companies at a fair price and holding them for long periods is often cited as a strategy for successful investing. No doubt, Mr Buffet has done very well with this strategy, and it has made him one of the richest men in the world. But does the strategy still work in this new age of investing, where significant uncertainty and volatility appear to have become fixtures in the marketplace?

A look at the Chicago Board of Options Exchange's VIX index shows that market volatility has increased significantly over the past three years after the onset of the US sub-prime crisis in 2007.

The US sub-prime crisis and the debt woes in Europe have highlighted deep-seated problems in Western economies and financial systems, which could take several years to resolve. The dislocation and uncertainties posed by these problems are likely to resurface regularly in the coming years, causing intermittent turbulence in financial markets and sharp pullbacks.

Given this prognosis, does it make sense for investors to take a strategic or long-term view of their investments or should they be trading markets instead, to get the most out of their money?

While more turbulence and market volatility seem a surety, the question that investors have to ask is whether markets are likely to trend higher over the next few years or if the uptrend will stall and give way to a bear market.

No one can predict this with certainty; but if investors are comfortable that economies are on a gradual mend and earnings of companies will continue to recover, then fundamentals should eventually prevail. This, coupled with still attractive medium-term valuations, should help markets head higher, even though the road ahead will be a bumpy one.

Despite the uncertainties looming on the horizon, there is a role for both strategic and tactical investments in one's portfolio. It is important for investors to be very clear about their objectives from the onset, and be disciplined and unemotional about their investments.

It is perfectly alright to trade in markets, but limit it to a small portion of your portfolio and set realistic targets. If you are aiming for, say, a 30 per cent return in a short span of time, this may be unrealistic. However, a 5 per cent target may be something that is more realistic and achievable in the short term. Also with tactical investments, be sure to set loss limits to minimise losses.

However, the bulk of one's investments should still be invested with a strategic view of at least three to five years.

(Createwealth8888: Similar to the strategy of Createwealth8888 - Short-Term Trading and Long-Term Investing. I use Pillow Strategies for my Long-Term Investing without using my own capital)

For strategic investments, even though you may start off investing with a view of say five years, it does not mean that you have to stay invested for the full period. This is where many investors get it wrong with the buy-and-hold strategy.

A cardinal mistake that many investors make is to set off investing for the long haul, with a certain return in mind, but they do not take profit when their target is achieved because they get overcome by greed and hold on to their investment, hoping to make even more gains.

If your investment objective is to make a return of say 8 per cent per annum over a five-year period, it works out to a targeted total return of 40 per cent. Now if for some reason, you make that return in say one year or two years instead of five years due to a sharp rally in the markets, like we saw for many bourses in the past 12 months, then it is probably best to sell and lock in your profits when you have hit your target, even if it is well before your five-year time horizon.

The fact of the matter is that, unless you take profit, you will never realise your gains, which could wither away if markets experience a downturn subsequently.

Let's take Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index (STI), for example. It was trading at around the 800 level in September 1998 and currently stands at around 2,800, representing a significant 250 per cent total return in almost 12 years.

However, an investor who had ploughed his money into the STI in September 1998 could have done even better if he had locked in profits just 15 months later as the index had surged more than three-fold to about 2,600 in January 2000, at the height of the technology fervour.

The gains would have been much smaller if the investor had held on to his investment and cashed out after four to five years, as the STI fell significantly after the technology bubble burst in early 2000.

On the other hand, if an investor was swayed by the market frenzy during the Internet boom in January 2000 and made his foray into the STI then, he could be sitting on only a small gain despite buying-and-holding for more than 10 years, as the index is currently trading just 200 points above the 2,600 level.

The chances of success are likely to be lower if you indulge in indiscriminate investing, buying the flavour of the month at any price, and holding it no matter what. In essence, the success of any investment strategy depends, among other things, on when you make your foray into markets, whether you overpaid for your investment and if you had locked in your profit when your targeted return is met.

A buy-and-hold strategy is premised on the assumption that you stand to enjoy better returns if you invest for the long haul. Time increases the probability of achieving better returns, but it is not a guarantee. So go ahead and invest for the long haul, but hedge your bets by locking in your profits once your desired return is achieved. In other words, buy-and-hold until your investment meets your targeted return. Once your target is met, be disciplined about selling and locking in your profit.

(Createwealth8888: Be Far Better At Selling Than At Buying? - Revisit )

There should always be an exit strategy for whichever investment strategy you subscribe to, and buy-and-hold is no exception. If the original premise for your investment changes and the fundamentals take a significant turn for the worse, it may be better to liquidate your holdings before your investment horizon runs its full course, even if it means suffering losses.

Saturday, 22 May 2010

A history of market bubbles and crashes

Kingsmen - More margin of safety soon?

Portfolio Management - Your Investing Capital

LP's Reality check 2

LP said "Drum roll please....... Ladies and gentlemen, I need 140k by end of the year. Hmm, based on what I have now and my savings target by end of the year, most likely I will be able to hit 85% of the target without any help from the market. THAT is quite reassuring. This means that I can tap maybe 10k of my reserves to average down some holdings, but when the market rebounds, I'll have to take an equivalent amount or more of my capital out. In other words, USE SPARINGLY."

Do you need to liquidate some of your investment when you need cash to meet near-term expenses?
 
I believe it is not uncommon for some retail investors to think that they can easily liquidate some of their investment at profit when they need cash to meet near-term expenses.
 
Reality Check 3

Don't ever come to the stock market and expecting the market to help you to meet your near-term expenses when the needs arise.
 
When you are already in the stock market, your only defense against any panic selling is your holding power during the Bear Raid and the small consolations for your misery come from your stock dividends.
 
So it is wise to invest only with money that is not needed for next five years and then only you are emotionally steady enough to face the future bulls and bears.
 

"Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market." - Warren Buffet.  

"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks." - John (Jack) Bogle
 
Take note of wise men's advice.

Noble - Some distance to go for my lunchboxes


SEMBCORP COMMENCES TENDER OFFER TO ACQUIRE ALL OUTSTANDING


Reversal next week?

SINGAPORE, May 21, 2010 – Sembcorp Industries Ltd (Sembcorp) today announces that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Sembcorp Utilities Pte Ltd (Sembcorp Utilities) has commenced a tender offer for all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Cascal N.V. (Cascal) (NYSE: HOO), a New York Stock Exchange-listed company and leading provider of water and wastewater services, for an offer price of US$6.75 per share if at least 80% of the issued andoutstanding Shares of Cascal on a fully diluted basis are validly tendered and not withdrawn (the "80% Condition").

What if the Bear market begins?

Peter Drucker once said, “What gets measured, gets managed.”

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results". said Albert Einstein

Thinking aloud ....
  • STI is down -10.5% from its recent peak on 14 Apr 10 at 3020
  • Portfolio is down -6.5% from its recent peak.
Stock Market Is War - Part 4

Yup. I am getting ready to activate the 1st batch of reservists if the Bears continue to press on.


DOW - Late gain may be just short covering?


Dow 10,193.39 +125.38 +1.25%


NEW YORK (AP) -- The stock market had another tumultuous ride this week as disarray in Europe heightened fears of a global economic slowdown. Despite a late-day comeback on Friday, major stock indexes are down about 10 percent from the peak they reached in late April.


Declines of that size are known as a "correction." They are normal during a bull market and are even seen as a healthy way for a market to regain its bearings after a long period of uninterrupted gains. The correction that started this week is the first for the bull market that began in March of last year.

Whether the correction has mostly run its course or turns into a bear market, defined as a decline of 20 percent or more, is anyone's guess. Stock indexes ended with solid gains Friday after starting the day lower and dipping below 10,000; the Dow closed up 125 points.

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 376 points Thursday, its worst one-day drop in more than a year. Stocks are now about where they were in early February and down 2 percent for the year.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Let's see how STI perform on Monday - is the major correction over? What are your plan going forward?

Friday, 21 May 2010

Petrobras share move gets nod

Brazilian state-run oil giant Petrobras said today its board approved an increase in its capital base, a necessary step for a massive share offering to help fund a $220 billion four-year investment plan.


The company may issue up to 2.4 billion preferred shares, compared with 200 million previously, and 3.2 billion voting shares, according to the new limits set by the board. Petrobras' statute barred the company from issuing voting shares before.

The new limits on share issuance will go to a general shareholders vote on 22 June.

Petrobras suffered several recommendation downgrades by stock analysts in recent weeks over uncertainty created by a government-backed oil-for-shares capital plan that the company says could bring in $25 billion in new cash to fund exploration of the vast pre-salt fairway.

The company said the board approval of new issuance limits doesn't mean it plans to sell the entire amount of stock at once as it still needs congressional approval for the oil-for-shares plan.

Petrobras most-traded preferred shares firmed 0.4% to 27.53 reais in early morning trade today, while the voting shares were up 1% to 31.37 reais, compared with a 1.6% jump in the benchmark Bovespa index, a Reuters report said.
---------------------

Createwealth8888:

Positive for Kep Corp and SML

SML - Not too bad today


Like Kep Corp, not sure why the sellers are so desperate in throwing them out?

Swiber wins South Asia deal worth US$618m

Award follows last week's contract of US$17-US$27m


SWIBER Holdings, an integrated construction and support services provider to the offshore industry, said it has been awarded a deal worth approximately US$618 million by a major oil and gas operator in South Asia.

Mr Goh: Latest contract is the biggest Swiber has won in a consortium bid

Announcing this yesterday, the group said this represents the single largest contract it has secured in a consortium bid to date. It did not disclose who awarded the deal.

The scope of work comprises the design, engineering, procurement, fabrication, transportation, installation and commissioning of major platforms, said Swiber.

The work is expected to be completed in Q2 2012.

'As our fifth contract win for 2010, this very significant contract win gives a major boost to the strong momentum of our recent contract wins,' said Raymond Goh, executive chairman and group chief executive officer of Swiber.

'Just last week we announced a contract for the transportation and installation of heavy structures. We continue to enhance our position as a one-stop service provider for the region's leading oil and gas players,' he added.

The contract Swiber announced last week was worth between US$17 million to US$27 million, and came from an oil and gas operator in South-east Asia.

Swiber currently has a fleet of 43 support and construction vessels, comprising 34 offshore vessels and 9 construction vessels.

It reported a net profit of US$8.03 million in the first quarter of 2010, 18 per cent lower than the net profit a year ago.

Revenue slipped 2.9 per cent to US$84.51 million.

Swiber is also seeking a proposed listing of its subsea services business on Catalist.

Swiber shares closed up one cent at 99.5 cents yesterday.

Kep Corp - Scary selldown today!


Kep Corp gap down 30 bids at opening - so scary!

Why such a desperate sell off?

STI - Bloody Friday as expected



Straits Times 2,701.20 -52.31 -1.90%

STI is down by -10.5% so it is techncially a major correction has taken place.
Next we will looking at Bear market when it continues to slide below -20%



Hopefully we don't end up there. LOL



Kep Corp - Got it back @ $8.50

Bloody Friday! Example of don't know how to die?

Yalor. Going for Round 93

DOW - Blood on Street for the 3rd day!


Why you didn't hear the SELL around you and get OUT?

Why did you BUY?

Dow 10,068.01 -376.36 -3.60%

U.S. Stocks Sink Most in Year on New Uncertainty

Stocks logged their biggest drop of the year Thursday as investors worried about two events coming Friday — a German vote on the EU bailout and options expiration.

Plus, a vote in the Senate to end debate on financial reform cleared the path for a final vote tonight or tomorrow, which added another layer of selling pressure.

Thursday, 20 May 2010

Poor Wilmar - Double whammy!


Wilmar kena whacked hard on its backside over the tax fraud allegations in a bad market condition.

Biosensor - This one surprisingly not falling at all!


It means buyers are stepping in to support it!

Noble's dividend: $0.050447

The Directors hereby announce that the Applicable Exchange Rate in respect of the Final Dividend is US$1.00 : S$1.4013. Based on the Applicable Exchange Rate, the Singapore dollar amount of the Final Dividend to be paid is Singapore 5.0447 cents per Shar
-----------------------------------------------------

Createwealth8888:

Under such market condition, I don't think I will be able to sell Noble any sooner so I have to be happy in collecting 2.5% average dividend yield.

STI - Bulls are dead!





Straits Times 2,753.51 -21.03 -0.76%

-SINGAPORE - Singapore share prices ended weaker on Thursday on growing fears European sovereign debt problems will crimp the broader global economic recovery.


Singapore's key Straits Times Index (STI) fell 0.8 percent or 21.03 points to close at 2,753.51. Overall volume traded was 1.75 billion shares worth S$1.81 billion. Losers outnumbered gainers 403 to 101.

Commodities stocks were hit particularly hard, as concerns about the impact of European financial problems on global trade pushed global commodities prices down on Wednesday as traders shed riskier investments.

Commodities group Noble Group slumped 5.0% to S$1.70 while Wilmar and Olam International dropped 4.5% to S$5.50 and 2.1% to S$2.34, respectively.
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