Predicting the Bottom?

We will always hear this in a bear market or down turn: Don't try to pick a market bottom. No one can.

Actually, trying to pick a bottom for stock speculators or value investors is not really that serious if they got it wrong. It is not too difficult to recapitalize and try again to pick another bottom. Wrong again, save hard, recapitalize, and then one more try.

But, there is one group of investors or speculators who think they can PICK the bottom with one try. Who are they? The small capitalized property investors or speculators who think that they are good enough to pick the housing bottom and going in with just ONE BANG. Some even go in highly leveraged with a NOOSE round their neck.

Market wisdom: Don't try to pick a market bottom. No one can. For this worst recession, the path to recovery could be many years. Best is to plan for the worst scenarios.

Property is unlike stock. Stock price is naturally upward bias as the Management and Board is tasked with the roles and responsibilities to take the company continuously to a greater height. For property, there is a natural limit to stop its climb as government will intervene. For property price to drastically increase, a Greater Fool must come to push it up or a Greater Lover to come and fell deeply in love with it and pay at all costs.

If you do not have huge capital, then picking Bottom for stocks may be a better option. If you still can't thinking clearly. Hmm... go to the top of Bukit Timah and sit there, and don't come down if you haven't got an answer.